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Just out of curiousity,is it possible to have two non correlated trading techniques that show negative backtest results individually,but when combined produce above average returns...
I am over in Elite trader observing a candlestick debate,and trying to understand how "savvy" traders who fully acknowledge that candlepatterns fail miserably in backtests insist that they are a great confirming indicator..
Is there a method to this madness??
Allan
----- Original Message -----
From: sebastiandanconia
Date: Friday, October 20, 2006 10:33 am
Subject: [amibroker] Re: Scan for Bulkowski's chart patterns
To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> I've read about this kind of behavior before, and it's a problem for
> anyone who is trying to emulate the methods of successful (or
> allegedlysuccessful) traders. What is happening is that these
> traders aren't
> fully conscious of everything in their decision-making process. There
> are "soft" factors that are key to their success that AREN'T in their
> "written down" or "official" methods. And if every factor isn't
> included the method can't be accurately tested for validity.
>
> JMO, but I suspect that's one of the reasons it's so difficult for
> traders to duplicate the success of even legitimate, well-meaning
> system-sellers or "gurus." Maybe they really know something
> unique, or
> maybe they just had a run of luck when their "fuzzy" thinking
> paid off
> but that particular set of conditions won't ever be repeated.
>
>
> Luck,
>
> Sebastian
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, allansn@xxx wrote:
> >
> > Hi Jim,
> >
> > What I find interesting about various pattern recognitions
> such as Edwards and Magee type formations and candlesticks is
> when you
> backtest them in isolation they simply show no predictive
> power.I am
> predominantly refferring to Candlesticks as I have done extensive
> testing in that area.
> >
> > Yet,I have friends who strictly trade off them with western price
> patterns and trendlines and return well over 50% annually.
> >
> > Others I know use them as a filter to their systematic trading,and
> they know full well that Candlesticks do not backtest well.But
> they wont
> trade without them
> >
> > Interesting how the mind works
> >
> > Allan
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: jwmc107
> > Date: Thursday, October 19, 2006 7:48 pm
> > Subject: [amibroker] Re: Scan for Bulkowski's chart patterns
> > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> > >
> > > Hi Joe, Brian, Alan and others,
> > >
> > > Here are Tom's trading results:
> > > Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
> > > Tomas 14.80% 18.70% 9.00% 13.50% 29.10% 15.40%
> > > S&P500 -10.10% -13.00% -23.40% 28.69% 10.88% 4.91%
> > > Nasdaq -39.30% -21.10% -31.50% 50.00% 8.60% 1.40%
> > > DJIA -6.20% -7.10% -16.80% 28.28% 5.31% 1.72%
> > >
> > > The results speak that the system works. Hope that someone can
> > > make
> > > the code available, as I dont have any programming skill myself.
> > >
> > > There are WL codes available, we can just translate it to AFL.
> > >
> > > Regards,
> > > Jim
> > >
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Joe Landry" wrote:
> > > >
> > > > Allan
> > > > I had to think back a bit. Well I'm schiz'ed, a
> > > fundamentalist
> > > and a technician. Making money on fundamentals right
> > > now(Validea)
> > > but I know what
> > > > will preserve it is technical analysis.(or risk management?)
> > > >
> > > > What might be an interesting side note, we had Nelson Freeburg
> > > of
> > > Formula Research give a talk to us last Sat. and
> > > > he related as to how his first investment book while he
> was at
> > > Columbia was Martin Pring's early TA book. This led to his
> > > development of a first "system" called Primas (Pring Moving
> > > Average
> > > System). I've got a cam video of his talk on our server, let
> > > me
> > > know if you'd like to down load it.
> > > >
> > > > Best regards
> > > > JOE
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: allansn@
> > > > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > Sent: Thursday, October 19, 2006 7:53 AM
> > > > Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Scan for Bulkowski's chart patterns
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Joe,
> > > > I am shocked...I never would have taken you for a
> > > closet "Edwards and Magee" man :)
> > > >
> > > > Allan
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: Joe Landry
> > > > Date: Thursday, October 19, 2006 8:15 am
> > > > Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Scan for Bulkowski's chart patterns
> > > > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > >
> > > > > I just dusted it off Dimitris' program again and was
> > > stepping
> > > > > through the
> > > > > selections.
> > > > > If you're not familiar with it you might want to check out
> > > > > Anthony
> > > > > Faragasso's charting script
> > > > > as labelled below and in the program library. It's a good
> > > > > companion for this
> > > > > exploration.
> > > > >
> > > > > I tried my hand at on of his most successful patterns
> > > called
> > > > > "pipes" but was
> > > > > not happy with the results.
