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Generalized and popularized opinions, LOL? This is not a touchy feely
discussion about social issues, this stuff is pretty cut and dried.
The only thing your post and example goes to show is that you don't
understand what he wrote. You're misleading new traders on this big
time.
What was your methodology? You say you traded the system on 100
stocks, had about 50% winning trades and 8000 total trades. What do
you mean when you say you had no more than 6 losers in a row? No more
than 6 in a row on any single stock? Or did you line up all 8000
trades by date? And if so, did you count *simultaneous losing trades*
as being in a row? And what about sequential groups of simultaneous
losing trades? If not, why not? Simultaneous losing trades would
have a more devastating effect on your account than sequential losing
trades unless you're increasing your trade size as your account goes
down. Trading the ND100 stocks over the same period is like trading a
flock of birds where the majority are moving in roughly the same
direction at any given time. Finally, just because you "could easily
have 10 losses in a row" (p. 138) doesn't mean you *always* will, LOL.
One *valid* counterexample (not sure yours is) or even many shows
nothing. On the contrary, they're to be expected.
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Herman van den Bergen"
<psytek@xxxx> wrote:
> Hello qt,
>
> On page 138 VT writes: "... In fact, over 1000 trials you could
easily have
> 10 losers in a row...."
>
> Here is an old test result of a mediocre trading system that was
designed
> for a handful of stocks, in order to get sufficient trials I ran the
system
> on all stocks of the N100: a bad combination that gave only about
50%
> winning trades. Even so, in the 8000 trades thus simulated there was
not one
> losing streak with more then 6 losers in a row. This goes to show
that
> generalized and popularized opinions may not apply to your system
and for
> this reason I encourage people to do their own homework.
>
> best regards,
> herman
>
>
> Losing Streak 6 5 4 3 2 1
> Probability of occurrence 0.10% 0.31% 0.78% 2.49% 8.49% 37.18%
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: quanttrader714 [mailto:quanttrader714@x...]
> Sent: Tuesday, March 09, 2004 5:47 PM
> To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: [amibroker] Re: Comments on Van Tharp courses please
>
>
> Whoa!!! I feel an obligation to correct the record because you
and Pal
> keep going on and on and clearly neither of you understands this
> stuff. More comments below.
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Herman van den Bergen"
> <psytek@xxxx> wrote:
> > Some time ago we had lengthy discussions on Von Tharp's
theories.
> If i
> > recall correctly he treats the market like a Random phenomena
>
> You recall incorrectly. On page 42 he specifically states "the
markets
> are not random."
>
> > and bases all
> > his statistical analysis on that. This is completely
contradictory
> to those
> > of us who design mechanical trading systems that give 60-75%
winning
> trades,
>
> There is *absolutely nothing at all* contradictory with "Von
Tharp's
> theories" <sic> and "mechanical trading systems that give 60-75%
> winning trades."
>
> > have well distributed and defined losing and winning streaks,
and
> have
> > profit as well as stop control measures in place.
> >
> > At the time of the thread i bought and read his book "Trade your
> way to
> > finacial freedom". It was fun reading however I proved a number
of
> his
> > assumptions wrong 'for my trading systems'; my systems are
> definitely not
> > random.
>
> Where are you getting random systems from? Van Tharp specifically
> says that a system must have a positive expectancy to make money.
In
> other words, an edge. Nothing random about that. Does this mean
the
> concept of randomness has no valid role to play? Absolutely not.
>
>
> >Testing several systems over 280,000 bars, with average trade
> > durations from 2-10 bars his predictions for winning and losing
> streaks for
> > example was way off.
>
> Huh?
>
> >If you are interested you may search the archives, i
> > posted some of my code used to analyze systems, as well as
results
> complete
> > with charts on this list.
> >
> > Far too little time is spend on system analysis, way too much
time
> goes into
> > driving profits up by optimization. All systems are different;
> analyze your
> > own systems, do not believe that anybody else can tell you have
they
> behave
> > under various market conditions.
>
> Again, you've totally missed the point. I urge any new traders
> reading this thread to read Van Tharp's book because the concepts
> absolutely work if understood and applied properly.
>
> >
> > bets regards,
> > herman.
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Pal Anand [mailto:palsanand@x...]
