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Allan,
This is very interesting.
Thanks for posting your experiences.
There is no better way to elucidate the subject to newcomers than
with case histories, expecially when they are critiqued by
experienced traders.
One thing they can take from your post is that they should set their
PA% target in the low-mid teens or better, as a starting point, and
then seek to better that later.
As a business proposition <20% PA is not worth getting out of bed
for when you discount the hours of personal effort required, on top
of a return on the capital invested (these are consistent mean net
annual returns I am talking about).
My observation is that the most common failing of aspiring traders
is that they only pay lip service to their own fundamental creeds.
We say one thing and do something else altogether.
In these examples, traders who ignore the results of correctly
conducted analysis and/or do not follow every rule of a properly
constructed trading system every time, are not system traders.
They might be successful traders but they are definitely not system
traders.
Thanks also to S and Jerry who provided excellent contributions.
(WARNING: the following contains opinionated and speculative comment)
I am not a person who needs to defer to extraneous authorities so I
am busily working to construct my own trading style based on my own
trading philosophies.
It's a work in progress.
Of course I don't try to reinvent the wheel and I do respect the
past giants of TA theory and practice as well as other experienced
traders.
Like all objective researchers I am reluctant to *go into print*
until my *work* is complete, triple checked and has plenty of
confirmation from *real* world examples.
I can tell you that my preliminary findings scoff at many of the
sacred cows of trading culture.
I am now rushing to read a good cross section of the published works
because I am looking to either find agreement elsewhere or simply
confirm I am on my own.
"Why aren't other Technical Analysts making these observations?", I
ask myself.
For the benefit of the Ami community I can give a small peak under
the covers.
Published Trading Psychologists make the Theory of Relativity sound
like the Readers Digest.
Published Technicians give us the Theory of Relativity when all we
need is the Readers Digest version.
Technical Analysis theory has been hijacked by the academics.
Everything we need to say about chart partterns can be written in a
very small book, except for the pages of diagrams that allow us to
confirm what patterns we are talking about.
Chart patterns are easily tested for statistically significant
variation and variance from random behaviour and yes, some patterns
do pass the test.
Everything we need to know about money management can be written in
a a few pages.
To be conservative I will allow for a few diagrams as well.
The jury is still out on cyclic trading.
Of course, time may prove me to be an utter fool, but foolishness is
not something I have any fear of.
BrianB2 =8-)
P.S. Sorry no further explanation will be provided.
No emails please.
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, allansn@xxx wrote:
>
> Hi Jim,
>
> What I find interesting about various pattern
recognitions such as Edwards and Magee type formations and
candlesticks is when you backtest them in isolation they simply show
no predictive power.I am predominantly refferring to Candlesticks as
I have done extensive testing in that area.
>
> Yet,I have friends who strictly trade off them with western price
patterns and trendlines and return well over 50% annually.
>
> Others I know use them as a filter to their systematic trading,and
they know full well that Candlesticks do not backtest well.But they
wont trade without them
>
> Interesting how the mind works
>
> Allan
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: jwmc107
> Date: Thursday, October 19, 2006 7:48 pm
> Subject: [amibroker] Re: Scan for Bulkowski's chart patterns
> To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
> >
> > Hi Joe, Brian, Alan and others,
> >
> > Here are Tom's trading results:
> > Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
> > Tomas 14.80% 18.70% 9.00% 13.50% 29.10% 15.40%
> > S&P500 -10.10% -13.00% -23.40% 28.69% 10.88% 4.91%
> > Nasdaq -39.30% -21.10% -31.50% 50.00% 8.60% 1.40%
> > DJIA -6.20% -7.10% -16.80% 28.28% 5.31% 1.72%
> >
> > The results speak that the system works. Hope that someone can
> > make
> > the code available, as I dont have any programming skill myself.
> >
> > There are WL codes available, we can just translate it to AFL.
> >
> > Regards,
> > Jim
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Joe Landry" wrote:
> > >
> > > Allan
> > > I had to think back a bit. Well I'm schiz'ed, a
> > fundamentalist
> > and a technician. Making money on fundamentals right
> > now(Validea)
> > but I know what
> > > will preserve it is technical analysis.(or risk management?)
> > >
> > > What might be an interesting side note, we had Nelson Freeburg
> > of
> > Formula Research give a talk to us last Sat. and
> > > he related as to how his first investment book while he was at
> > Columbia was Martin Pring's early TA book. This led to his
> > development of a first "system" called Primas (Pring Moving
> > Average
> > System). I've got a cam video of his talk on our server, let
> > me
> > know if you'd like to down load it.
> > >
> > > Best regards
> > > JOE
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: allansn@
> > > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Sent: Thursday, October 19, 2006 7:53 AM
> > > Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Scan for Bulkowski's chart
patterns
> > >
> > >
> > > Joe,
> > > I am shocked...I never would have taken you for a
> > closet "Edwards and Magee" man :)
> > >
> > > Allan
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: Joe Landry
> > > Date: Thursday, October 19, 2006 8:15 am
> > > Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Scan for Bulkowski's chart
patterns
> > > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> > > > I just dusted it off Dimitris' program again and was
> > stepping
> > > > through the
> > > > selections.
