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Hello,
I just wanted to share a simple filter I use to address a "good" time
to purchase mutual funds... I call it my "Risk ratio". Basically,
when the Risk ratio is above 2 and rising, it's a signal for me to
consider buying the mutual fund. The strongest signal is when both
the long-term and short-term Risk ratios are above 2 and rising. I
use this as a filter for weekly data. It's a simple ratio, but has
worked very well for me, especially in combination with my Trend
Index.
//Risk ratio//
ROR=ROC(Close,1);
period1= Param("long-term",30,30,100,5);
y1 = IIf(ROR>0,ROR,0);
y2 = IIf(ROR<0,ROR,0);
y3 = Sum(y1,period1);
y4 = Sum(y2,period1);
y5 = Sum(y1,13);
y6 = Sum(y2,13);
ratio1 = abs(y3/y4); //long-term Risk ratio//
ratio2 = abs(y5/y6); //short-term Risk ratio//
Plot(ratio1,"long-term",colorBlue);
Plot(ratio2,"short-term",colorRed);
Title = "Risk Ratio"
+" "
+EncodeColor(colorBlue)+"long-term {"+WriteVal(period1,1.0)+" bars}
= " +WriteVal(ratio1,1.1)
+" "
+EncodeColor(colorRed)+"short-term {13 bars} = "+WriteVal(ratio2,1.1);
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