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More than half of it is. Herman, please take some advice. Don't try
to authoritatively debunk valid principles that you don't understand.
And try to open your mind. Because you have no idea how much you
don't know. Seriously :-)
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Herman van den Bergen"
<psytek@xxxx> wrote:
> Just can't resist one more question :-)
>
> qt, is that 25 years of mechanical trading? Anything else is
statistically
> and/or mathematically irrelevant to the issues discussed ;-)
>
> Take care qt, I enjoyed the exchange.
>
> herman
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: quanttrader714 [mailto:quanttrader714@x...]
> Sent: Wednesday, March 10, 2004 12:44 PM
> To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: [amibroker] Re: Comments on Van Tharp courses please
>
>
> Thanks for the advice, LOL, but I've been trading for over 25 years.
> Your posts clearly show that you don't have even the most basic grasp
> of probability and statistics. Maybe when you open your mind a little
> you'll be profitable too.
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Herman van den Bergen"
> <psytek@xxxx> wrote:
> > InLine...
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: quanttrader714 [mailto:quanttrader714@x...]
> > Sent: Wednesday, March 10, 2004 9:17 AM
> > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: [amibroker] Re: Comments on Van Tharp courses please
> >
> >
> > Generalized and popularized opinions, LOL? This is not a
touchy feely
> > discussion about social issues, this stuff is pretty cut and
dried.
> >
> > You said it: "dried" ;-)
> >
> > The only thing your post and example goes to show is that you
don't
> > understand what he wrote. You're misleading new traders on
this big
> > time.
> >
> > What was your methodology? You say you traded the system on 100
> > stocks, had about 50% winning trades and 8000 total trades.
What do
> > you mean when you say you had no more than 6 losers in a row?
No more
> > than 6 in a row on any single stock? Or did you line up all 8000
> > trades by date? And if so, did you count *simultaneous losing
trades*
> > as being in a row? And what about sequential groups of
simultaneous
> > losing trades? If not, why not?
> >
> > I explained that this system was designed for a handfull of single
> stocks
> > therefore i only considered losing streaks for individual stocks, it
> > wouldn't make sense to group together unrelated stocks that
would not be
> > traded simultaneously anyway. I ran it on the N100 just to
illustrate a
> > point. Our discussion did not address the issue of portfolio
trading.
> >
> > Simultaneous losing trades would
> > have a more devastating effect on your account than sequential
losing
> > trades unless you're increasing your trade size as your
account goes
> > down. Trading the ND100 stocks over the same period is like
trading a
> > flock of birds where the majority are moving in roughly the same
> > direction at any given time. Finally, just because you "could
easily
> > have 10 losses in a row" (p. 138) doesn't mean you *always*
will, LOL.
> >
> > But in ten times the amount of trades you would at least
expect ONE of
> > them, but I didn't even get more than 6 sequential losing trades,
> let alone
> > one of ten. I think the only way to convince you qt, is for you to
> analyze
> > some of your own trading systems, have you done so? If you did,
> perhaps you
> > can show us a chart. Or are you just taking published material as
> gospel? I
> > wonder how many on this list have actually thoroughly analyzed their
> > systems? AmiBroker is a wonderful but under-utilized research
tool; it
> > should be be used in universities to make economic classes more
> interesting.
> >
> > One *valid* counterexample (not sure yours is) or even many shows
> > nothing. On the contrary, they're to be expected.
> >
> > We have our own ways and everybody should trade in whatever way
> he/she is
> > comfortable with. I have been disillusioned (and lost money)
because I
> > believed and followed traditional trading methods. Things have gone
> better
> > since i went my own way a few years ago. Again, whatever
literature you
> > read, I encourage people to analyze, verify and research their own
> systems.
> > That is the only point i was trying to make.
> >
> > imho, if you want to make money trading you have to think
"outside the
> > box", I equate "cut and dried" stuff with obsolete stuff. The
> bookstores are
> > full of it. Cut and dried stuff is nice to teach you the concepts
> but not to
> > help you design a trading system. I never got a single trading
> system from a
> > book to work satisfactory, ... I tried hundreds. Show me one single
> system
> > that works well today from The Encyclopedia of technical indicators
> (Colby).
> >
> > Thanks qt, I value and respect your opinion but enough on VT, I
> want to
> > get back to other stuff.
> >
> > best regards,
> > Herman.
> >
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Herman van den Bergen"
> > <psytek@xxxx> wrote:
> > > Hello qt,
> > >
> > > On page 138 VT writes: "... In fact, over 1000 trials you could
> > easily have
> > > 10 losers in a row...."
