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>>Sure, there are successful and good short traders. It's just that
the ones I know are always in and out of therapy, and they often have
really annoying nervous ticks, stutters, or other socially
undesirable traits. (^_-) My life is much more relaxed, I think.<<
I hhave found the ssssame ph..ph..phenomenom YYuki....
NNow trading sh..short term 2-5 dddays....
Feeling alot better.
Roflmao! (^_-)
Regards
Jim
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx> wrote:
> Hi Herman,
>
> Friday, September 24, 2004, 7:18:11 PM, you wrote:
>
> HvdB> What do you think about trading shorts in RealTime/Intraday?
>
> Timing is everything. But short timing is more difficult, IMO. As
> long as you define your risk and stick to it though, fine. And as
> long as your potential dwarfs your risk, or your probability is high
> enough to compensate. This dual requirement eliminates a lot of
> trades of course, but that is exactly as it should be.
>
> HvdB> It seems that if we reduce the trade duration to the intraday
> HvdB> level (minutes to hours, no overnite holds) and we are
watching
> HvdB> the trade in real time, that there is little risk in going
> HvdB> short. Also some of the ETFs appear quite safe. Do you also
> HvdB> trade Intraday?
>
> I do a little intraday trading, but almost always I hold a bit
> longer. But I no longer build huge positions and hold them long
> term, like I once did. But very little in and out the same day.
Very
> little. I just don't find risk:reward I'm happy with very often
> intraday. Often, I can find the *monetary* risk:reward, but not the
> *probability*, or vice versa. I don't often find them coexisting
> intraday. Part of that may simply be because we have two very
> *short* intraday periods here: 2 hours before lunch, and 2 1/2 hours
> after a 90 minute break. Sometimes, they are more like two separate
> days than a single day.
>
> HvdB> Theoretically i feel that if my timing is correct I should be
> HvdB> able to reverse each trade,
>
> Well, theoretically . . . ^^_^^ if your timing is right. But
> reversing every trade is a fool's errand, IMHO. We don't sell only
> because we are sure the market is about to turn down. We sell when
> we are reducing risk (partial liquidation to try and ensure break
> even or better on an initial position), and we sell when the
> expectation of further gain comes with a greater risk:reward ratio
> than the original entry, or at least a greater risk:reward ratio
than
> we are willing to now accept. Selling doesn't mean we always
*expect*
> a tradable decline. And even when a tradable decline comes, often
you
> have to be as agile as a cat to get it. Less agility is needed on
> the long side, IMO.
>
> HvdB> however i don't stick to that... i enter on signals but exit
> HvdB> before my exit signal most of the time (never capturing the
> HvdB> entire price move). This for two reasons: 1) I hate losing
even
> HvdB> small profits 2) it gives me more time to
enter/modify/transmit
> HvdB> order lines. btw, i don't trade stocks <$5.
>
> Nobody captures the entire move. Nobody. So don't worry about
that.
> But taking the small profits to avoid the small losses is a
> prescription to mediocrity at best, or ruin at worst. It is how I
> started trading many long years ago, and it simply doesn't work.
> Fortunately I realized and accepted that very quickly, and I changed
> my ways. One of the big changes was learning to actually play
> *through* the initial profit target with a portion of the position.
> It is impossible to hit a home run without doing that, of course.
>
> You must define a risk that you can live with, and then accept that
> risk to its full jeopardy when you enter a trade. An exception here
> or there is okay, of course -- there are always extenuating
> circumstances. But if the exceptions start adding up, you are
either
> making weak entries or are unable to reign in your emotions. Often
> the emotions get in the way when the probabilities and/or rewards
are
> too low. Of course, if the risk is too high, that will have your
> synapses firing like crazy. ^^_^^
>
> You define your risk before entering, and you accept it, fully. If
> you cannot hold to it, you are probably not making entries
consistent
> with successful trading, and you might need to look at that. One
> psychological trick you might try to improve on risk acceptance
> (assuming your entries are indeed okay) is to imagine, before
> entering the trade, that you have lost the entire amount that you
> intend to risk. Really, seriously, try to imagine that it is gone --
> poof -- and that such a result, while not fun, is actually okay. It
> may help you hold, or it may help you set more realistic risk
> parameters.
>
> My guess might be that, in addition to not liking the small losses,
> you may not be taking trades with large enough profit potentials.
> When serious profit potential is not there (serious at least in
> relation to risk, and combined with a high enough probability of
> course), it's easy to get nervous about small losses. Also, if you
> don't play the winners through to your target (assuming gains and
> probabilities make losing okay), you will have great difficulty ever
> taking enough risk to be successful. Instead of accepting a
necessary
> amount of risk, you'll be bailing out early on both sides of your
> entries, and your broker will love you. At the end of every day
> however, you'll need some serious stress antidote.
>
> The key to the game is taking on risk, and living calmly with it.
And
> that means taking just the right amount of risk, understanding that
> it cannot be zero, or too low, nor of course can it be too high. It
> must be, as Goldilocks said, "Just right". That is the key thing I
> would tell anyone attempting to trade any financial market. If you
> cannot accept enough risk, you have to demand *extreme*
> probabilities, and you will either make very few trades in that case
> (fine, too, in that case), or you will spin your wheels endlessly,
or
> churn yourself into oblivion either financially, or psychologically,
> or both.
>
> BTW, when you read my bias against shorting, remember that over
here,
> I have a nice advantage in shorting that US equity traders don't
> have: essentially no uptick rule. (There is one now, introduced a
> couple of years ago, but it only applies to 50 times the round lot
> size or larger, and a lot of stuff here still has a round lot size
of
> 1,000 shares, so I -- or others -- could squeeze off a pretty big
> short on demand in many cases.) But I make more money on the long
> side, even in periods like 6/1/00 through 4/1/03. I would have made
> more money, probably, if I'd gone massively short at the beginning
of
> that period, and covered at the end, but I'm not even close to being
> that smart.
>
> Sure, there are successful and good short traders. It's just that
> the ones I know are always in and out of therapy, and they often
have
> really annoying nervous ticks, stutters, or other socially
> undesirable traits. (^_-) My life is much more relaxed, I think.
>
> Yuki
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