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[amibroker] Re: System Performances



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Trading Reference Links

If we're talking about ranking systems, here are 2 that I use in my
trading.

My QFit ranking system does a regression fit to a quadratic equation,
then takes the first derivative of the resulting equation (the slope)
which is normalized to price of 100 (more or less).

Here is the top and bottom of a list of about 25 domestic sector ETFs
that I like.  My trading rules are that I hold funds with a rank > 3.0

Ticker	 	QFit	
OIH	     	8.245	Top of list
IGE	    	7.607	
XLE	    	6.306	
XLB	    	3.385	
XLI	    	0.292
..
..
BBH	    	-4.415	
XLU	    	-5.920	
XLV	  	-6.510	
RWR	    	-9.708	Bottom of list

I have another ranking system that ranks stocks on the SMOOTHNESS of
their advance.  Here is a recent run of Shape Filter which selects for
stocks that are under steady accumulation.  It uses curve fitting
technology like QFilt - but different.

Ticker	SFilt
AL	98.30  
EXBD	98.30
WEBM	98.10
AW	98.00
HOC	98.00
CSX	97.70
..
..
  
Reef-Break

I also have a 
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Fred" <ftonetti@xxx> wrote:
>
> Am I missing something ? ... Isn't this standard stuff ? i.e. 
> 
> ... some condition that makes some security eligible to be bought on 
> some bar ...
> 
> ROCx = ROC(C, 10);
> 
> PositionScore = IIf(ROCx > 0, ROCx, 0);
> PositionSize = -100;
> 
> ... followed by some condition that triggers buy / sell
> 
> Buy  = Cross(EMA(C, 13), EMA(C, 21));
> Sell = Cross(EMA(C, 21), EMA(C, 13));
> 
> The above will buy the security with the highet 10 bar ROC on the bar 
> where it meets the EMA X/O criteria and will hold it until the Sell 
> unloads it.  The system will remain flat until the next Buy Signal 
> occurs.  If one wanted to potentially hold more than one position at 
> a time then one would alter PositionSize accordingly.
> 
> Whether the first condition is directly calculatable like an ROC is 
> or is the result of reading something like Zack's list really 
> wouldn't make much difference.
> 
> These are the basic components of PositionScoring and Buy/Sell 
> signals ... aren't they ?
> 
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "dingo" <dingo@> wrote:
> >
> > Ok how about an example of what you were talking about?
> >  
> > d
> > 
> > 
> >   _____  
> > 
> > From: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] 
> On Behalf
> > Of Fred
> > Sent: Tuesday, April 18, 2006 4:52 PM
> > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: [amibroker] Re: System Performances
> > 
> > 
> > Seriously ? ... A rotational system is different in scope then what 
> > I thought was being discussed here which appears to be a rotating 
> > universe of tradables that have some life and get traded intraday 
> > based on them meeting some form of buy & sell rules.
> > 
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "dingo" <dingo@> wrote:
> > >
> > > How about an example of how to do that using a sharpe ratio of 
> > each security
> > > and maybe trade on a rotational basis every month?  
> > >  
> > > Seriously.
> > >  
> > > d
> > > 
> > > 
> > >   _____  
> > > 
> > > From: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
> [mailto:amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] 
> > On Behalf
> > > Of Fred
> > > Sent: Tuesday, April 18, 2006 1:37 PM
> > > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: [amibroker] Re: System Performances
> > > 
> > > 
> > > If the list is a result of some analysis you do then you can 
> > assign 
> > > a PositionScore to each security for each bar.  This would yield 
> a 
> > > constantly changing and potentially prioritized list of available 
> > > securities to be traded.
> > > 
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Ed Hoopes" <reefbreak_sd@> 
> > > wrote:
> > > >
> > > > As I mentioned in the first post - I have been trading this 
> > system 
> > > for
> > > > about 1.5 years.  The first quarter of this year had no severe
> > > > declines in the market, so the Max DD looks better than it 
> > really 
> > > is.
> > > >  Typically the system goes to 100% cash after about a 5% 
> > drawdown. 
> > > > 
> > > > There is another major component in my trading system that I 
> > didn't
> > > > mention - that of market timing.  I use stock index futures 
> (ES, 
> > > YM,
> > > > ER2, NQ) to hedge based on 6 indicators.  This hedging, while 
> not
> > > > perfect, reduces the drawdown considerably so the system plus 
> > > hedging
> > > > results in about 4% drawdowns.
> > > > 
> > > > On the subject of drawdowns, there has not been a >10% market
> > > > correction in over three years.  Since I have only traded this 
> > > system
> > > > for 1.5 years, I don't know what will happen when we eventually 
> > get
> > > > one of these more typical market declines.  
> > > > 
> > > > The main reason for not posting a longer trading history is 
> that 
> > > the