> > >
> > > Here is an old test result of a mediocre trading system that was
> > designed
> > > for a handful of stocks, in order to get sufficient trials I
ran the
> > system
> > > on all stocks of the N100: a bad combination that gave only
about
> > 50%
> > > winning trades. Even so, in the 8000 trades thus simulated
there was
> > not one
> > > losing streak with more then 6 losers in a row. This goes to
show
> > that
> > > generalized and popularized opinions may not apply to your
system
> > and for
> > > this reason I encourage people to do their own homework.
> > >
> > > best regards,
> > > herman
> > >
> > >
> > > Losing Streak 6 5 4 3 2 1
> > > Probability of occurrence 0.10% 0.31% 0.78% 2.49%
8.49% 37.18%
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: quanttrader714 [mailto:quanttrader714@x...]
> > > Sent: Tuesday, March 09, 2004 5:47 PM
> > > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: [amibroker] Re: Comments on Van Tharp courses please
> > >
> > >
> > > Whoa!!! I feel an obligation to correct the record because you
> > and Pal
> > > keep going on and on and clearly neither of you
understands this
> > > stuff. More comments below.
> > >
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Herman van den Bergen"
> > > <psytek@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > Some time ago we had lengthy discussions on Von Tharp's
> > theories.
> > > If i
> > > > recall correctly he treats the market like a Random
phenomena
> > >
> > > You recall incorrectly. On page 42 he specifically states "the
> > markets
> > > are not random."
> > >
> > > > and bases all
> > > > his statistical analysis on that. This is completely
> > contradictory
> > > to those
> > > > of us who design mechanical trading systems that give 60-75%
> > winning
> > > trades,
> > >
> > > There is *absolutely nothing at all* contradictory with "Von
> > Tharp's
> > > theories" <sic> and "mechanical trading systems that give
60-75%
> > > winning trades."
> > >
> > > > have well distributed and defined losing and winning
streaks,
> > and
> > > have
> > > > profit as well as stop control measures in place.
> > > >
> > > > At the time of the thread i bought and read his book
"Trade your
> > > way to
> > > > finacial freedom". It was fun reading however I proved a
number
> > of
> > > his
> > > > assumptions wrong 'for my trading systems'; my systems are
> > > definitely not
> > > > random.
> > >
> > > Where are you getting random systems from? Van Tharp
specifically
> > > says that a system must have a positive expectancy to make
money.
> > In
> > > other words, an edge. Nothing random about that. Does
this mean
> > the
> > > concept of randomness has no valid role to play?
Absolutely not.
> > >
> > >
> > > >Testing several systems over 280,000 bars, with average trade
> > > > durations from 2-10 bars his predictions for winning and
losing
> > > streaks for
> > > > example was way off.
> > >
> > > Huh?
> > >
> > > >If you are interested you may search the archives, i
> > > > posted some of my code used to analyze systems, as well as
> > results
> > > complete
> > > > with charts on this list.
> > > >
> > > > Far too little time is spend on system analysis, way too
much
> > time
> > > goes into
> > > > driving profits up by optimization. All systems are
different;
> > > analyze your
> > > > own systems, do not believe that anybody else can tell
you have
> > they
> > > behave
> > > > under various market conditions.
> > >
> > > Again, you've totally missed the point. I urge any new
traders
> > > reading this thread to read Van Tharp's book because the
concepts
> > > absolutely work if understood and applied properly.
> > >
> > > >
> > > > bets regards,
> > > > herman.
> > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > From: Pal Anand [mailto:palsanand@x...]
> > > > Sent: Sunday, March 07, 2004 4:34 PM
> > > > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > Subject: [amibroker] Re: Comments on Van Tharp courses
please
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > I downloaded the free "Secrets of the Masters Game"
and played
> > > with
> > > > it. The first 2 levels are a piece of cake. The 3rd
level is
> > > > difficult, but in only 3 trials out of 75 I finished
it. I
> > think
> > > I
> > > > have unlocked the secret code for the right
combination of the
> > > Risk
> > > > ($ per Share) and Investment level (# Shares to buy.)
This
> > is no
> > > > mean feat. There is only one combination which is
optimum.
