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<SPAN
class=000120015-10032004>InLine...
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: quanttrader714
[mailto:quanttrader714@xxxxxxxxx]Sent: Wednesday, March 10, 2004
9:17 AMTo: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: [amibroker]
Re: Comments on Van Tharp courses please
Generalized and popularized opinions, LOL? This is not a touchy
feelydiscussion about social issues, this stuff is pretty cut and
dried. <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>You said it: "dried" ;-) <SPAN
class=000120015-10032004><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
The only thing your post
and example goes to show is that you don'tunderstand what he wrote.
You're misleading new traders on this bigtime.What was your
methodology? You say you traded the system on 100stocks, had about
50% winning trades and 8000 total trades. What doyou mean when you
say you had no more than 6 losers in a row? No morethan 6 in a row
on any single stock? Or did you line up all 8000trades by date? And
if so, did you count *simultaneous losing trades*as being in a row?
And what about sequential groups of simultaneouslosing trades? If
not, why not? <FONT face=Arial
color=#0000ff size=2>
<FONT
color=#0000ff>I explained that this system was designed for a
handfull of single stocks therefore i only considered losing streaks for
individual stocks, it wouldn't make sense to group together unrelated stocks
that would not be traded simultaneously anyway. I ran it on the N100 just to
illustrate a point. Our discussion did not address the issue of portfolio
trading.
Simultaneous losing trades wouldhave a more devastating effect on
your account than sequential losingtrades unless you're increasing your
trade size as your account goesdown. Trading the ND100 stocks over
the same period is like trading aflock of birds<SPAN
class=000120015-10032004><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2> where the majority are moving in roughly the
samedirection at any given time. Finally, just because you "could
easilyhave 10 losses in a row" (p. 138) doesn't mean you *always* will,
LOL.<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>But in ten times the amount of trades you would at least
expect ONE of them, but I didn't even get more
than 6 sequential losing trades, let alone one of ten.
I think the only way to convince you qt, is for you to analyze
some of your own trading systems, have you done so? If you did, perhaps you
can show us a chart. Or are you just taking published
material as gospel? I wonder how many on this list have actually
thoroughly analyzed their systems? AmiBroker is a wonderful but under-utilized
research tool; it should be be used in universities to make economic classes
more interesting.
<SPAN
class=000120015-10032004><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
One *valid*
counterexample (not sure yours is) or even many showsnothing. On the
contrary, they're to be expected. <SPAN
class=000120015-10032004><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>We have our own ways and everybody should trade in
whatever way he/she is comfortable with. I have been disillusioned (and lost
money) because I believed and followed traditional trading methods. Things
have gone better since i went my own way a few years ago. Again,
whatever literature you read, I encourage people to analyze, verify and
research their own systems. That is the only point i was trying to
make.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>imho, if you want to make money trading you have to think "outside the
box", I equate "cut and dried" stuff with obsolete stuff. The
bookstores are full of it. Cut and dried stuff is nice to teach you the
concepts but not to help you design a trading system. I never got a single
trading system from a book to work satisfactory, ... I tried hundreds. Show me
one single system that works well today from The Encyclopedia of technical
indicators (Colby).<FONT
face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>
<FONT
face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT
face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><FONT
face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>Thanks qt, I value and respect your
opinion but enough on VT, I want to get back to other
stuff.
<FONT
face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN
class=000120015-10032004><SPAN
class=000120015-10032004><FONT face=Arial
color=#0000ff size=2><FONT face=Arial
color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT
face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>best
regards,
<FONT
face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Herman.
