Hello Ton,
> BTW if you know the book of David Aronson -
"Evidence Based TA" - my
remark about randomness and TA is where EBTA is
all about.
Yes, I know it, really a great book, lot of precious
insight into
statistics in general and into the data-mining bias in
particular, I
wished I knew it earlier : )
For the ones not owning
the book, this paper is an excellent start on
the data mining bias:
http://kdl.cs.umass.edu/people/jensen/papers/mlj2000.pdf
but
the experiments in EBTA are much more useful for the trader ..
>I
have mailed 10 time series of stocks to several technical
analysts
>around the world. Most of them in the Belenux. Question was to
select
>the 4 correct stocks. 6 were home made stocks with a randomizer.
Of
>the 49 answers I got the result was that only 1 analyst could
select
>the correct combination of 4 stocks. He could not tell me why
he
>elected these stocks. Most of them or 38 had zero correct stocks,
5
>only 1 correct, 4 had 2 correct stocks and 1 had 3 correct
stocks
>selected.
Interesting, there are many textbooks
containing artifical price time
series following random walks, and indeed
they look very real ..
Regards,
Nicolas