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There's nothing damaging about it ...
Maybe it's just not for you ...
To each his own ...
As I said, backtesters are great for SYSTEM traders and semi-useless
for DISCRETIONARY traders which is what you are describing yourself
as.
There's absolutely nothing wrong with being a discretionary
trader ... I've known some great ones who consistantly make money
with only a couple of basic tools like Andrew's Pitchfork and
possibly something else as a confirmation.
Everyone needs to decide and go with the methodologies that work for
them.
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Brian" <brian@xxxx> wrote:
>
> Point taken, Dingo.
>
> My point was not to discourage, but to let it be known that some
> people don't find certain things useful. The minority speaks,
> although the minority does still exist.
>
> What is potentially damaging is when you can spend countless hours
> using backtesting to improve your trading when all you needed was
to
> rely on some good automated scans and some basic intuition. The
> trader must ultimately determine what works for them -- and not
just
> blindly listen to the majority (which was the mistake I made).
>
> ~B
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "dingo" <dingo@xxxx> wrote:
> > I'm surprised that you would post something like this. No
offense
> intended
> > but I wouldn't discourage anyone from using a tool just because I,
> > personally, had never had success with it or couldn't figure out
> how to use
> > it.
> >
> > I know of a good many successful traders using AB's backtester
with
> > excellent results and they have developed systems in which they
> have enough
> > faith to trade for a living.
> >
> > d
> >
> >
> >
> > _____
> >
> > From: Brian [mailto:brian@x...]
> > Sent: Saturday, November 06, 2004 1:13 PM
> > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: [amibroker] Re: wrong Backtesting results:
> >
> >
> >
> > Hey Kris,
> >
> > I've used a variety of backtesters now and they are essentially
> > worthless to most traders, in my opinion. If you can visually see
> an
> > indicator working well, that it generally indicates a good
> buy/cover
> > or short/sell signal, you'll be okay.
> >
> > It's far more productive to focus your time on creating a variety
> of
> > scans and explorations that run automatically throughout the
> trading
> > day, or at EOD. Look for setups way in advance, and then
patiently
> > wait for a buy or short trigger so you can pounce on them at the
> > perfect moment.
> >
> > What backtesters don't ultimately give you is confidence in
> trading,
> > I find. I've gotten excellent results in backtesting only to find
I
> > did not trust the system and couldn't trade it.
> >
> > Now, if you are setting up an automated logical order system that
> has
> > nothing to do with human emotions, then by all means use
> backtesting
> > to the fullest.
> >
> > If you do test, there's only really a handful of indicators that
> are
> > worth testing anyway, IMO -- try T3, IFT-RSI, Relative Slope
> > Trendlines, and Finite Volume Elements, as your main indicators,
> and
> > you're good to go. MACD and stochastics are good ones, too. Most
> > important, don't forget to use a price trendline indicator to
> verify
> > your signals are happening at the right time.
> >
> > That's my experience, anyway. I feel I wasted a **lot** of
precious
> > time diddling around with backtesters.
> >
> > Best wishes and good luck,
> >
> > ~Bman
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, kris45mar <kris45mar@xxxx>
wrote:
> > >
> > > Hi all:
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > I am trying to get the hang of the Backtester. So far I don't
get
> > it, or it is showing bad results.
> > >
> > >
> > > I run a system and the percent profits and $ profits do not
match
> > the figures in the Report. I include a quick summary of what
> concerns
> > me, then the System tested, then the Settings, then the Report
for
> > anyone who cares to scroll through these and help me out here. I
> > would appreciate any pointers here.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > SUMMARY
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Total Profit = 55.14%
> > >
> > > Total Trades = 11
> > >
> > > winning Trades = 2
> > >
> > > Losing trades = 9
> > >
> > > Total Profit of 932 dollars and Total Loss of 5762.
> > >
> > > This does not make sense to me. How can the total profits be
less
> > than the total loss and yet the system returns 55.14% ???????
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Can I trust these? Is backtester off the mark here?
> > >
> > > Or what am I doing wrong here?