<FONT
face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>--- In
amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Herman van den Bergen"<psytek@xxxx>
wrote:> Hello qt,> > On page 138 VT writes: "... In fact,
over 1000 trials you couldeasily have> 10 losers in a
row...."> > Here is an old test result of a mediocre trading
system that wasdesigned> for a handful of stocks, in order to get
sufficient trials I ran thesystem> on all stocks of the N100: a bad
combination that gave only about50%> winning trades. Even so, in
the 8000 trades thus simulated there wasnot one> losing streak with
more then 6 losers in a row. This goes to showthat> generalized and
popularized opinions may not apply to your systemand for> this
reason I encourage people to do their own homework.> > best
regards,> herman> >
> Losing Streak 6 5 4 3 2
1> Probability of occurrence 0.10%
0.31% 0.78% 2.49% 8.49% 37.18%> > > > >
> > > > > -----Original
Message-----> From: quanttrader714
[mailto:quanttrader714@xxxx]> Sent: Tuesday, March 09, 2004
5:47 PM> To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [amibroker] Re: Comments on Van Tharp courses please> >
> Whoa!!! I feel an obligation to correct the record
because youand Pal> keep going on and on and clearly
neither of you understands this> stuff. More comments
below.> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Herman
van den Bergen"> <psytek@xxxx>
wrote:> > Some time ago we had lengthy discussions on
Von Tharp'stheories.> If i> >
recall correctly he treats the market like a Random phenomena>
> You recall incorrectly. On page 42 he specifically states
"themarkets> are not random.">
> > and bases all> > his
statistical analysis on that. This is
completelycontradictory> to those>
> of us who design mechanical trading systems that give
60-75%winning> trades,> >
There is *absolutely nothing at all* contradictory with
"VonTharp's> theories" <sic> and "mechanical
trading systems that give 60-75%> winning trades.">
> > have well distributed and defined losing and winning
streaks,and> have> > profit as
well as stop control measures in place.>
>> > At the time of the thread i bought and read his
book "Trade your> way to> > finacial
freedom". It was fun reading however I proved a
numberof> his> > assumptions
wrong 'for my trading systems'; my systems are> definitely
not> > random.> > Where are
you getting random systems from? Van Tharp
specifically> says that a system must have a positive
expectancy to make money.In> other words, an
edge. Nothing random about that. Does this
meanthe> concept of randomness has no valid role to
play? Absolutely not.> > > >Testing
several systems over 280,000 bars, with average trade> >
durations from 2-10 bars his predictions for winning and
losing> streaks for> > example was
way off.> > Huh?> > >If
you are interested you may search the archives, i> >
posted some of my code used to analyze systems, as well
asresults> complete> > with
charts on this list.> >> > Far too
little time is spend on system analysis, way too
muchtime> goes into> > driving
profits up by optimization. All systems are different;>
analyze your> > own systems, do not believe that anybody
else can tell you havethey> behave>
> under various market conditions.> > Again,
you've totally missed the point. I urge any new
traders> reading this thread to read Van Tharp's book
because the concepts> absolutely work if understood and
applied properly.> > >> >
bets regards,> > herman.>
> -----Original Message----->
> From: Pal Anand [mailto:palsanand@xxxx]>
> Sent: Sunday, March 07, 2004 4:34 PM>
> To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: [amibroker] Re: Comments on Van Tharp courses
please> >> >>
> I downloaded the free "Secrets of the Masters Game" and
played> with> > it.
The first 2 levels are a piece of cake. The 3rd level
is> > difficult, but in only 3 trials out of
75 I finished it. Ithink> I>
> have unlocked the secret code for the right combination of
the> Risk> > ($ per
Share) and Investment level (# Shares to buy.) Thisis
no> > mean feat. There is only one
combination which is optimum. Find> >
this combination and I would acknowledge that you are aMaster
and> > you dont need to spend on anything
else. Here are the> instructions>
> to download and for the game:>
>> > <A
href="">http://www.iitm.com./_vti_bin/shtml.dll/regform.htm>
>> > Position Sizing™: The
Secrets> > of the Masters Trading
Game> > Instructions for Level
Three> >> > This level
is similar to level one. You are given a trading>
system> > that goes long in the
market. Your only choice is to decidehow>
> much to risk for each trade. That's it! You
simply decidehow> much>
> to risk. Overall, level two is an even better system
thanlevel> one> >
gave you. Over many trials, your expectancy will be 0.91
as> > compared with 0.45 for the first
level.> >> > Now that
you've reached this level, we recommend that youbegin
by> > saving the game. If you should
go bankrupt, you will have to> start>
> again at the beginning of the game if you don't have a
savedgame> at> > this
level. However, we hope you can get through the
gamewithout> > going
bankrupt.> >> > Once
again, you will have the opportunity to make 75 trades.