> > > > stock list is updated every couple of weeks, which actually 
> > > improves
> > > > results.  I used the list that was current as of Dec 31, 2005 
> > for 
> > > this
> > > > test.  I don't know how to simulate a constantly changing list 
> of
> > > > stocks in the backtester. 
> > > > 
> > > > Reef-Break 
> > > > 
> > > > 
> > > > 
> > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Phsst" <phsst@> wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > Fred's point is accurate IMO....
> > > > > 
> > > > > If the Trader has spent blood, sweat and tears over a period 
> > of 
> > > years
> > > > > building up a serious trading equity, then a 28% System 
> > Drawdown 
> > > would
> > > > > be demoralizing (only after causing a serious case of "Butt 
> > > Pucker").
> > > > > 
> > > > > A subsequent post from Ed showed a 'Max Sys DD = -3.6%', but 
> > only
> > > > > included 48 trades... which because of the small number of 
> > trades
> > > > > seemed to me to be statistically irrelevant.
> > > > > 
> > > > > 
> > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Fred" <ftonetti@> wrote:
> > > > > >
> > > > > > A Comment and a suggestion ... 
> > > > > > 
> > > > > > - DrawDowns ... I could be wrong but I suspect most people 
> > > can't 
> > > > > > tolerate 28% DD's ... To bring that number down to the 
> point 
> > > where 
> > > > > > at least some people would be comfortable with it using 
> real 
> > > money 
> > > > > > one would I think have to cut it half.  Doing that with an 
> > > existing 
> > > > > > system by restricting how invested one is will result in 
> the 
> > > CAR 
> > > > > > being reduced to the square root of its original number.
> > > > > > 
> > > > > > - Objective Testing ... Take your data, cut in half ... 
> > > Optimize 
> > > > > > your system over half of the data and then test the 
> > parameter 
> > > values 
> > > > > > on the other half.  This rudimentary view of out of sample 
> > > testing 
> > > > > > will give you some idea of what you are likely to 
> experience 
> > > in real 
> > > > > > trading as opposed to totally in sample results.
> > > > > > 
> > > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "intermilan04" 
> > > <intermilan04@> 
> > > > > > wrote:
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Since I have optimized my system between 1996-2006, I 
> > guess 
> > > the 
> > > > > > > answer would be the same time period.
> > > > > > > 
> > > > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Fred" <ftonetti@> 
> wrote:
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > That doesn't answer my question ...
> > > > > > > > 
> > > > > > > > In the development of the system what range of data ( 
> > time 
> > > > > > period ) 
> > > > > > > > did you use ?  The same time period ? An earlier one ?
> > > > > > > > 
> > > > > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "intermilan04" 
> > > <intermilan04@> 
> > > > > > > > wrote:
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > The numbers are the result of backtesting my system 
> > with
> > > > > > > > > NASDAQ and NYSE tickers (around 7000 tickers) between
> > > > > > > > > 1996/1/1~2006/1/1.
> > > > > > > > > 
> > > > > > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Fred" <ftonetti@> 
> > > wrote:
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > Are the numbers you posted in sample or out of 
> > sample ?
> > > > > > > > > > 
> > > > > > > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "intermilan04" 
> > > > > > <intermilan04@> 
> > > > > > > > > > wrote:
> > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > I know it depends on what you want personally for 
> > > > > > risk/reward, 
> > > > > > > > but 
> > > > > > > > > > I'm
> > > > > > > > > > > curious as to what other people's systems 
> > (developed 
> > > in 
> > > > > > > > Amibroker) 
> > > > > > > > > > are
> > > > > > > > > > > performing like. You don't have to share your 
> code 
> > > or the 
> > > > > > idea 
> > > > > > > > behind
> > > > > > > > > > > your system (unless you want to), but I'm curious.
> > > > > > > > > > > 
> > > > > > > > > > > Over the last 10 years, say, what is your annual 
> > > profit %, 
> > > > > > max
> > > > > > > > > > > drawdown, % winning trades, etc.?
> > > > > > > > > > > 
> > > > > > > > > > > I have a long system that has returned around 
> 110% 
> > > since 
> > > > > > > > 1996.  Its
> > > > > > > > > > > winning % is 47%, and the system drawdown is 
> 28%.  
> > > It is a
> > > > > > > > > > > reversal-based, swing-daytrade system.
> > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > 
> > > 
> > > 
> > > 
> > > 
> > > 
> > > Please note that this group is for discussion between users only.
> > > 
> > > To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to 
> > > SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
> > > 
> > > For other support material please check also:
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> > > 
> > > 
> > > 
> > > 
> > > 
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