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I don't think your ideas or practices nullify anything ... At worst
they supplement it ...
While I'm not a huge fan of MCS, the methodology does provide
additional information over and above what a straight backtest
provides ...
It's my contention however that this additional information while
beneficial is no substitute for out of sample testing regardless of
how it is performed.
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "rhelfer123" <rhelfer99@xxx> wrote:
>
> Fred,
>
> Yes, by "black box" I mean a mechanical system. In the case of my
> post, I mean a mechanical system where the code is available,
since
> you would be creating the black box, and not someone else.
>
> Entry and exit points will always be clear in one sense because
these
> are ultimately dependent on physical buy and sell signals from the
> trading system. On the other hand, how the entry and exit is
handled
> may be purely discretionary... where the stop is set, when profits
are
> taken, trailing stop or regular stop, scaled trading, etc -- or
this
> could be purely mechanical. Your choice.
>
> I personally find my best money management methods to be primarily
for
> controlling my emotions, which is why I prefer to leave money
> management out of the mechanical portion of a system. Money
> management, however, is what will usually ultimately determine a
> trader's profitability, in my experience. I have taught many
people
> with no real trading system to trade much more profitably by
simply
> using scaled trading and stop orders, for example.
>
> Everything I have posted is under the knowledge that it is my
personal
> approach to system analysis, and I find it works best for my
needs. I
> understand my posts may inadvertently nullify some of the work you
> have posted here, but my intent is not to single you out and
disregard
> your work. There will always be many people who will want to use
your
> work. I also build fully mechanical systems, and I use your work
to
> support these efforts, for example.
>
> Your contributions here have been most beneficial to many AB
users. I
> am one of them.
>
> Thanks,
>
> rhelfer
>
>
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Fred" <ftonetti@> wrote:
> >
> > By "black box", I assume you mean a mechanical system ...
yes ? ...
> > Assuming of course that one can see the rules inside the box and
> they
> > aren't open to interpretation then the box isn't black or even
> > gray ...
> >
> > How do you objectively identify the entry and exit points of
trades
> > and collect the statistics for use in an MCS of a discretionary
> > system ?
> >
>
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