Your> > minimum goal is to make a profit
of 50% by the end of the 75> trades>
> so that you can advance to level four. However, you
will> > automatically advance to level three
should you increase your> equity>
> by 500% from the starting value.>
>> > If you have not made a profit at the
end of 75 trades, youwill> need>
> to start this level over again. However, if you have
made a> profit> > that's
less than 50%, you will then have another 25 trades to>
reach> > your goal of 50% to advance to the
next level.> >> > If
you have a loss at the end of 75 trades, you will have
tostart> > the level over again with a
10% penalty (subtracted from your>
prior> > starting
equity).> >> > The
probabilities and payoffs for this level are given in the>
> statistics section of the game (in the View menu.)
We'dsuggest> > that you study them
carefully and develop a strategy beforeyou>
> begin the game.> >>
> Level Three> >>
>> > Questions &
Answers> >> >
Question:> > Why am I not allowed to go
short? I would be right 70% of the> >
time. Isn't that what it's all about?>
>> > Response:>
> Hopefully you'll step out of the box of needing to be right
by> > playing this game. You should be
learning the importance of> large R->
> multiples over being right. Wait until you get a 30R or
20Rtrade> > in your favor and see what
that does for your account. Orwould>
you> > rather have that against you?
If being right is thatimportant to> >
you, you'll have your chance to go against the expectancy
inlevel> > five.>
>> > Question:>
> What's a good strategy to play this game?>
>> > Response:>
> Figuring out a good strategy and learning from your
mistakesis> one> > of
the skill requirements of this game. What is
yourworst-case> > loss? It's four
percent, so you'll risk bankruptcy by risking>
over> > 25% on any trade. Also think
about how many losses you couldhave> >
in a row. You're only right 30% of the time. It's
verylikely> that> >
you might have 9 losses in a row in your 75 trades. You
might> even> > have a
streak of losses as big as 20 or more. You need toplay
to> > survive that you that you can make
money on the 30R tradesthat> > might
come up. With those two guidelines, design your own>
strategy.> >> > IITM
also sells products designed to help you with strategy>
> development. These include 1) the money management
report;2) a> > newsletter issue devoted
to optimal bet size; and 3) optimalbet>
> size software that will be available for purchase in
mid-2002.> >> >
Question:> > Once again, I don't have much
information on any of these> > investments
or trades. How am I to know which one's will
goup?> >> >
Response:> > You don't know what will go up,
that's true. But you do knowthe> >
payoffs and probabilities of the system you will be
trading.> That's> > all
you need to know to figure out to work out bet sizing>
> strategies. Those strategies are the key to success and
thisgame> > is designed to get you away
from predicting the market andinto> >
thinking about those strategies.> >>
> rgds, Pal> >>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "relentless1000"
<cgmv@xxxx>> wrote:>
> > I purchased the "Developing a winning trading system
thatfits> > you">
> > audio tape course back in December 03 (got it on sale
for$699).> > > Just as I've found
with other books and courses its not a> >
blueprint> > > for making a fortune, but
I did come away learning ahandful of> >
> helpful things.> >
>> > > I found it a little pricey
since it is an audio tapedseminar.> >
The> > > advertising for it says it's
profesionally edited. I foundthe>
> > recording to be of less quality than I expected.
