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Terry,
But I am setting position size...See the following in my setup:
SetPositionSize(85,spsPercentOfEquity);
That sets up 85% of equity to be used on any one trade, as I
understand it.
However, I can set it to 100% or 85% or something in-between, and it
varies my net profit, but does not make it dive to near zero.
Both of my statements (below) were true because each referred to a
different condition. One was WITH positionscore (nosediving like a
truck), the other WITHOUT positionscore (Not running out of money),
making a healthy profit.
I must not be understanding something...
1. If I leave out "positionscore", I get a net profit of ~$640K for
the 5 year scan of the watchlist. However, it starts at the beginning
of the list every bar, so shows only a few "B's", some "C's", and very
few letters after that. That is normal behavior. I don't "run out of
money". Fine, can live with it as it is a nice, profitable scan. But
can I make it better by looking at other indicators for scoring?
2. Try "positionscore". Leave all other settings exactly the same.
"Positionscore" does have an effect. It does score the trades, as I
see what appears to be a random list of stocks from the list, but the
"score" causes my net profit to plummet to ~$458.00.
3. I used positionscore = 100+MFI() as an example. When run through
explorer and addcolumn, it correctly "scores" with ranges between 100
and 200. Since it uses an "absolute" value to score, then those
trades with the highest "score" get selected. That is what is
happening, but those trades hurt profitability, not help it. Why?
4. I have tried a very wide variety of other scoring indicators (ADX,
RSI, MS (Worden), BOP (Worden), DMI, MA of those as well as P, V, etc.
None so far have increased the net profit, and most have made it
nosedive where I either exhaust the funds within a year or two, or
wind up with minimal profit.
I don't see any reason why it isn't working technically. I can SEE it
is "working" as it is selecting those with the highest MFI(), or
whatever, but those selections hurt the profitability rather than help
it.
Why would stocks that get selected by the BUY condition and then
"filtered high-to-low" by positionscore, do worse than if
positionscore is not used at all??
I believe (until some can show me where I am wrong) that it is simply
the type of indicator I am using for positionscore. The formula is
pretty tight, i.e. when I graph it, the fast/slow lines do not diverge
much after crossing over.
I am going to test it with other lists, i.e. NASDAQ 100 and see what
happens on a different group of stocks. Can't hurt.
Again, thanks for the tips.
Roy
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Terry" <MagicTH@xxxx> wrote:
>
> I don't see PositionSize being set. If not, then it trades 100% of your
> account on one stock. You did set MaxOpenPositions, but that is not
> enough. Since you have 10 MaxOpenPositions you would need to at least
> set this to -10 (or 1000). Further, I think if you get, for example, 100
> possible trades with 10 open positions, it's always going to trade from
> the top unless you have some priority set via PositionScore. It appears
> you do not.
>
>
>
> Question: How can these two statements both be True?
>
> "The net profit just goes downhill like a truck"
>
> "I am not running out of money, it shows about 600K net profit."
>
>
>
> From HELP on PositionSize and partial on PositionScore. I have
> highlighted a couple of things in red.
>
> SETTING UP POSITION SIZE
>
> IMPORTANT: to enable more than one symbol to be traded you have to add
> PositionSize variable to your formula, so less than 100% of funds are
> invested in single security:
>
> PositionSize = -25; // invest 25% of portfolio equity in single trade
>
> or
>
> PositionSize = 5000; // invest $5000 into single trade
>
> There is a quite common way of setting both position size and maximum
> number of open positions so equity is spread equally among trades:
>
> PosQty = 5; // You can define here how many open positions you want
> SetOption("MaxOpenPositions", PosQty );
> PositionSize = -100/PosQty; // invest 100% of portfolio equity divided
> by max. position count
>
> You can also use more sophisticated position sizing methods. For example
> volatility-based position sizing (Van Tharp-style):
>
> PositionSize = -2 * BuyPrice/(2*ATR(10));
>
> That way you are investing investing 2% of PORTFOLIO equity in the trade
> adjusted by BuyPrice/2*ATR factor.
>
> USING POSITION SCORE
>
> You can use new PositionScore variable to decide which trades should be
> entered if there are more entry signals on different securities than
> maximum allowable number of open positions or available funds. In such
> case AmiBroker will use the absolute value of PositionScore variable to
> decide which trades are preferred. See the code below. It implements
> simple MA crossover system, but with additional flavour of preferring
> entering trades on symbols that have low RSI value. If more buy signals
> occur than available cash/max. positions then the stock with lower RSI
> will be preferred. You can watch selection process if you backtest with
> "Detailed log" report mode turned on.
