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[amibroker] Re: Quotes Prediction: Hurst CMA, PolyFit, TrigFit, AR, EMA/DEMA/TEMA prediction,etc



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With regards to the code you posted in the library ... I get 
subscript out of range messages for line 247 ...

--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Tom Tom" <michel_b_g@xxx> wrote:
>
> From: tomy_frenchy <michel_b_g@xxx>
> 
> 
> Hello,
> 
> After the technicals post about quotes predictions (hurst, 
polyfit) on 
> amibroker software, i was asking me if someone here explore 
different 
> prediction technics and if he could give us his feedback on 
accuracy of 
> prediction depending the forecast tools. It will be very nice.
> 
> 1- Prediction with AR model
> 
> For now I am working on AR (Auto-Regressive model) prediction. I 
post code 
> here : http://www.amibroker.com/library/detail.php?id=757
> 
> You will find a jpg picture joined to this mail. The data before 
the 
> vertical bar are those used to compute the AR coefficient and 
behind the 
> vertical bar are those predicted (and out-of-sample). The data 
before the 
> verticale bar colored in blue are predicted too (because of CMA 
for 
> denoising who lag) but are in-sample.  So i resume (sorry for my 
english 
> don't be affraid ; ) ) :
> 
> Green : computed CMA in-sample, Blue: predicted with AR model in-
sample, 
> Red: predicted with AR model out-sample
> 
> Prevision are sometimes good (if data present enough cyclic 
pattern and 
> number of AR coeff is enough high to take in consideration  the 
patterns). 
> Somtimes they are wrong too, as always héhé : ))
> 
> CMA is used here with what i call a false "T3 zerolag". So it 
denoise the 
> data and keep the averaging synchronized with the data.
> 
> 
> 
> 2- Prediction with PolyFit / Hurst CMA
> 
> Thanks to Fred for this very nice code : 
> http://www.amibroker.com/library/detail.php?id=741
> 
> Thanks too to  Andy for this code : 
> http://www.amibroker.com/library/detail.php?id=753
> 
> CMA is used here (manually (hurst de) or automaticaly (cycle 
highlighter)) 
> to extract one (cycle highlighter) or differents (hurst de) MA 
with 
> different periods wich keeps synchronized with data, and 
prediction is made 
> with polyfit.
> 
> More information on the recent post named "Hurst Channel's".
> 
> 
> 
> 3- Prediction with EMA/DEMA/TEMA (seems not interesting to go to  
higher 
> order prediction)
> 
> I posted code for DEMA prediction here : 
> http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/message/102710
> 
> Principe: an EMA or DEMA or TEMA is computer. From this is 
computer a linear 
> regression or higher order regression. Data are predicted using 
the result 
> of this regression.
> 
> Forecasting is very poor and can indicate only the trend to come. 
It cannot 
> show future turning point and other variation, nor show 
pattern/cycle 
> repetition.
> 
> More information : http://www.duke.edu/~rnau/411avg.htm ,  
> 
http://espse.ed.psu.edu/edpsych/faculty/rhale/statistics/statlets/use
rmanual/sect6_3_3.htm
> 
> 
> 
> 4- Prediction with different CMA automaticaly computed (CMA, 
downsampling 
> and  interpolation, trigfit)
> 
> Post about his can be found here : 
> http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/message/102530
> 
> For now it seems a very interresting approach. It could take 
automaticaly 
> pattern in consideration and is more consistent than AR prediction 
i think 
> wich sometimes can provides some divergent prediction (like 
polyfit with 
> high order).
> 
> Fred could you tell us more about this work and maybe post some 
code about 
> it ? Will be very nice.
> 
> 
> 
> 5- Another prediction tehnics
> 
> We can find non-linear prediction (Kalman, Network prediction, 
etc...)... 
> seems hard to compute. Someone try this ?
> 
> For linear prediction : ARMA, ARIMA, Trigonometric Fit, ARCH, 
GARCH (for 
> volatility prediction)
> 
> Based on spectral analizis to extract cycle :
> 
> for several cycle : FFT (different version exist depending speed, 
> resolution), Density Spectrum Power,
> 
> Prony, Pisarenko, Wavelet
> 
> for the main cycle : MESA (Ehlers Dominant Cycle Period), CMA
> 
> Pisarenko method seems to offer better resolution from FFT and 
less 
> constrain, but suffer that is is more difficult for computing it.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> So can you provide us some information on your work on prediction 
with 
> amibroker. Tips, code, experience, trading result in applying 
prediction and 
> anything who can help to go forward in this topic is welcome.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> Mich.
> 
> _________________________________________________________________
> Retrouvez tout en un clin d'?il avec Windows Desktop Search ! 
> http://desktop.msn.fr/
>




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