> > > > >
> > > > > BTW Bulkowski has a newer paperback called Getting Started
> > > in
> > > > > Chart Patterns
> > > > > pub within
> > > > > the last year.
> > > > >
> > > > > As far as Thomas is concerned, I would be a potential
> > > customer
> > > > > for a set of
> > > > > Bulkowski pattern recognition
> > > > > routines if such were to be produced and put up for sale.
> > > > >
> > > > > Best regards
> > > > > JOE
> > > > > SECTION_BEGIN("Pattern Recog. Tony Farragasso");
> > > > >
> > > > > // Name and Purpose ----------------- Faragasso Pattern
> > > > > Recognition -----------------
> > > > >
> > > > > // Date 11/23/03
> > > > >
> > > > > // Source Anthony Faragasso
> > > > >
> > > > > // Type Indicator, Exploration, AB PT
> > > > >
> > > > > // Patterns Wedge, Broad, Upchannel, Bearish.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > From: "brian.z123"
> > > > > To:
> > > > > Sent: Thursday, October 19, 2006 12:50 AM
> > > > > Subject: [amibroker] Re: Scan for Bulkowski's chart patterns
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > Hello Jim,
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Do you mean the chart patterns from Bulkowskis
> > > encyclopedia
> > > > > (over 60
> > > > > > patterns)?
> > > > > >
> > > > > > If you want to code them in AFL some have been done by
> > > Dmitiris
> > > > > > Tsokaki! s (Hello Dimitris, I hope the fish are jumping
> > > into
> > > your
> > > > > > boat)....from the AFL library.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Formula name: Pattern Recognition Exploration
> > > > > > Author/Uploader: Dimitris Tsokakis - tsokakis [at] oneway.gr
> > > > > > Date/Time added: 2001-09-03 14:03:35
> > > > > > Origin:
> > > > > > Keywords:
> > > > > > Level: medium
> > > > > > Flags: exploration
> > > > > >
> > > > > > DISCLAIMER: Most formulas present in AFL on-line
> library are
> > > > > > submitted by the users and are provided here on an "as
> > > is"
> > > and "as
> > > > > > available" basis. AmiBroker.com makes no
> representations or
> > > > > > warranties of any kind to the contents or the operation
> > > of
> > > material
> > > > > > presented here. We do not maintain nor provide technical
> > > > > support for
> > > > > > 3rd party formulas.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Download formula file | Delete formula
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Description:
> > > > > > Paste the code in Automatic Analysis and Explore All
> > > Stocks
> > > > > for the
> > > > > > last date of your data.
> > > > > > In Results click twice a label , for example "a TR" and
> > > you
> > > will
> > > > > > collect all ascending Triangles marked with an "1".
> > > > > > This Exploration recognizes the following patterns:
> > > > > > +Ascending Wedges "aW"
> > > > > > +Descending Wedges "dW"
> > > > > > + ascending Triangles "a TR"
> > > > > > +descending Triangles "d TR"
> > > > > > +ascending channel "a ll"
> > > > > > +descending channel "d ll"
> > > > > > +almost horizontal channel "ll"
> > > > > > +Converging Support and Resistance
> > > > > > +Diverging Support and Resistance
> > > > > > +N/A, ie examples not belonging to any above category.
> > > > > > You may decrease sensitivity, changing
> > > > > > per=3;
> > > > > > with another percentage higher than 3.
> > > > > > For Indicator Builder paste the code in Comments
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > It would be an interesting project to code all of the
> > > major
> > > patterns
> > > > > > (if it hasn'! t been d one already).
> > > > > >
> > > > > > There is also a formula there for identifying candle
> > > patterns
> > > > > by Top
> > > > > > Gun Herman van den Bergen....
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Converting candles to bar chart patterns would be another
> > > > > > interesting project.
> > > > > > I'll do both projects if I run out of things to do.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I haven't tried either of the formulas....I just noticed
> > > them there
> > > > > > the other day so passing it on to you.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > BrianB2.
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "jwmc107" wrote:
> > > > > >>
> > > > > >>
> > > > > >>
> > > > > >> Is there any AFL code to scan for Bulkowski's chart
> > > patterns and
> > > > > > to
> > > > > >> share with?
> > > > > >>
> > > > > >> Thanks,
> > > > > >> Jim
> > > > > >>
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Please note that this group is for discussion between
> > > users
> > > only.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail
> > > directly
> > > to
> > > > > > SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
> > > > > >
> > > > > > For other support material please check also:
> > > > > > http://www.amibroker.com/support.html
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Yahoo! Groups Links
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
>
>
>
>
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