>
> The code below includes also the example how to find optimum number of
> simultaneously open positions using new Optimization in Porfolio mode.
>
> /*****
> ** REGULAR PORTFOLIO mode
> ** This sample optimization
> ** finds what is optimum number of positions open simultaneously
> **
> ****/
>
> SetOption("InitialEquity", 20000 );
> SetTradeDelays(1,1,1,1);
> RoundLotSize = 1;
>
> posqty = Optimize("PosQty", 4, 1, 20, 1 );
> SetOption("MaxOpenPositions", posqty);
>
> // desired position size is 100% portfolio equity
> // divided by PosQty positions
>
> PositionSize = -100/posqty;
>
> // The system is very simple...
> // MA parameters could be optimized too...
> p1 = 10;
> p2 = 22;
> // simple MA crossover
> Short=Cross( MA(C,p1) , MA(C,p2) );
> Buy=Cross( MA(C,p2) , MA(C,p1) );
> // always in the market
> Sell=Short;
> Cover=Buy;
>
> // now additional score
> // that is used to rank equities
> // when there are more ENTRY signals that available
> // positions/cash
> PositionScore = 100-RSI(); // prefer stocks that have low RSI;
>
>
>
> --
>
> Terry
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On
> Behalf Of Roy Ewing
> Sent: Wednesday, December 07, 2005 18:43
> To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: [amibroker] Re: How to use "positionscore" in this formula??
>
>
>
> Terry,
>
>
>
> Thanks for the tips.
>
>
>
> To clarify, I do get an "occasional" "B", "C", and even a rare "E".
>
> But it is clear when looking at the list that it keeps going back to
>
> the beginning of the list at the "A's".
>
>
>
> When I use POSITIONSCORE, the scoreing is working, ie I see a truly
>
> "mixed" group of stocks. The net profit just goes downhill like a
> truck.
>
>
>
> Here are my settings:
>
>
>
> SetOption("InitialEquity", 10000 );
>
> SetOption("MaxopenPositions", 10);
>
> SetOption("AllowPositionShrinking", True ); //No real impact
>
> SetPositionSize(85,spsPercentOfEquity);
>
> SetTradeDelays(1,1,0,0);//Do not use Short/Cover
>
> ApplyStop(0,1,5,0,False,0);//Stop Loss at 5%
>
> ApplyStop(2,2,3,0,False,0);//Trailing Stop at 3 Points
>
>
>
> In AA I have all STOP SETTINGS DISABLED.
>
>
>
> The effect of POSITIONSCORE on this is still puzzling.
>
> No, I am not running out of money, it shows about 600K net profit
>
> over the 5 years. Throw in positionscore = 100 + mfi() and I get
>
> $458.00 net profit over 5 years. (12/06/2000 - 12/06/2005)
>
>
>
> Does not make sense unless I am simply missing something simple...just
>
> why I asked the group!!
>
>
>
> Thanks for the tips.
>
>
>
> Roy
>
>
>
>
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Terry" <MagicTH@xxxx> wrote:
>
> >
>
> > I haven't followed your question closely so my advice may be off base,
>
> > but it seems PositionSize may be your problem. If there are many
>
> > possible trades the backtester will take the trades until you've spent
>
> > all your money. Sounds like this is happening before you get out of
> the
>
> > A's
>
> >
>
> > Try tightening your PositionScore rules to create less (hopefully
>
> > better) opportunities and set PositionSize to some smaller fixed value
>
> > like 1000 on a 100,000 portfolio (or -1 for 1% of portfolio) or
> similar
>
> > ideas to see if you get trades farther down the alphabet. If you do, I
>
> > was right :-)
>
> >
>
> > If you don't, well I can try harder.
>
> > --
>
> > Terry
>
> > -----Original Message-----
>
> > From: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On
>
> > Behalf Of sebastiandanconia
>
> > Sent: Wednesday, December 07, 2005 11:48
>
> > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
> > Subject: [amibroker] Re: How to use "positionscore" in this formula??