> > Find
> > > > this combination and I would acknowledge that you are a
> > Master and
> > > > you dont need to spend on anything else. Here are the
> > > instructions
> > > > to download and for the game:
> > > >
> > > > http://www.iitm.com./_vti_bin/shtml.dll/regform.htm
> > > >
> > > > Position Sizing™: The Secrets
> > > > of the Masters Trading Game
> > > > Instructions for Level Three
> > > >
> > > > This level is similar to level one. You are given a
trading
> > > system
> > > > that goes long in the market. Your only choice is to
decide
> > how
> > > > much to risk for each trade. That's it! You simply
decide
> > how
> > > much
> > > > to risk. Overall, level two is an even better system than
> > level
> > > one
> > > > gave you. Over many trials, your expectancy will be
0.91 as
> > > > compared with 0.45 for the first level.
> > > >
> > > > Now that you've reached this level, we recommend that you
> > begin by
> > > > saving the game. If you should go bankrupt, you will
have to
> > > start
> > > > again at the beginning of the game if you don't have a
saved
> > game
> > > at
> > > > this level. However, we hope you can get through the game
> > without
> > > > going bankrupt.
> > > >
> > > > Once again, you will have the opportunity to make 75
trades.
> > Your
> > > > minimum goal is to make a profit of 50% by the end of
the 75
> > > trades
> > > > so that you can advance to level four. However, you will
> > > > automatically advance to level three should you
increase your
> > > equity
> > > > by 500% from the starting value.
> > > >
> > > > If you have not made a profit at the end of 75 trades, you
> > will
> > > need
> > > > to start this level over again. However, if you have
made a
> > > profit
> > > > that's less than 50%, you will then have another 25
trades to
> > > reach
> > > > your goal of 50% to advance to the next level.
> > > >
> > > > If you have a loss at the end of 75 trades, you will
have to
> > start
> > > > the level over again with a 10% penalty (subtracted
from your
> > > prior
> > > > starting equity).
> > > >
> > > > The probabilities and payoffs for this level are given
in the
> > > > statistics section of the game (in the View menu.) We'd
> > suggest
> > > > that you study them carefully and develop a strategy
before
> > you
> > > > begin the game.
> > > >
> > > > Level Three
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Questions & Answers
> > > >
> > > > Question:
> > > > Why am I not allowed to go short? I would be right
70% of the
> > > > time. Isn't that what it's all about?
> > > >
> > > > Response:
> > > > Hopefully you'll step out of the box of needing to be
right by
> > > > playing this game. You should be learning the
importance of
> > > large R-
> > > > multiples over being right. Wait until you get a 30R
or 20R
> > trade
> > > > in your favor and see what that does for your account. Or
> > would
> > > you
> > > > rather have that against you? If being right is that
> > important to
> > > > you, you'll have your chance to go against the
expectancy in
> > level
> > > > five.
> > > >
> > > > Question:
> > > > What's a good strategy to play this game?
> > > >
> > > > Response:
> > > > Figuring out a good strategy and learning from your
mistakes
> > is
> > > one
> > > > of the skill requirements of this game. What is your
> > worst-case
> > > > loss? It's four percent, so you'll risk bankruptcy by
risking
> > > over
> > > > 25% on any trade. Also think about how many losses
you could
> > have
> > > > in a row. You're only right 30% of the time. It's very
> > likely
> > > that
> > > > you might have 9 losses in a row in your 75 trades.
You might
> > > even
> > > > have a streak of losses as big as 20 or more. You need to
> > play to
> > > > survive that you that you can make money on the 30R trades
> > that
> > > > might come up. With those two guidelines, design your own
> > > strategy.
> > > >
> > > > IITM also sells products designed to help you with
strategy
> > > > development. These include 1) the money management
report;
> > 2) a
> > > > newsletter issue devoted to optimal bet size; and 3)
optimal
> > bet
> > > > size software that will be available for purchase in
mid-2002.
> > > >
> > > > Question:
> > > > Once again, I don't have much information on any of these
> > > > investments or trades. How am I to know which one's
will go
> > up?
> > > >
> > > > Response:
> > > > You don't know what will go up, that's true. But you
do know
> > the
> > > > payoffs and probabilities of the system you will be
trading.
> > > That's
> > > > all you need to know to figure out to work out bet sizing
> > > > strategies. Those strategies are the key to success
and this
> > game
> > > > is designed to get you away from predicting the market and
> > into
> > > > thinking about those strategies.
> > > >
> > > > rgds, Pal
> > > >
> > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "relentless1000"
<cgmv@xxxx>
> > > wrote:
> > > > > I purchased the "Developing a winning trading system
that
> > fits
> > > > you"
> > > > > audio tape course back in December 03 (got it on
sale for
> > $699).
> > > > > Just as I've found with other books and courses its
not a
> > > > blueprint
> > > > > for making a fortune, but I did come away learning a
> > handful of
> > > > > helpful things.