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > full results below:
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > CODE:
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > SetFormulaName("Channel Breakout");// basic setup as per
kaveman
> > Perth
> > >
> > > SetBarsRequired(4000,1);
> > >
> > > SetTradeDelays(1,1,1,1);
> > >
> > > SetOption("initialequity",10000);
> > >
> > > PositionSize=2500;
> > >
> > > SetOption("MaxOpenPositions",5);
> > >
> > > SetOption("PriceBoundChecking",1);
> > >
> > > SetOption("CommissionAmount",19.95);
> > >
> > > PositionScore = 100/C;
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > // Channel Breakout //
> > >
> > > Line = Ref(C,-1) + (1.2 * Ref(ATR(6),-1));
> > >
> > > Buy = Cross(C,Line)
> > >
> > > AND ROC(EMA(C,120)) > 50;
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Sell = 0;
> > >
> > > ApplyStop(2,2, 3 *ATR(15),1);
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > SETTINGS:
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Initial Equity: 10000 Periodicity/Positions: Daily/Long
> > >
> > > Commissions: 19.95 per trade Annual interest rate: 5.00%
> > >
> > > Range: 599 bars Apply to: All symbols
> > >
> > > Margin requirement: 100 Futures mode: No
> > >
> > > Def. round lot size: 1 Def. Tick Size 0
> > >
> > > Drawdowns based on: Close prices
> > >
> > > Long trades
> > >
> > > Buy price: Open Sell price: Open
> > >
> > > Buy delay: 1 Sell delay: 1
> > >
> > > Short trades
> > >
> > > Short price: Open Cover price: Open
> > >
> > > Short delay: 1 Cover delay: 1
> > >
> > > Stops
> > >
> > > Maximum loss: disabled Profit target: disabled
> > >
> > > Value: 0.00 Value: 0.00
> > >
> > > Exit at stop? no Exit at stop? no
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Trailing stop: disabled
> > >
> > > Value: 0.00
> > >
> > > Exit at stop? yes
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > REPORT:
> > >
> > > Statistics | Charts | Trades | Formula | Settings | Symbols
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Statistics
> > >
> > > All trades Long trades Short trades
> > >
> > > Initial capital 10000.00 10000.00 10000.00
> > >
> > > Ending capital 15514.46 15514.46 20990.33
> > >
> > > Net Profit 5514.46 5514.46 10990.33
> > >
> > > Net Profit % 55.14 % 55.14 % 109.90 %
> > >
> > > Exposure % 2.58 % 2.58 % 0.00 %
> > >
> > > Net Risk Adjusted Return % 2137.17 % 2137.17 % N/A
> > >
> > > Annual Return % 2.93 % 2.93 % 5.00 %
> > >
> > > Risk Adjusted Return % 113.63 % 113.63 % N/A
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > ----------------------------------------------------------------
--
> --
> > ------------
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > All trades 11 11 (100.00 %) 0 (0.00 %)
> > >
> > > Avg. Profit/Loss -439.03 -439.03 N/A
> > >
> > > Avg. Profit/Loss % -17.57 % -17.57 % N/A
> > >
> > > Avg. Bars Held 52.27 52.27 N/A
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > ----------------------------------------------------------------
--
> --
> > ------------
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Winners 2 (18.18 %) 2 (18.18 %) 0 (0.00 %)
> > >
> > > Total Profit 932.62 932.62 0.00
> > >
> > > Avg. Profit 466.31 466.31 N/A
> > >
> > > Avg. Profit % 18.65 % 18.65 % N/A
> > >
> > > Avg. Bars Held 67.00 67.00 N/A
> > >
> > > Max. Consecutive 1 1 0
> > >
> > > Largest win 876.37 876.37 0.00
> > >
> > > # bars in largest win 49 49 0
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > ----------------------------------------------------------------
--
> --
> > ------------
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Losers 9 (81.82 %) 9 (81.82 %) 0 (0.00 %)
> > >
> > > Total Loss -5762.00 -5762.00 0.00
> > >
> > > Avg. Loss -640.22 -640.22 N/A
> > >
> > > Avg. Loss % -25.62 % -25.62 % N/A
> > >
> > > Avg. Bars Held 49.00 49.00 N/A
> > >
> > > Max. Consecutive 4 4 0
> > >
> > > Largest loss -1391.10 -1391.10 0.00
> > >
> > > # bars in largest loss 9 9 0
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > ----------------------------------------------------------------
--
> --
> > ------------
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Max. trade drawdown -1219.88 -1219.88 0.00
> > >
> > > Max. trade % drawdown -28.49 % -28.49 % 0.00 %
> > >
> > > Max. system drawdown -6038.39 -6038.39 0.00
> > >
> > > Max. system % drawdown -28.17 % -28.17 % 0.00 %
> > >
> > > Recovery Factor 0.91 0.91 N/A
> > >
> > > CAR/MaxDD 0.10 0.10 N/A
> > >
> > > RAR/MaxDD 4.03 4.03 N/A
> > >
> > > Profit Factor 0.16 0.16 N/A
> > >
> > > Payoff Ratio 0.73 0.73 N/A
> > >
> > > Standard Error 612.13 612.13 296.91
> > >
> > > Risk-Reward Ratio 1.01 1.01 2.42
> > >
> > > Ulcer Index 4.00 4.00 0.00
> > >
> > > Ulcer Performance Index -0.62 -0.62 N/A
> > >
> > > Sharpe Ratio of trades -1.73 -1.73 0.00
> > >
> > > K-Ratio 0.07 0.07 0.17
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Regards
> > >
> > > ChrisB
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > ---------------------------------
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> > > Check out the new Yahoo! Front Page. www.yahoo.com
> > >
> > > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Check AmiBroker web page at:
> > http://www.amibroker.com/
> >
> > Check group FAQ at:
> > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/files/groupfaq.html
> >
> >
> >
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