>
> >
>
> > A little more information, please.:) Does the system test all
>
> > the "A"s and then stop right before the "B"s? Or is there a limit to
>
> > the number of "A"s it tests, also? When you use PositionScore, do
>
> > you know that you're getting a full test on all the stocks, or does
>
> > the system still stop testing additional stocks at a certain point,
>
> > just farther into the alphabet?
>
> >
>
> > Not knowing all the details of what you're doing, here's a trouble-
>
> > shooting idea. Have you got a position-limit set in Automatic
>
> > Analysis or in the system code itself? Without PositionScore, there
>
> > would be no ranking of the stocks, they'd simply be bought in
>
> > alphabetical order from your watchlist as the "buy" signals click
>
> > off. If there's a position limit set, the system would just buy
>
> > stocks up to the position limit and stop. After those stocks got
>
> > sold and a new "buy" signal comes up, the system will do the same
>
> > thing over again, starting with the "A"s. If there are enough stocks
>
> > meeting the criteria to fill the portfolio from within the "A"s, your
>
> > system would never get to the "B"s. Anyway, that's just a place to
>
> > start looking.
>
> >
>
> > Also, in my (our) experience, if a free system looks really great
>
> > there's something wrong in the testing process, LOL! In "Backtester
>
> > Settings" under the "Trades" tab, see what the settings are. My
>
> > advice is to set them at "Open" with a 1-day trade delay, otherwise
>
> > your system is taking trades on the day of the signal and not the
>
> > NEXT day when you'd actually make the trade. That will make your
>
> > system returns artificially (and unrealistically) high.
>
> >
>
> > Sorry if I've gone over stuff that you already know. Most of my
>
> > mistakes are simple ones that I just didn't think of.:)
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Luck,
>
> >
>
> > Sebastian
>
> >
>
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Roy Ewing" <slickums76@xxxx> wrote:
>
> > >
>
> > > I found a very good "system" in the AFL Library that produces very
>
> > > good results for what I am trying to backtest. Here it is, stripped
>
> > > to the essentials:
>
> > >
>
> > > ---------------------------------------------------------------
>
> > > // Formula Name: STD_STK Multi
>
> > > // Author/Uploader: Willem Jan
>
> > >
>
> > > STK=Optimize ("StK" , 14, 2, 18, 2);
>
> > > STD=Optimize ("StD" ,16, 2, 18, 2);
>
> > > pds =Optimize("pds", 10,2,18,2);
>
> > >
>
> > > Sell= Cross (EMA (StochD (STD),pds),EMA( StochK (STK),pds));
>
> > > Buy= Cross (EMA(StochK (STK),pds),EMA( StochD (STD),pds));
>
> > >
>
> > > Filter=Buy OR Sell;
>
> > >
>
> > > Buy=ExRem(Buy,Sell);
>
> > > Sell=ExRem(Sell,Buy);
>
> > >
>
> > > /* My Added POSITIONSCORE */
>
> > > PositionScore = 100 + MFI(); //Also many others tried!
>
> > >
>
> > > ----------------------------------------------------------------
>
> > >
>
> > > The problem is that w/o "POSITIONSCORE", I never get out of
>
> > the "A's"
>
> > > during backtesting.
>
> > >
>
> > > I have had good results using "positionscore" with other formulas,
>
> > but
>
> > > I have tried over 30 combinations of different indicators here and
>
> > the
>
> > > results are MUCH WORSE. Not only a little, but a lot worse.
>
> > >
>
> > > I can't believe the formula is so good that nothing will help it,
>
> > and
>
> > > the fact that I can't get out of the "A's" in my watchlist mean
>
> > there
>
> > > should be "better" trades.
>
> > >
>
> > > My watchlist is a list of "Optionable" stocks from TC2005,
>
> > backtesting
>
> > > for 5 years (about 600 stocks).
>
> > >
>
> > > Any ideas?
>
> > >
>
> > > I have emailed the author, but his email bounced.
>
> > >
>
> > > Thanks.
>
> > >
>
> > > Roy
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Please note that this group is for discussion between users only.
>
> >
>
> > To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to
>
> > SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
>
> >
>
> > For other support material please check also:
>
> > http://www.amibroker.com/support.html
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Yahoo! Groups Links
>
> >
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Please note that this group is for discussion between users only.
>
>
>
> To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to
>
> SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
>
>
>
> For other support material please check also:
>
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>
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>
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>
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>
>
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