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[amibroker] Re: Monte Carlo Simulation



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I don't think your ideas or practices nullify anything ... At worst 
they supplement it ...

While I'm not a huge fan of MCS, the methodology does provide 
additional information over and above what a straight backtest 
provides ...

It's my contention however that this additional information while 
beneficial is no substitute for out of sample testing regardless of 
how it is performed.

--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "rhelfer123" <rhelfer99@xxx> wrote:
>
> Fred,
> 
> Yes, by "black box" I mean a mechanical system. In the case of my 
> post, I mean a mechanical system where the code is available, 
since 
> you would be creating the black box, and not someone else.
> 
> Entry and exit points will always be clear in one sense because 
these 
> are ultimately dependent on physical buy and sell signals from the 
> trading system. On the other hand, how the entry and exit is 
handled 
> may be purely discretionary... where the stop is set, when profits 
are 
> taken, trailing stop or regular stop, scaled trading, etc -- or 
this 
> could be purely mechanical. Your choice.
> 
> I personally find my best money management methods to be primarily 
for 
> controlling my emotions, which is why I prefer to leave money 
> management out of the mechanical portion of a system. Money 
> management, however, is what will usually ultimately determine a 
> trader's profitability, in my experience. I have taught many 
people 
> with no real trading system to trade much more profitably by 
simply 
> using scaled trading and stop orders, for example.
> 
> Everything I have posted is under the knowledge that it is my 
personal 
> approach to system analysis, and I find it works best for my 
needs. I 
> understand my posts may inadvertently nullify some of the work you 
> have posted here, but my intent is not to single you out and 
disregard 
> your work. There will always be many people who will want to use 
your 
> work. I also build fully mechanical systems, and I use your work 
to 
> support these efforts, for example. 
> 
> Your contributions here have been most beneficial to many AB 
users. I 
> am one of them.
> 
> Thanks,
> 
> rhelfer
> 
> 
> 
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Fred" <ftonetti@> wrote:
> >
> > By "black box", I assume you mean a mechanical system ... 
yes ? ... 
> > Assuming of course that one can see the rules inside the box and 
> they 
> > aren't open to interpretation then the box isn't black or even 
> > gray ...
> > 
> > How do you objectively identify the entry and exit points of 
trades 
> > and collect the statistics for use in an MCS of a discretionary 
> > system ?
> >
>




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