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^GDAXI, ^FCHI, ^AEX and ^FTSE open confirm the bearish mood of the
new week.
Dimitris
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS" <TSOKAKIS@xxxx>
wrote:
>
> In a few words, my scenario comes from the
>
> x = Cum(1);
> per = Param("per",2.5,2,20,0.5);// CALIBRATE THE ZIG() SENSITIVITY
> s1=L;s11=H;
> pS = TroughBars( s1, per, 1 ) == 0;
> endt=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pS, x ,1));
> startt=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pS, x ,2));
> dtS =endt-startt;
> endS = SelectedValue((ValueWhen( pS, s1,1) ));
> startS = SelectedValue(( ValueWhen( pS, s1 ,2)));
> aS = (endS-startS)/dtS;bS = endS;
> trendlineS = aS * ( x -endt ) + bS;//SUPPORT LINE
> pR = PeakBars( s11, per, 1 ) == 0;
> endt1= SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 1));
> startt1=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 2 ));
> dtR =endt1-startt1;
> endR = SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pR, s11, 1 ) );
> startR = SelectedValue( ValueWhen( pR, s11, 2 ));
> aR = (endR-startR)/dtR;bR = endR;
> trendlineR = aR * ( x -endt1 ) + bR;//RESISTANCE LINE
> first=Min(startt,startt1);Last=Max(endt,endt1);
> d=10;// INCREASE d TO EXTEND THE LINES
> bullishbreakout=x>endt1 AND Cross(C,trendlineR);
> bearishbreakout=x>endt AND Cross(trendlineS,C);
> Plot(C,"Close",IIf(bullishbreakout,colorBrightGreen,IIf
> (bearishbreakout,colorRed,colorBlack)),64);
> Plot(IIf(x>=first -d ,trendlineS,-
1e10),"Support",colorBrightGreen,1);
> Plot(IIf(x>=first-d ,trendlineR,-1e10),"Resistance",colorRed,1);
>
> for per=6.
> The most recent negative channel is for per=2.5, but it would be
more
> robust if confirmed for per=3.
> Dimitris
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS"
<TSOKAKIS@xxxx>
> wrote:
> >
> > Yuki,
> > From the technical point of view, the Nov16 high [11,268.81] is
not
> > recognized as a Peak [yet]. We were needing a H below 10,930 for
a
> 3%
> > percentage.
> > When this Nov16 will be a Peak, the resistance trendline will be
> > descending. It means any future bullish breakout will occur at
> lower
> > prices [draw manually the trendline linking Oct7-Nov16 highs to
see
> > what I mean...].
> > This fact will define a negative parallel channel for the next 10
> > days or so.
> > Another important issue : The Nov15 gapup is quickly replaced by
a
> > worse Nov22 gapdown. Nobody has any reason to try the 11,000
level
> > now...
> > Dimitris
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx> wrote:
> > > Hi DIMITRIS,
> > >
> > > Saturday, November 20, 2004, 5:36:00 AM, you wrote:
> > >
> > > DT> How about the ^N225 open on Monday ? [technical or non
> technical
> > > DT> opinions will be appreciated...] Dimitris
> > >
> > > Has to be ugly, and I'm quickly losing my enthusiasm for the
long
> > > side of this market. Do you want a number? ^^_^^ Okay. The
225
> > > will open at 10,988.13. It may close there as well. ^_^
> > >
> > > I see the dollar @ 103.1 on this fine Saturday morning in the
Big
> > > Mikan. So, exporters are not going to be too happy about this.
> > >
> > > What has kept the market alive this year (and contributed
greatly
> to
> > > it last year as well) is the so-called "domestic demand" stocks.
> > > These are services (like banks), real estate companies, etc.,
> that
> > do
> > > not (in theory anyway) rely on exchange rates or exports for
their
> > > earnings.
> > >
> > > You can see what has happened, too, as investors have grabbed
this
> > > idea and run with it. Since the low in the spring of '03, major
> > > banks are up several hundred percent (and institutions were
> pouring
> > a
> > > river of money into them yet this week, until Friday, when they
> > > didn't show up). Real estate companies have tripled or
> quadrupled.
> > > Electronics, semiconductors, etc., are lucky if they have
doubled.
> > > Some did double and almost triple on the initial surge last
year,
> > but
> > > they have given a lot back. NEC, for example, ran from 350 to
> 1000,
> > > but is now back below 600 and dead in the water at the moment.
> > >
> > > But the "domestic demand" story only works (IMO) if the export
> > sector
> > > isn't acting as a genuine drag on the economy. It isn't right
> now,
> > > but profits have surely peaked for this cycle, and there are a
> lot
> > of
> > > questions looking forward, as we can see from this morning's
> > business
> > > headlines.
> > >
> > > I expect a lot of choppiness on Monday here, DT. We are at a
> > > dollar/yen level that begs MOF intervention. However, there
may
> not
> > > be much here, as it was last year's interventions that have
placed
> > > such a strain on the Euro, forcing it to be the prime victim of
> > > dollar weakness. Politically, that isn't going to play very
well
> > > this time around. Nonetheless, traders will be on guard for
it,
> and
> > > may not push the downside too hard, just in case.
> > >
> > > There will be those who will try and defend 11,000. Clearly
that
> > > line is meaningless this year, however, it's been crossed more
> times
> > > than a pilgrim visiting Vatican City. ^^_^^ The recent leg is
> not
> > > in trouble technically (again IMO) until we get a close below
> 10,900
> > > (this is near term, however, mid term that level will rise),
just
> as
> > > Friday's train wreck in the US does not change market dynamics
> yet.
> > > It just bled off some hyperventilation, which certainly was in
> order
> > > and needed to be vented.
> > >
> > > I think it's safe to say here, however, that the powerful rally
I
> > was
> > > hoping for is not materializing. Not yet, anyway. Most of the
> time
> > > the smart thing to do is cautiously play at the margins anyway,
> > > awaiting those rare periods when it pays (significantly pays, I
> > might
> > > add) to be rather reckless. I'd hoped we were nearing one of
these
> > > periods, but the signs have weakened considerably. Monday, I
may
> > > take the day off. I can't imagine a scenario on Monday that
would
> > > make me want to take a position either way. The fall colors are
> > > beginning to cascade down the mountainsides all the way to the
sea
> > > now, and the parks in Tokyo are beginning to look like great
> places
> > > to have a lunch date with my friends Mr. Chardonnay, Mr.
Baguette,
> > > and Ms. Frommage. (^_-)
> > >
> > > Best,
> > >
> > > Yuki
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