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Dear Friend,
Thanks for sharing your insights and experience about NN.
You wrote:
>"If you also know any NN software "understanding" the directionality
> of the market, please respond."
Ofcourse we can discuss such a question about ANY TA tool endlessly,
but let me quote for you John Murphy(who is wellknown in TA circles)
from the Foreword of Louis B. Mendelsohn's book "Trend Forecasting
with technical analysis".
"Mendelsohn ... shows how a neural network can take any number of
related factors into consideration, analyze them, and draw some
practical conclusions. And, those conclusions lead to the real
benefit - winning market trades."
Ofcourse Mandelson claims close to 80% accuracy for his NN
software "Vanatage Point" of which I do not have any personal
expereince.
My point is that if we can have Gann geomatry and Fibonacci
retracements we can also have NN. Every user will have their own
expereiences and its better for all users to have a chance to test a
thing and then decide if its not useful.
I do understand that other users may not agree with me and thats
fine, we can disagree on the worth of so many things in life. We all
are diffrent, all are unique!
Best regards
Rizwan
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS" <TSOKAKIS@xxxx>
wrote:
> I have tried some [most promissing] NN in the past.
> My test was quite simple : I ran the algorithm for a 1000-bar
famous
> stock and saved the result. Then, 10 min later, I ran the same test
> on the same stock. The new result was quite different ["quite"
means
> a "Sell" instead of "Buy"]. I repeated 2-3 more times the test. I
> also noticed differences in the NN training series. I carefully
> copied my tests and sent them to the NN company with my Best
Regards.
> I still wait for their reply. I am patient enough but, I am afraid
> they will not send any kind of reply. Then I sent a suggestion for
> their own use. Instead of running 100 individual NNs for the 100
N100
> stocks [and enjoying, perhaps, the perfect 50%-50%], it would be
> better to run a composite StochD for the whole N100 market. It was
> the day of a bearish MeanStochD divergence and, my NN-less
prediction
> was the beginning of a [new] downtrend. They didnt make any
comment.
> I suppose they make money selling NNs. I also suppose they trade
the
> MeanStochD divergences. But, I have not received any kind of
> confirmation for these thoughts. The [absolute] silence of these NN
> vendors is, perhaps, the best way to communicate in the 21st
century.
> Dimitris
> PS : If anybody knows an NN which give the same output for 10 tests
> on the same 1000-bar data series, please let me know...
> If you also know any NN software "understanding" the directionality
> of the market, please respond.
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx> wrote:
> > I'm afraid I have to agree about the worthlessness of NN. Here in
> > Japan, with *very* powerful computers, people have attempted to
use
> > NNs to extract money from the stock market. The market has
> extracted
> > money from them instead. Mostly, the effort here has been
abandoned
> > until sometime in the future when there is some kind of
fundamental
> > change in computing power. Other than that, there are the usual
> > collection of hustlers selling black boxes that are just about
> > guaranteed to be next to worthless.
> >
> > The idea that these programs can "learn" in any real sense is
simply
> > not true. Not in any real sense, and not compared to even how
> > chimpanzees learn, let alone human beings. The state of computing
> > does not appear to be anywhere near this realm yet. Maybe in
> another
> > (human) generation or more.
> >
> > Yuki
> >
> > Sunday, September 5, 2004, 10:32:07 AM, you wrote:
> >
> > m> I also vote NO on Neural Networks. The Neural network you were
> > m> born with is thousands of times better than any digital Neural
> > m> network can ever be. We simply fail to use it as well as
> Einstein
> > m> used his. Ron D ----- Original Message ----- From:
> > m> Michael.S.G. To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Sent: Friday,
> > m> September 03, 2004 6:52 PM Subject: RE: [amibroker] Re:
Neural
> > m> Netowrks in AmiBroker
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