[Date Prev][Date Next][Thread Prev][Thread Next][Date Index][Thread Index]

Re: [amibroker] Re: Is there a way to get CCI to accept an array for periods?



PureBytes Links

Trading Reference Links

Howard,

First, my definition of a leading indicator is one that is predicting a future price pivot point as opposed to a lagging indicator that tries to determine that a pivot pint has occurred in the recent past.  Of course nobody can predict the future in the markets 100% of the time, so the use of leading indicators is based on probabilities and therefore good money management is key to success with them.

I have experimented with a number of such indicators.  The ones I like the best are created as trading bands based on the expectation that prices are cyclic in amplitude with several frequencies related to different timeframes.  I also use these with hand drawn support and resistance lines (I am still working on how to program these --truly an art form at present).  The other key is to look for volume spikes along with extremes of price to help differentiate the most likely pivot points that are are about to happen.  

Algorithms for leading indicators are more successful if you can accurately determine the character of the market --trending up, trending down, or range bound --then use different algorithms.  This determination is always a lagging indicator, so you don't get to take advantage of it at the beginning of a change in character, but the market usually stays in one mode for enough time to take advantage of it for several trades.  I am still working on doing better on this.

Of course a successful system can be created with only lagging indicators, but I find a combination of leading and lagging can be synergistic. 

I create many of my indicators by eye and simulated trading results shown graphically in real time.  I observe the prices, determine the ideal way to trade it, then look for clues in the charts for how to determine these trades algorithmically.  Several years of full time staring at charts, simulated trading, real trading, observing the methods of successful day traders, and working with AB algorithms and charts have given me quite an appreciation of the art and science of short term trading --in addition to the psychological components.  

I find that different markets have different trading profiles.  The most successful traders find their own trading style and specialize on one way of trading (with a proven edge) in one market, and do it over and over again.  At present, I am only working with the broad market futures like ES or ER.

As an aside: 
I would be further along with my AB system, but I have spent 90% of my time working on:
Making the AB UI more suitable to my type of system.
Making algorithms to clean up the data from suppliers.  
Finding ways to speed up my algorithms to make them run fast enough for complex analysis in realtime.

In all fairness to TJ, what I want and what he offered was not the same thing.  However,  AB has almost all the speed and flexibility I need to add the functionality to the UI  and RT charting for my purposes --though with a lot of experimentation, time to figure out how, extra AFL code, and with help from TJ and the members of this list.  I am certain that with time TJ will add all the missing pieces I desire to have ever more elegant solutions for day trading.

I will share pieces of my system that I think will have general benefit to AB users from time to time when I feel that I have them sufficiently debugged to solve more problems than they create.  :-)

Best regards,
Dennis

On Jan 4, 2008, at 2:07 PM, Howard B wrote:

Hi Dennis --

Can you tell us a little more about the indicators that you find are leading?

Thanks,
Howard
www.quantitativetradingsystems.com


On Jan 3, 2008 7:13 PM, Dennis Brown <see3d@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

Steve,

I have observed many day traders. What you say is true. However, 
there is an art to it that the traders themselves don't even 
recognize. It has become second nature to them like riding a 
unicycle when they are in the Zone.

It is a good idea to realize that a new person must develop that art 
first or he will just as surely blow up his account.

Working with indicators does not mean that they have to be lagging 
indicators. Leading indicators are also possible to create. After 
all that is what you are doing in your mind. ;-)

Best regards,
Dennis



On Jan 3, 2008, at 5:37 PM, scourt2000 wrote:

>
> I offer up this kind of information to help give someone what they
> want. But, in this instance, I'd like mention what's far better than
> any of this CCI/RSI/MACD/Stochastic/blah-blah "stuff", adaptive or
> otherwise.
>
> This is what works since the dawn of trading (I'm speaking mainly to
> you e-mini futures traders out there who are getting too caught up in
> indicators and trying to massage them to infinity in an effort to
> reduce your loss percentage):
>
> Go to a price chart, NOT an indicator. Find support and resistance.
> Buy the stronger supports. Sell the stronger resistances. Scalp the
> weaker ones. Trade heavier with the trend. Manage the trades.
>
> Your research is your confirmation. The better your research, the
> better your real-time performance will be. If you need "momentum
> confirmation" to get into a trade, then please never tell me that
> you're getting in 1-2 bars "ahead of the world" because I'm 1-2 bars
> ahead of YOUR world and what I'm doing is leading price, not
> following it from an indicator derived from price.
>
> There's no follow-up to this on my part. I'm not engaging anyone in
> an argument over this. I have seen literally 100's fall by the
> wayside in the daytrading e-mini world, playing around with
> indicators. The ones I consistently see still in the game and
> trading well are the ones who pay attention primarily to support and
> resistance from a price chart, not from some indicator.
>
> There are exceptions to any general rule. But your likelihood of
> winding up in the blown-out account list is much higher by playing
> with indicators instead of simple, common support and resistance
> through multiple timeframes.
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "scourt2000" <stevehite@xxx> wrote:
>>
>>
>> Bill,
>>
>> Sounds like you're interested in John Ehlers' work on adaptive
>> indicators that he explained in Chapter 22 of his book, "Rocket
>> Science for Traders". He took some common momentum indicators
>> (including the CCI) and coded them up to be adaptive in
> Tradestation
>> Easy Language.
>>
>> Also, you can find a couple of articles about this at
> tuckerreport.com
>>
>>
>> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "bilbo0211" <bilbod@> wrote:
>>>
>>> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Howard B" <howardbandy@> wrote:
>>>> For this statement:
>>>> somevar = CCI(parm);
>>>> "somevar" will be an array with one element for every bar of the
>>> data array,
>>>> the value of that element the result of applying the CCI
> function
>> to the
>>>> "average" of that bar ((H+L+C)/3), for the lookback length
>> of "parm".
>>>>
>>>> What problem are you trying to solve?
>>>>
>>>
>>> I want parm to be an array.
>>>
>>> What I am doing is trying to 'tune' the CCI to the dominant cycle
> in
>>> the market.
>>>
>>> Let me give you a simplistic example using moving averages.
>>>
>>> If you are trading a trending market (longer period dominant
> cycle),
>>> you want a longer period moving average to filter out the small
>> (high
>>> frequency) corrections that occur.
>>>
>>> In a trading range market (shorter period dominant cycle), you
> want
>> a
>>> shorter period moving average that can react more quickly to the
>>> shorter term changes in direction.
>>>
>>> I started by using the fft to estimate the dominant cycle but I
> had
>> a
>>> lot of trouble coding something useful so I switched to Ehler's
>>> estimate (using Laguerre filter, it's in the afl library).
>>>
>>> As crude as that estimate is, it improves the performance of the
>>> indicators I tried it on. If I could get a more accurate measure
> of
>>> the dominant cycle, I am confident it would improve performance
>> even more.
>>>
>>> That's why I want the period of the CCI to vary.
>>>
>>> I also don't see any point to include the C of a bar for intraday
>>> charts. I use CCIa((H+L)/2,period).
>>>
>>> Bill
>>>
>>
>

__._,_.___

Please note that this group is for discussion between users only.

To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to
SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com

For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check DEVLOG:
http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/

For other support material please check also:
http://www.amibroker.com/support.html




Your email settings: Individual Email|Traditional
Change settings via the Web (Yahoo! ID required)
Change settings via email: Switch delivery to Daily Digest | Switch to Fully Featured
Visit Your Group | Yahoo! Groups Terms of Use | Unsubscribe

__,_._,___