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[amibroker] Re: Your 5 most important backtest statistics



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Use Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) first, above all else. If you don't 
get worthwhile results with that, don't even waste your time with 
other stats. I'm speaking from a pure statistics point of view. If 
you don't do MCS testing, it will be like building a hot rod from 
scratch, but never actually looking under the hood to make sure it 
goes fast.

Beyond that, good stats include K Ratio. That's my fav.

>From my notes...

a.	COMPLETE SINGLE BULL-BEAR CYCLES
 i.	In Sample = 4/1/2002 - 2/1/2004
 ii.	In Sample = 11/1/1998 - 10/1/2001
b.	ULTRA-BEAR CYCLES
 i.	In Sample = 10/1/2000 - 10/1/2002
c.	ULTRA-BULL CYCLES
 i.	In Sample = 1/1/1996 - 4/1/2000
 ii.	In Sample = 4/1/2003 - 2/1/2006

and also...

d.	ROI ratio = ( net profit / maximum trade drawdown )
 i.	If comparing ROI ratio between systems, must use same 
historical data for each system test. Look for highest ROI ratio.
e.	Sharpe Ratio = measure of risk adjusted ROI.
 i.	Above 1.0 is good, above 2.0 is very good, 3.0 is excellent
 ii.	Decreasing ratio means system losses hurt more than gains 
help
f.	K-Ratio = Detects inconsistency in returns. Measures both 
profitability and consistency of returns and then returns them in 
one single number.
 i.	Should be 1.0 or more.
 ii.	Ratio dependent on length of historical data used.
g.	Pessimistic Return to Risk Ratio (PRRR) = Large positive 
returns are not penalized like with the Sharpe Ratio.
 i.	ADD = avg daily drawdown, AWT = avg winning trade, ALT = avg 
losing trade, Wins = number of winning trades, Losers = number of 
losing trades
 ii.	PessimisticNet = AWT*(Wins-sqrt(Wins))-ALT*(Losers+sqrt
(Losers)
 iii.	PRRR = PessimisticNet/ADD

Have fun,

~rhelfer



--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Michael.S.G." <OzFalconAB@xxx> 
wrote:
>
> Hi Fred,
>     As per previous posts, The common stats are realy just a start 
> point. The ability to test said formula/system in a controlled 
> environment for more detailed analysis is what the rest of the 
framework 
> is designed for.
> 
> Thanks for your list too.
> 
> ATB
>     Michael.



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