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D,
I do not know what he is, I am just trying to figure out a system that
averages 126% annret for 3 years, with a Mdd of about 40% and is only up
26% this year with 6 mths already gone
So to me he must be up way over the 126% 2002 second half/2003/2005/ since
his system is up only 26% for 2006 first half
I got real lucky with my stocks this first half of the year, and am way up.
But I still consider it luck, since over 300% for 6 months to me is luck.
Also anything back tested is curve fitted, I understand that you said yours
is Real Time what you actually did the last 3 years, but then again you
stated that when you were down 40% you were up at night back testing your
system to make sure it was still viable. If you had RT results over the 3
years why the need to back test if you were concerned? Curve fitting any
system will always give you great results. There is a reason why Fred wrote
his IO program with the walk forward.
Mark I am very glad that you have made 126% annret year after year for the
last 3 years that is great. Just some of the statements you have made ie,
back testing when you are 40% down to validate your system does not make
sense when someone has made 126% annret over that time there is no need to
back test. Now if you re re-optimizing a trade system then that would be
another story.
The more you write the more questions to post to this group
Good luck with your great system and make millions
Mark K
_____
From: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf
Of dingo
Sent: Tuesday, June 20, 2006 4:36 PM
To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: RE: [amibroker] Has anybody made any money???
He's just jealous.. right Mark K.? 8-)
d
_____
From: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf
Of Mark H
Sent: Tuesday, June 20, 2006 4:06 PM
To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Has anybody made any money???
Mm... I sense something in the way you asked questions.
But first of all, your math is not good. To get 126% this year, I only need
another 80%. (1.26 * 1.80 = 2.26).
Secondly I didn't state that I expect 126% this year. I only said I got 126%
average for the last 3 years. In fact, I have no expectation and make no
prediction. I just follow my system. Be it -20% or 250%, as long as it is
consistent with my system, I would accept what the market gives me.
And finally as Ari Kiev pointed out, if you believe it is impossible, of
course, it is impossible to you.
----- Original Message -----
From: MailYahoo <mailto:MailYahoo@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Tuesday, June 20, 2006 2:37 PM
Subject: RE: [amibroker] Has anybody made any money???
Mark,
So you are up so far 26% this year
I take it you expect to be up another 100% or so to make that 126% annret?
Mark
_____
From: <mailto:amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of Mark H
Sent: Tuesday, June 20, 2006 2:23 PM
To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Has anybody made any money???
Yes. It is some trend indicators based on major market indexes. Use Foreign
functions.
26% is based on current equity and start equity of this year. I mentioned
"after DD" since the system is currently experiencing a DD.
There is a trick I can share with you: compare your system equity curve with
the curve of market-based indicators, you may be able to find some
correlation to improve your system by using some market-based rules to stay
out of market or use higher leverage.
----- Original Message -----
From: dingo <mailto:dingo@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Tuesday, June 20, 2006 1:45 PM
Subject: RE: [amibroker] Has anybody made any money???
Thanks. You said your system is mechanical. Was the "out of the market"
decision mechanical? If so, mind telling what method you used? Also, what
do you mean by "Up 26% this year (after DD)"?
d
_____
From: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf
Of Mark H
Sent: Tuesday, June 20, 2006 1:42 PM
To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Has anybody made any money???
Mostly out of the market in the last 30 days due to market conditions.
Current DD 20%, incurred the week before the 10+ days crash (no trades
during the crash). Up 26% this year (after DD).
I found that if I put in more rules to reduce the DD, it would greatly
reduce returns.
----- Original Message -----
From: dingo <mailto:dingo@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Tuesday, June 20, 2006 11:24 AM
Subject: RE: [amibroker] Has anybody made any money???
How have you done in the last 30 days?
d
_____
From: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf
Of Mark H
Sent: Monday, June 19, 2006 10:15 PM
To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Has anybody made any money???
Yuki:
Of course, it is self-evident that nobody can get 100% every year otherwise
he would own the whole world in less than 50 years starting with $100.
That's not the point. The point is when you are small, you should strive for
high returns with reasonable drawdowns. Then when you get to a few millions
or higher, you should diversify your investments/systems and get lower but
steady returns. That's the goal for many individual traders if they don't
want to manage other people's money.
As I read, many top traders were able to get 50-500% for 5-10 years when
they started out. When you are big, it is hard to get high returns since
your moving in/out of the market causes adverse price movements.
Richard Dennis didn't blow his own bankroll. He blew half of the fund he
managed in 1987 because he violated his own principles which he taught to
the turtles. He stopped managing fund for a few years until 1994, when he
started Dennis Trading Group. He was and still is a very wealthy man.
Good trading,
- Mark
----- Original Message -----
From: Yuki Taga <mailto:yukitaga@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: Mark H <mailto:amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Monday, June 19, 2006 9:16 PM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Has anybody made any money???
Hi Mark,
Glad to hear you don't bet the farm. ^_^
I was trading probably before the 'Wizard' writers were out of high
school.
And I believe Richard Dennis, whose successes were kind of the
inspiration for those books, eventually tapped out, as in blew the
whole bankroll. Pardon me if I have that wrong.
Nobody gets those returns consistently, and the basic reason behind
that statement being clearly true should be obvious: The geometrical
growth of the money would soon have such a successful trader with
such a large amount of capital that percentage return gets
progressively more and more difficult to keep in the stratosphere.
Eventually, position sizes become a problem because of market
liquidity. Or did you harken onto the grail? ^_-
Look at Warren Buffet's problem ... too much cash, not enough
qualifying opportunities. And he's not even a trader.
Of course, you could be talking un-compounded. But I still have
serious doubts about sustainability.
I stand by my statement that outsized returns, particularly the
super-jumbo outsized, require outsized risk. I haven't seen any
cases in which that risk didn't ultimately pose a problem. And I
also stand by my opinion that percentage returns in that league are
unsustainable. If they were not, a very few managers would be
managing most of the world's capital. But that is not the case.
Yuki
Tuesday, June 20, 2006, 9:36:27 AM, you wrote:
MH> Yuki:
MH> Thanks for your kind warning. However, you got it wrong. I am trading a
strict mechanical system including position sizing algorithm. So "bet it
all" is not applicable here. There were no big
bets and no big wins either. Just small bets and small wins/losses, and a
lot of them. Since you stated "nobody gets those kind of returns", I would
recommend that you read a few of those
wizards/hitters books to get some inspiration.
MH> Good trading,
MH> - Mark H
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