> > > > If you're not familiar with it you might want to check out
> > > > Anthony
> > > > Faragasso's charting script
> > > > as labelled below and in the program library. It's a good
> > > > companion for this
> > > > exploration.
> > > >
> > > > I tried my hand at on of his most successful patterns
> > called
> > > > "pipes" but was
> > > > not happy with the results.
> > > >
> > > > BTW Bulkowski has a newer paperback called Getting Started
> > in
> > > > Chart Patterns
> > > > pub within
> > > > the last year.
> > > >
> > > > As far as Thomas is concerned, I would be a potential
> > customer
> > > > for a set of
> > > > Bulkowski pattern recognition
> > > > routines if such were to be produced and put up for sale.
> > > >
> > > > Best regards
> > > > JOE
> > > > SECTION_BEGIN("Pattern Recog. Tony Farragasso");
> > > >
> > > > // Name and Purpose ----------------- Faragasso Pattern
> > > > Recognition -----------------
> > > >
> > > > // Date 11/23/03
> > > >
> > > > // Source Anthony Faragasso
> > > >
> > > > // Type Indicator, Exploration, AB PT
> > > >
> > > > // Patterns Wedge, Broad, Upchannel, Bearish.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "brian.z123"
> > > > To:
> > > > Sent: Thursday, October 19, 2006 12:50 AM
> > > > Subject: [amibroker] Re: Scan for Bulkowski's chart patterns
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > Hello Jim,
> > > > >
> > > > > Do you mean the chart patterns from Bulkowskis
> > encyclopedia
> > > > (over 60
> > > > > patterns)?
> > > > >
> > > > > If you want to code them in AFL some have been done by
> > Dmitiris
> > > > > Tsokaki! s (Hello Dimitris, I hope the fish are jumping
> > into
> > your
> > > > > boat)....from the AFL library.
> > > > >
> > > > > Formula name: Pattern Recognition Exploration
> > > > > Author/Uploader: Dimitris Tsokakis - tsokakis [at]
oneway.gr
> > > > > Date/Time added: 2001-09-03 14:03:35
> > > > > Origin:
> > > > > Keywords:
> > > > > Level: medium
> > > > > Flags: exploration
> > > > >
> > > > > DISCLAIMER: Most formulas present in AFL on-line library
are
> > > > > submitted by the users and are provided here on an "as
> > is"
> > and "as
> > > > > available" basis. AmiBroker.com makes no representations or
> > > > > warranties of any kind to the contents or the operation
> > of
> > material
> > > > > presented here. We do not maintain nor provide technical
> > > > support for
> > > > > 3rd party formulas.
> > > > >
> > > > > Download formula file | Delete formula
> > > > >
> > > > > Description:
> > > > > Paste the code in Automatic Analysis and Explore All
> > Stocks
> > > > for the
> > > > > last date of your data.
> > > > > In Results click twice a label , for example "a TR" and
> > you
> > will
> > > > > collect all ascending Triangles marked with an "1".
> > > > > This Exploration recognizes the following patterns:
> > > > > +Ascending Wedges "aW"
> > > > > +Descending Wedges "dW"
> > > > > + ascending Triangles "a TR"
> > > > > +descending Triangles "d TR"
> > > > > +ascending channel "a ll"
> > > > > +descending channel "d ll"
> > > > > +almost horizontal channel "ll"
> > > > > +Converging Support and Resistance
> > > > > +Diverging Support and Resistance
> > > > > +N/A, ie examples not belonging to any above category.
> > > > > You may decrease sensitivity, changing
> > > > > per=3;
> > > > > with another percentage higher than 3.
> > > > > For Indicator Builder paste the code in Comments
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > It would be an interesting project to code all of the
> > major
> > patterns
> > > > > (if it hasn'! t been d one already).
> > > > >
> > > > > There is also a formula there for identifying candle
> > patterns
> > > > by Top
> > > > > Gun Herman van den Bergen....
> > > > >
> > > > > Converting candles to bar chart patterns would be another
> > > > > interesting project.
> > > > > I'll do both projects if I run out of things to do.
> > > > >
> > > > > I haven't tried either of the formulas....I just noticed
> > them there
> > > > > the other day so passing it on to you.
> > > > >
> > > > > BrianB2.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "jwmc107" wrote:
> > > > >>
> > > > >>
> > > > >>
> > > > >> Is there any AFL code to scan for Bulkowski's chart
> > patterns and
> > > > > to
> > > > >> share with?
> > > > >>
> > > > >> Thanks,
> > > > >> Jim
> > > > >>
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Please note that this group is for discussion between
> > users
> > only.
> > > > >
> > > > > To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail
> > directly
> > to
> > > > > SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
> > > > >
> > > > > For other support material please check also:
> > > > > http://www.amibroker.com/support.html
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Yahoo! Groups Links
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> >
> >
> >
> >
>
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