> > Sent: Sunday, March 07, 2004 4:34 PM
> > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: [amibroker] Re: Comments on Van Tharp courses please
> >
> >
> > I downloaded the free "Secrets of the Masters Game" and played
> with
> > it. The first 2 levels are a piece of cake. The 3rd level is
> > difficult, but in only 3 trials out of 75 I finished it. I
think
> I
> > have unlocked the secret code for the right combination of the
> Risk
> > ($ per Share) and Investment level (# Shares to buy.) This
is no
> > mean feat. There is only one combination which is optimum.
Find
> > this combination and I would acknowledge that you are a
Master and
> > you dont need to spend on anything else. Here are the
> instructions
> > to download and for the game:
> >
> > http://www.iitm.com./_vti_bin/shtml.dll/regform.htm
> >
> > Position Sizing™: The Secrets
> > of the Masters Trading Game
> > Instructions for Level Three
> >
> > This level is similar to level one. You are given a trading
> system
> > that goes long in the market. Your only choice is to decide
how
> > much to risk for each trade. That's it! You simply decide
how
> much
> > to risk. Overall, level two is an even better system than
level
> one
> > gave you. Over many trials, your expectancy will be 0.91 as
> > compared with 0.45 for the first level.
> >
> > Now that you've reached this level, we recommend that you
begin by
> > saving the game. If you should go bankrupt, you will have to
> start
> > again at the beginning of the game if you don't have a saved
game
> at
> > this level. However, we hope you can get through the game
without
> > going bankrupt.
> >
> > Once again, you will have the opportunity to make 75 trades.
Your
> > minimum goal is to make a profit of 50% by the end of the 75
> trades
> > so that you can advance to level four. However, you will
> > automatically advance to level three should you increase your
> equity
> > by 500% from the starting value.
> >
> > If you have not made a profit at the end of 75 trades, you
will
> need
> > to start this level over again. However, if you have made a
> profit
> > that's less than 50%, you will then have another 25 trades to
> reach
> > your goal of 50% to advance to the next level.
> >
> > If you have a loss at the end of 75 trades, you will have to
start
> > the level over again with a 10% penalty (subtracted from your
> prior
> > starting equity).
> >
> > The probabilities and payoffs for this level are given in the
> > statistics section of the game (in the View menu.) We'd
suggest
> > that you study them carefully and develop a strategy before
you
> > begin the game.
> >
> > Level Three
> >
> >
> > Questions & Answers
> >
> > Question:
> > Why am I not allowed to go short? I would be right 70% of the
> > time. Isn't that what it's all about?
> >
> > Response:
> > Hopefully you'll step out of the box of needing to be right by
> > playing this game. You should be learning the importance of
> large R-
> > multiples over being right. Wait until you get a 30R or 20R
trade
> > in your favor and see what that does for your account. Or
would
> you
> > rather have that against you? If being right is that
important to
> > you, you'll have your chance to go against the expectancy in
level
> > five.
> >
> > Question:
> > What's a good strategy to play this game?
> >
> > Response:
> > Figuring out a good strategy and learning from your mistakes
is
> one
> > of the skill requirements of this game. What is your
worst-case
> > loss? It's four percent, so you'll risk bankruptcy by risking
> over
> > 25% on any trade. Also think about how many losses you could
have
> > in a row. You're only right 30% of the time. It's very
likely
> that
> > you might have 9 losses in a row in your 75 trades. You might
> even
> > have a streak of losses as big as 20 or more. You need to
play to
> > survive that you that you can make money on the 30R trades
that
> > might come up. With those two guidelines, design your own
> strategy.
> >
> > IITM also sells products designed to help you with strategy
> > development. These include 1) the money management report;
2) a
> > newsletter issue devoted to optimal bet size; and 3) optimal
bet
> > size software that will be available for purchase in mid-2002.
> >
> > Question:
> > Once again, I don't have much information on any of these
> > investments or trades. How am I to know which one's will go
up?
> >
> > Response:
> > You don't know what will go up, that's true. But you do know
the
> > payoffs and probabilities of the system you will be trading.
> That's
> > all you need to know to figure out to work out bet sizing
> > strategies. Those strategies are the key to success and this
game
> > is designed to get you away from predicting the market and
into
> > thinking about those strategies.
