Hi,
Don't take my posts seriously.Work should be fun else efficiency goes.Posting is work and lot of fun for me.
This ezine came in my mailbox:
Many People Hate To Dwell On Negative Possibilities... One must always be prepared for negative scenarios. Long term secular Bear Markets can last as long as 20+ years, where investors make little or no return on investment. Gold investors are still some 50% below the highs made 25 years ago. US equity investors have had three long periods of time in the last 105 years where the Dow Jones Industrial average made a zero% return!
(1901-1932) , (1929-1954), (1966-1982).
Within these long term secular markets, there can be tremendous market rallies. These can last a year or even longer. In fact in the middle of the great depression, the Dow went from 40 to 200 (a 500% return) in the 5 year period from 1932 to 1937 before retreating again. The ability for mechanical trend following as we practice it here shows it value very well in such long term secular bear markets, which have interim strong bull counter rallies.
The experience of the Japanese stock market illustrates this well. . Between 1990 and 1992, the Nikkei suffered a three-year decline, much like ours did in 2000-2002. Then ...
- Starting in late 1992, it rallied for just over a year, before plunging.
- Between 1995 and 1996, yet another rally, with a gain of some 60%. Then year another bear market.
- A rally lasting over a year, coincided with the blowout stages of our late 1990s Nasdaq Bubble before yet again rolling over.
The bottom finally fell out of the Japanese market as it also did with US stock market beginning in March of 2000. Interestingly enough, at each and every rally peak, the press and financial media in Japan declared "a new bull market," and in each case they embarrassingly wrong! One must learn that he must ignore much of the financial press.
The United States is not Japan for many different reasons, but there are profound lessons to be learned by the above example. Not the least of these is to always submit your market opinion to mathematic intermediate trend following signals without ever second guessing them.
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Agree? Disagree? With the above last para........?
--- N !!
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sloughbridge <sloughbridge@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Natasha !! <dynomitedoll_ddd@xxxx>
wrote:
> Hi,
> ___________________________________________________________
> --- sloughbridge <sloughbridge@xxxx> wrote:
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Michael Robb" <mlrobb@xxxx>
wrote:
> > >
> > > Actually I think there is a lot more to it than that. A brief
> > review
> > of some of the latest Dimitris posts point out just how much more
> > valuable he was than any artificial attempt to reign in the
breadth
> > of
> > his contribution and the subsidiary topical enrichments that are
> > always the specific characteristic of the combination of
contributors
> > involved on a particular matter, or set of questions.
> > >
>
>
> > I was absent at his departure, and wondering what became of him.
Is
> > this saying his leaving had to do with topicality issues?
> _______________________________________________________________
> With reference to the above : NO-one said he left.We are all here
to prosper collectively.Depends on your definition of prosperity of
course.
========
Thanks, but Yuki wrote that there's a reason he's gone. Someone else
referred to his "exile." These certainly imply intention, thus
"departure." I was just trying to find out what the post I replied to
was trying to say. But I've got it now, sadly.
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