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I just changed my Amibroker group membership to receive individual
emails. Should work now. Should be alble to just reply to this
message. If that doesn't work, my direct Yahoo email address is
aequalsz@xxxxxxxxxx
a
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Steve Almond" <steve2@xxxx> wrote:
> Can I send the original chart direct to you? (and if so, how?)
> All should be clear(er) about the method, then.
>
> Steve
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "aequalsz" <aequalsz@xxxx>
> To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, May 19, 2004 8:17 PM
> Subject: [amibroker] Re: Something New?
>
>
> > Sorry, don't know. I couldn't view the attachment and I don't get
> > email from the group so wasn't able to view the original graph showing
> > the method.
> > Reformulated the problem st it did pass through the beginning and end
> > points and found the max "outliers" and passed curves though those
> > also. Problem is, if the CAGR curve always ends at the end point, how
> > do you ever get a buy signal? As you can see I'm quite as mystified
> > as you are. Maybe more.
> >
> > Not sure why the original method didn't pass through the end points.
> > I just backsolved the compound interest formula, ie,
> >
> > (Close_initial)*(1+i)^n = Close_final
> >
> > for the required interest, i using daily data.
> >
> > a
> >
> >
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Steve Almond" <steve2@xxxx> wrote:
> > > It would seem that the CAGR curve should pass through the latest
closing
> > > price. Is the difference due to rounding of the CAGR figure?
> > >
> > > Steve
> > >
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "aequalsz" <aequalsz@xxxx>
> > > To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Wednesday, May 19, 2004 6:55 PM
> > > Subject: [amibroker] Re: Something New?
> > >
> > >
> > > > OK. I went back to the original method. Works a little better.
> > > >
> > > > a
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "aequalsz" <aequalsz@xxxx>
wrote:
> > > > > It looks like some of the tech stocks will have to go into
negative
> > > > > numbers to be buy candidates. Do you use extreme high and low
> > points
> > > > > relative to the CAGR curve for the series of curves or other
more
> > > > > intermediate points?
> > > > >
> > > > > a
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Steve Almond" <steve2@xxxx>
> > wrote:
> > > > > > I came across a 'new' method of investing whilst perusing the
> > Motley
> > > > > Fool boards (I think a subscription is required - sorry). It's
> > called
> > > > > the BMW system after the inventor's name BuildMWell.
> > > > > > http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=20414790
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Basically, he takes a long price history (typically 30
years of
> > > > > monthly data) and constructs a series of % CAGR (compound annual
> > > > > growth rate) curves which encompass the data.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Here is an example (PEP) from, I believe, Excel:
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > The first curve uses today's price and the price 30 years
ago to
> > > > > calculate the current CAGR (say 11.3%) which he then draws
> > (manually)
> > > > > on a chart printout.
> > > > > > He simply calculates the price every 5 years assuming an
annual
> > > > > 11.3% increase and connects the dots with a French curve!
> > > > > > Similar curves are then drawn to hit the obvious high and low
> > points.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > In this way he invests when the stock is historically
'low'. For
> > > > > example see the above chart about mid 2002.
> > > > > > As you will appreciate, this is not a short term system,
but BMW
> > > > > claims not to have had ANY losers since starting in 1999!
> > > > > > The question, of course, is can we draw these curves in AB?
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Thanks,
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Steve
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Send BUG REPORTS to bugs@xxxx
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> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> >
> >
> >
> > Send BUG REPORTS to bugs@xxxx
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> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
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