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Hi intermilan04,
Thursday, December 15, 2005, 2:18:05 PM, you wrote:
i> Hi Yuki,
i> Yeah, good point.
i> I was just curious where your data source for the Japanese market
i> is, because I want to experiment a system created by Masaaki Saito,
i> a system trader with 400% return every year.
I use several data sources, and cross-check them.
I hate to say it, but I kind of doubt that number ... and "every
year"? Since when? You know, we have to respect reality here. ^^_^^
I am a pretty good money manager -- or at least my track record might
suggest that. I take large risks when such is warranted, and I scale
back when there is no reward to match the risk. That said, I'll do
about 45 percent this year. It was a very nice year. (Risk-adjusted,
this year, about 450 percent, and maybe this is the number Saito-san
is using.)
I have no doubt that someone can do 400 percent raw. But I guarantee
they cannot do it every year. No one can. The simple reason for
that is, to do 400 percent even once, you have to take some
*extraordinary* risk -- putting all your eggs in one basket,
whatever. No one can return that amount without taking on large
risk, and certainly not year in and year out. And people who
frequently take extraordinary risk are like shooting stars: Now you
see them; now you don't.
BTW, we just closed here, and the futures, which were holding just
above the lows of the day going into the close, did a death spiral in
the 10 minute after-market (futures are open till 3:10 pm, cash
closes at 3 pm).
So, the Nikkei has dropped 630 points since 10 am (mid morning)
yesterday. Cash closed on the low (Nikkei -- Topix just off the low),
futures at nearly an 85 point discount to cash basis the Nikkei.
More than 120,000 contracts in Osaka ... and no Mizuho Securities
error to blame these two days on, this week. ^_^
I never heard anything so absurd as that pathetic excuse last week.
It had nothing to do with the general market drop a few days ago at
all, of course. The amount of money, while large, was not grotesque,
and even larger errors have happened historically. It threatened the
financial system ... less than zero. I could not believe the media
garbage about it. But all that garbage brought in new longs for a
couple of days. ^^_^^
Me? I think it's just tax selling, and I have been waiting several
weeks for it. It won't run forever, but it might run long enough to
wipe out the longs who only recently took notice of this market.
^_^
Yuki
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