[amibroker] OT: DT, have a look at the weekly

[Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

DT, I know you are thinking lower, and you still could be right.  But
you might be right only for a very short period of time, and then
very wrong.  Have a look at the ^N225 on a weekly basis, via BBands.
It looks like a definite 'pinch' to me.  Often on a severe 'pinch', I
see a false move one way, to the extreme of the bands, which bounces
and is followed rather quickly by a breakout in the other direction.

I notice a number of large-cap, heavily weighted (in the index),
important issues that are showing the same 'pinch' basis the weekly
charts.

This may be the narrowest 'pinch' on the Nikkei itself in the past 5
years on the weekly. The only one that comes close is around Feb -
Mar of 2003, which, just as I mentioned, grazed lower against the
bottom of the bands, only to rebound sharply in late April early May.

This idea potentially plays to fundamental analysis as well.  Most of
the inventory adjustment in semis and electronics has already been
well factored in, and the market here will soon be looking at
potential strength in late 2005, versus the potential weakness in
late 2004 and early 2005 that has dominated price action for the past
six months.

Also, your very own RSIc trendlines show a declining wedge (bullish)
with resistance only at about 11,020 basis the weekly chart.  While
we are mid-range right now on that wedge, it is not hard to imagine a
bounce off the bottom and then a blow through the top.

We could potentially get a very sharp rally fairly early on in 2005.

But first, on Wednesday, we have a Tankan survey that is likely to be
negatively received.  It will likely be the first in at least 8
quarters to show that corporate sentiment is no longer expanding.  So
I, too, am looking lower first.  But I'm looking at an opportunity to
buy, I think.

Yuki

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