Severaltimes> > > through the 12
tapes people in the seminar ask questions ormake>
> > comments that you cannot hear well, sometimes even
the> instructors> > >
cannot be heard for short periods until the microphone
picks> them> > >
up. Not a major problem but for ~ $ 700+, I expect a
little> > better>
> > job than this.> >
>> > > The content is organized well
and pretty informative,altough I> >
think> > > for much less money you could
buy some books and get prettymuch> >
the> > > same info. I think if you
studied Van's book "Trade yourway to> >
> Financial Freedom" and Charles LeBeau's book
"ComputerAnalysis> of>
> > the Futures Market" (Charles was a major part of the
audiotaped> > > course, I found his
input very helpful) you'd get amajority of>
> the> > > technical
content.> > >>
> > Good Luck> >
>> > > GV>
> >> >
>> > >>
> >> > > --- In
amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Al
Venosa"<advenosa@xxxx>> >
wrote:> > > > All of his stuff is
pricey. I never took his peakperformance>
> > course, but I know someone who did. He learned a lot
about> himself> > >
when he went through it, but I don't think he is using
muchof> it> > >
today. Just like anything else. I don't think you are
usingmuch> > of>
> > the stuff you learned in college today, either, but it
wasgood> > > training. You pays your
money and you takes your chances, so>
goes> > the>
> > cliche. Why don't you call Van and ask him about his
course> > >
offerings?> > > >>
> > > Al V.> > >
> ----- Original Message ----->
> > > From: Greg>
> > > To:
amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> > >
> Sent: Saturday, March 06, 2004 10:56 AM>
> > > Subject: Re: [amibroker] Comments on
Van Tharp courses> please>
> > >> > >
>> > > > Al and
Phil,> > > >>
> > > Thanks for your comments on Van Tharps'
courses. I was> >
wondering> > > if you know anything about
his Peak Performance Course for> >
Investors> > > and Traders. It looks
interesting, although a littlepricey. I>
> know> > > of people
paying much more for a personal adviser that works>
with> > > them on some of the areas that
Tharp deals with, such asmaking> a>
> > business plan. Seems like Tharp goes into areas that
will> > > psychologically prepare you for
trading. I guess I'll haveto> read>
> > through the description of the course more thoroughly
andthen> > decide>
> > if I it would be worthwhile for me.>
> > >> > >
> Thanks again for your comments,>
> > >> > >
> Greg> > >
> ----- Original Message ----->
> > > From: Al
Venosa> > > >
To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> > >
> Sent: Saturday, March 06, 2004 11:41
AM> > > >
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Comments on Van Tharp courses>
please> > > >>
> > >> > >
> Hi, Greg:> >
> >> > >
> I took Van's Advanced Stock Market course about
2.5years> > ago.>
> > Don't even know if he still offers it. Although I
enjoyed it> > > immensely, especially all
the money management material, the>
main> > > lecturer, Dennis Ullom, was a
CANSLIM trader of sorts.Since I'm> >
more> > > of a mechanical trading system
type of person, I didn't getthat> >
much> > > out of his presentations
because a lot of that sort oftrading> >
> philosophy is discretionary, or at least subjectivejudgment.
If> > > that's your thing, then you will
likely get a lot more outof it> >
than> > > I did. But I thought the money
management stuff was very> >
worthwhile.> > > For about $80, you could
buy Van's Report on MoneyManagement>
plus> > > his book "Trade Your Way to
Financial Freedom" and learnall you> >
need> > > about money management for a
fraction of the price of his> course,>
> > IMO.> > >
>> > > >
Regards,> > > >>
> > > Al
Venosa> > >
> ----- Original Message
-----> > >
> From: Greg>
> > > To:
AmiBroker@xxxxxxxxxxx> > >
> Sent: Saturday, March 06, 2004 10:18
AM> > >
> Subject: [amibroker] Comments on Van
Tharp courses> please> >
> >> > > >>
> > >
Hi,> > > >>
> > > I was wondering
if anyone here has taken any of the> >
courses> > > offered by Van Tharp. If so
could you please comment onthere> > >
helpfulness.> > >
>> > >
> Thanks,>
> > >
Greg> > > >>
> > >> > >
> Send BUG REPORTS to
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