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Friday, January 21, 2005, 2:30:03 AM, you wrote:
m> This DJI pattern of candles is worrisome to me. Ron D
Well, it's only 30 stocks, but the pattern is similar for the S&P. I
really don't know what anyone was expecting this year, but if they
were expecting the November-December leg to just continue in
perpetuity, they were dreaming.
Depending on one's entry and holding period . . . naturally . . . I
would not be too worried unless the S&P pivots at around 1160 and
1140 fail. I would not be too surprised at all if 1160 fails, and I
probably *would* be surprised if it wasn't at least tested. Maybe
that test comes before or after a retest of the highs. I don't know,
and neither does anyone else.
On a technical basis, how can *anyone* be surprised here by a
substantial pullback? The S&P tacked on *better than* 15 percent
between August and December, implying a simply unsustainable annual
rate. That's a trajectory that simply *cannot* be maintained. And my
lower pivot of 1140 is only a 50 percent retracement of the fall
move, easily accomplished without even implying an end to trend, and
assuming it took another month to get there, still implying a
delicious annual rate coming off the August lows. The supposed
make-or-break Fib level isn't touched until ~1120.
Worrisome? My goodness. More like expected, to me. The opportunity
to profitably chase unsustainable market movement is a rarity in
life. People enjoyed that rarity in the late 90s and early in 2000.
To expect that climate to resume again so soon would be wishful
thinking, IMHO.
Buyers above 1195 are likely to find a lot of supply between them and
1200 I would think. If that was my opinion, why would I be
interested at 1175 or higher?
Yuki
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