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Hi DIMITRIS,
Nothing happened today to change the viewpoint I had yesterday. We
tried higher in the AM and failed; we tried lower in the PM and
failed. Futures closed unchanged, ^225 down less than 0.2 percent.
It still looks constructive to me (and I remain holding a modest
amount of longs that are green). A good initial test area is about
10,930 basis the ^225, and we held that without even a touch. At
about 10,865, I'd consider putting on some serious additional
positions and give them 72 hours or about a percent, maybe a percent
and a half. I don't really expect to see that opportunity, but it's
a target and it's certainly a possibility with this low volume this
week. Both lines are rising now, however, so the targets tomorrow
will be easier to hit. As the lower target approaches 10,900, if we
are still hovering here the Osaka gang may decide to hit it and see
what happens psychologically.
On an "eyeball" basis, what I saw today was: No large buyers pushing
higher at all, but numerous large buyers sneaking in from time to
time to pick off large offers once they built up after periodic
weakness followed by little or no bounce. Bids were being hit mostly
by smaller players, it appeared. Shake the tree and see who falls out
-- some people are positioned well and can take a 2 or 3 percent dip,
some can't.
The old adage about never shorting a dull market may be operative
right now.
Best,
Yuki
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