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By my calculations, Japan has officially entered a correction phase
today.
The last time this happened was early October, and it only lasted
about 11 bars. This might be steeper, but might not last any longer.
Cap gains on equities in Japan -- regardless of holding period -- for
those of you that do not know, were slashed a few years ago to a flat
10 percent. This was to try and prop up a market that was threatening
to jump in front of a train. Moreover, there was a period where you
could buy and pay NO capital gains if you held until ... guess when?
.... this year.
>From January, cap gains will double. Needless to say, there are a
tremendous amount of paper profits that would probably like to get
taxed at this year's rate, rather than next year's. And there is no
"wash sale" rule (and even if there was, this is a gain, not a loss),
so they can get right back in very quickly.
So, it might be another 11 bar correction or so. The last trade date
for settlement this year here is December 27, settling on December
30, which will trade only in the AM session, then close until January
4th, which will also trade only an AM session.
This is an FYI only, and I may be totally wrong. But I would not
want to own any substantial amount of this market for the next week,
at least.
As I write this, we are in the PM session on Thursday, and it is
incredibly volatile, and we are currently minus about 0.8 percent
basis both the big indices. All I can tell you is that someone is
selling a huge load of futures. Yesterday, Nikkei 225 futures for
March traded 149,000 contracts in Osaka. I have never seen a larger
number, I believe. Prior to August, 40,000 contracts was a typical
day. That has become 70,000 or 80,000 since then. We will easily
surpass 100,000 futures contracts again today.
Again, just an FYI, and I certainly would not try to short here. But
nothing goes forever without at least a pause or a shakeout, of
course.
Yuki
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