> > > > >
> > > > > I found it a little pricey since it is an audio taped
> > seminar.
> > > > The
> > > > > advertising for it says it's profesionally edited.
I found
> > the
> > > > > recording to be of less quality than I expected.
Several
> > times
> > > > > through the 12 tapes people in the seminar ask
questions or
> > make
> > > > > comments that you cannot hear well, sometimes even the
> > > instructors
> > > > > cannot be heard for short periods until the
microphone picks
> > > them
> > > > > up. Not a major problem but for ~ $ 700+, I expect
a little
> > > > better
> > > > > job than this.
> > > > >
> > > > > The content is organized well and pretty informative,
> > altough I
> > > > think
> > > > > for much less money you could buy some books and get
pretty
> > much
> > > > the
> > > > > same info. I think if you studied Van's book "Trade
your
> > way to
> > > > > Financial Freedom" and Charles LeBeau's book "Computer
> > Analysis
> > > of
> > > > > the Futures Market" (Charles was a major part of the
audio
> > taped
> > > > > course, I found his input very helpful) you'd get a
> > majority of
> > > > the
> > > > > technical content.
> > > > >
> > > > > Good Luck
> > > > >
> > > > > GV
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Al Venosa"
> > <advenosa@xxxx>
> > > > wrote:
> > > > > > All of his stuff is pricey. I never took his peak
> > performance
> > > > > course, but I know someone who did. He learned a lot
about
> > > himself
> > > > > when he went through it, but I don't think he is
using much
> > of
> > > it
> > > > > today. Just like anything else. I don't think you
are using
> > much
> > > > of
> > > > > the stuff you learned in college today, either, but
it was
> > good
> > > > > training. You pays your money and you takes your
chances, so
> > > goes
> > > > the
> > > > > cliche. Why don't you call Van and ask him about his
course
> > > > > offerings?
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Al V.
> > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > From: Greg
> > > > > > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > > > Sent: Saturday, March 06, 2004 10:56 AM
> > > > > > Subject: Re: [amibroker] Comments on Van Tharp
courses
> > > please
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Al and Phil,
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Thanks for your comments on Van Tharps' courses.
I was
> > > > wondering
> > > > > if you know anything about his Peak Performance
Course for
> > > > Investors
> > > > > and Traders. It looks interesting, although a little
> > pricey. I
> > > > know
> > > > > of people paying much more for a personal adviser
that works
> > > with
> > > > > them on some of the areas that Tharp deals with, such as
> > making
> > > a
> > > > > business plan. Seems like Tharp goes into areas that
will
> > > > > psychologically prepare you for trading. I guess
I'll have
> > to
> > > read
> > > > > through the description of the course more
thoroughly and
> > then
> > > > decide
> > > > > if I it would be worthwhile for me.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Thanks again for your comments,
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Greg
> > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > From: Al Venosa
> > > > > > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > > > Sent: Saturday, March 06, 2004 11:41 AM
> > > > > > Subject: Re: [amibroker] Comments on Van Tharp
courses
> > > please
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Hi, Greg:
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I took Van's Advanced Stock Market course
about 2.5
> > years
> > > > ago.
> > > > > Don't even know if he still offers it. Although I
enjoyed it
> > > > > immensely, especially all the money management
material, the
> > > main
> > > > > lecturer, Dennis Ullom, was a CANSLIM trader of sorts.
> > Since I'm
> > > > more
> > > > > of a mechanical trading system type of person, I
didn't get
> > that
> > > > much
> > > > > out of his presentations because a lot of that sort of
> > trading
> > > > > philosophy is discretionary, or at least subjective
> > judgment. If
> > > > > that's your thing, then you will likely get a lot
more out
> > of it
> > > > than
> > > > > I did. But I thought the money management stuff was very
> > > > worthwhile.
> > > > > For about $80, you could buy Van's Report on Money
> > Management
> > > plus
> > > > > his book "Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom" and learn
> > all you
> > > > need
> > > > > about money management for a fraction of the price
of his
> > > course,
> > > > > IMO.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Regards,
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Al Venosa
> > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > From: Greg
> > > > > > To: AmiBroker@xxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > > > Sent: Saturday, March 06, 2004 10:18 AM
> > > > > > Subject: [amibroker] Comments on Van Tharp
courses
> > > please
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Hi,
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I was wondering if anyone here has taken any
of the
> > > > courses
> > > > > offered by Van Tharp. If so could you please comment on
> > there
> > > > > helpfulness.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Thanks,
> > > > > > Greg
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
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