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[amibroker] Re: Trading system development question



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Howard, does your book teach any profitable trading systems, if not, 
where would you suggest one go to find one? --- In 
amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "polomorabe" <paul.moore@xxx> wrote:
>
> Thanks for the reply Howard.
> 
> I've just ordered the book. I'll wait until it arrives before asking
> more questions.
> 
> Paul
> 
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Howard B" <howardbandy@> wrote:
> >
> > Hi Paul --
> > 
> > I am a firm believer in performing statistical validation of 
trading
> > systems.  That means searching / optimizing over one set of data 
(the
> > in-sample data), then testing over a set of data that has not been
> used to
> > develop the system (the out-of-sample data).  Trading systems that
> show good
> > results over the out-of-sample data are more likely to trade well
> with real
> > money.  One of the things I have found is that trading systems 
that are
> > selected on maximum CAR often do not trade well out-of-sample -- 
but
> you may
> > have found systems that do.
> > 
> > Provided that your systems pass your validation tests, then you
> should be
> > very glad that you have a lot of candidates.  One way to handle 
this
> is to
> > group the stocks you are willing to trade into watch lists 
containing
> > perhaps ten stocks each.  Run your system as a portfolio test once
> for each
> > watch list and use the PositionScore feature of AmiBroker to
> determine the
> > best individual stock to trade.
> > 
> > There is a much more detailed explanation of testing and 
validation,
> > including setting up portfolios and using PositionScore in my 
book,
> > Quantitative Trading Systems.  You can learn more about the book 
at
> its web
> > site:
> > 
> > http://www.quantitativetradingsystems.com/
> > 
> > Thanks,
> > Howard
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > On 8/4/07, polomorabe <paul.moore@> wrote:
> > >
> > >   Hello,
> > >
> > > I've been following the postings on this forum since I first 
began
> > > using AB about two years ago, and thanks to the knowledge and 
sharing
> > > mentality of the posters here, my knowledge of AFL has increased
> > > greatly. I now have a question about trading system development.
> > >
> > > I've been getting experience with using the backtester, and I've
> > > identified some promising trading systems, one with a CAR of 
over
> > > 100%! During the backtest, I have limited the number of 
positions in
> > > the portfolio to 7, to reduce overtrading. However, when I take 
the
> > > same system from backtesting, and use it as an exploration, I 
get a
> > > huge number (>200) of trading candidates at the start of each 
trading
> > > day.
> > >
> > > My question is: without asking for details of specific trading
> > > systems, how do other users of AB reduce the number of stock
> > > candidates during the Exploration? During backtesting, I've 
found that
> > > when I try to constrain the backtester to attempt to reduce the 
number
> > > of candidates, it reduces the number of backtested trades but 
also the
> > > percentage of winning trades.
> > >
> > > Maybe this is wishful thinking, but for me a winning system is 
one
> > > that has a winning trades percentage > 50%, with a max system 
drawdown
> > > > 15%, and generating about 10 stock candidates per day.
> > >
> > > I'd be interested to hear of other's experiences and views.
> > >
> > > Many thanks,
> > > Paul
> > >
> > >  
> > >
> >
>




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