> >
> > rgds, Pal
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "relentless1000" <cgmv@xxxx>
> wrote:
> > > I purchased the "Developing a winning trading system that
fits
> > you"
> > > audio tape course back in December 03 (got it on sale for
$699).
> > > Just as I've found with other books and courses its not a
> > blueprint
> > > for making a fortune, but I did come away learning a
handful of
> > > helpful things.
> > >
> > > I found it a little pricey since it is an audio taped
seminar.
> > The
> > > advertising for it says it's profesionally edited. I found
the
> > > recording to be of less quality than I expected. Several
times
> > > through the 12 tapes people in the seminar ask questions or
make
> > > comments that you cannot hear well, sometimes even the
> instructors
> > > cannot be heard for short periods until the microphone picks
> them
> > > up. Not a major problem but for ~ $ 700+, I expect a little
> > better
> > > job than this.
> > >
> > > The content is organized well and pretty informative,
altough I
> > think
> > > for much less money you could buy some books and get pretty
much
> > the
> > > same info. I think if you studied Van's book "Trade your
way to
> > > Financial Freedom" and Charles LeBeau's book "Computer
Analysis
> of
> > > the Futures Market" (Charles was a major part of the audio
taped
> > > course, I found his input very helpful) you'd get a
majority of
> > the
> > > technical content.
> > >
> > > Good Luck
> > >
> > > GV
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Al Venosa"
<advenosa@xxxx>
> > wrote:
> > > > All of his stuff is pricey. I never took his peak
performance
> > > course, but I know someone who did. He learned a lot about
> himself
> > > when he went through it, but I don't think he is using much
of
> it
> > > today. Just like anything else. I don't think you are using
much
> > of
> > > the stuff you learned in college today, either, but it was
good
> > > training. You pays your money and you takes your chances, so
> goes
> > the
> > > cliche. Why don't you call Van and ask him about his course
> > > offerings?
> > > >
> > > > Al V.
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: Greg
> > > > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > Sent: Saturday, March 06, 2004 10:56 AM
> > > > Subject: Re: [amibroker] Comments on Van Tharp courses
> please
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Al and Phil,
> > > >
> > > > Thanks for your comments on Van Tharps' courses. I was
> > wondering
> > > if you know anything about his Peak Performance Course for
> > Investors
> > > and Traders. It looks interesting, although a little
pricey. I
> > know
> > > of people paying much more for a personal adviser that works
> with
> > > them on some of the areas that Tharp deals with, such as
making
> a
> > > business plan. Seems like Tharp goes into areas that will
> > > psychologically prepare you for trading. I guess I'll have
to
> read
> > > through the description of the course more thoroughly and
then
> > decide
> > > if I it would be worthwhile for me.
> > > >
> > > > Thanks again for your comments,
> > > >
> > > > Greg
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: Al Venosa
> > > > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > Sent: Saturday, March 06, 2004 11:41 AM
> > > > Subject: Re: [amibroker] Comments on Van Tharp courses
> please
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Hi, Greg:
> > > >
> > > > I took Van's Advanced Stock Market course about 2.5
years
> > ago.
> > > Don't even know if he still offers it. Although I enjoyed it
> > > immensely, especially all the money management material, the
> main
> > > lecturer, Dennis Ullom, was a CANSLIM trader of sorts.
Since I'm
> > more
> > > of a mechanical trading system type of person, I didn't get
that
> > much
> > > out of his presentations because a lot of that sort of
trading
> > > philosophy is discretionary, or at least subjective
judgment. If
> > > that's your thing, then you will likely get a lot more out
of it
> > than
> > > I did. But I thought the money management stuff was very
> > worthwhile.
> > > For about $80, you could buy Van's Report on Money
Management
> plus
> > > his book "Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom" and learn
all you
> > need
> > > about money management for a fraction of the price of his
> course,
> > > IMO.
> > > >
> > > > Regards,
> > > >
> > > > Al Venosa
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: Greg
> > > > To: AmiBroker@xxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > Sent: Saturday, March 06, 2004 10:18 AM
> > > > Subject: [amibroker] Comments on Van Tharp courses
> please
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Hi,
> > > >
> > > > I was wondering if anyone here has taken any of the
> > courses
> > > offered by Van Tharp. If so could you please comment on
there
> > > helpfulness.
> > > >
> > > > Thanks,
> > > > Greg
> > > >
> > > >
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