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Hello
qt,
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On
page 138 VT writes: "... In fact, over 1000 trials you could easily have 10
losers in a row...."
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Here
is an old test result of a mediocre trading system that was designed for a
handful of stocks, in order to get sufficient trials I ran the system on
all stocks of the N100: a bad combination that gave only about 50% winning
trades. Even so, in the 8000 trades thus simulated there was not one losing
streak with more then 6 losers in a row. This goes to show that generalized
and popularized opinions may not apply to your system and for this reason
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>I encourage people to do their own homework.
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best
regards,
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>herman
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Losing
Streak
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<TD class=xl24
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<FONT face=Arial
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<TD class=xl24
width=42 x:num>
<FONT face=Arial
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<TD class=xl24
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<FONT face=Arial
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Probability of
occurrence
<TD class=xl25
width=42 x:num="1.0357327809425167E-3">
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>0.10%
<TD class=xl25
width=42 x:num="3.1071983428275505E-3">
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>0.31%
<TD class=xl25
width=42 x:num="7.7679958570688766E-3">
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>0.78%
<TD class=xl25
width=42 x:num="2.4857586742620404E-2">
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>2.49%
<TD class=xl25
width=42 x:num="8.4930088037286383E-2">
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>8.49%
<TD class=xl25
width=49 x:num="0.37182806835836352">
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>37.18%
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<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: quanttrader714
[mailto:quanttrader714@xxxxxxxxx]Sent: Tuesday, March 09, 2004 5:47
PMTo: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: [amibroker] Re:
Comments on Van Tharp courses pleaseWhoa!!! I feel an
obligation to correct the record because you and Palkeep going on and on
and clearly neither of you understands thisstuff. More comments
below.--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Herman van den
Bergen"<psytek@xxxx> wrote:> Some time ago we had lengthy
discussions on Von Tharp's theories.If i> recall correctly he
treats the market like a Random phenomena You recall incorrectly. On
page 42 he specifically states "the marketsare not random.">
and bases all> his statistical analysis on that. This is completely
contradictoryto those> of us who design mechanical trading systems
that give 60-75% winningtrades,There is *absolutely nothing at
all* contradictory with "Von Tharp'stheories" <sic> and "mechanical
trading systems that give 60-75%winning trades." > have well
distributed and defined losing and winning streaks, andhave> profit
as well as stop control measures in place.> > At the time of the
thread i bought and read his book "Trade yourway to> finacial
freedom". It was fun reading however I proved a number ofhis>
assumptions wrong 'for my trading systems'; my systems aredefinitely
not> random. Where are you getting random systems from?
Van Tharp specificallysays that a system must have a positive expectancy
to make money. Inother words, an edge. Nothing random about
that. Does this mean theconcept of randomness has no valid role to
play? Absolutely not.>Testing several systems over
280,000 bars, with average trade> durations from 2-10 bars his
predictions for winning and losingstreaks for> example was way off.
Huh?>If you are interested you may search the archives,
i> posted some of my code used to analyze systems, as well as
resultscomplete> with charts on this list.> > Far too
little time is spend on system analysis, way too much timegoes
into> driving profits up by optimization. All systems are
different;analyze your> own systems, do not believe that anybody
else can tell you have theybehave> under various market
conditions.Again, you've totally missed the point. I urge any
new tradersreading this thread to read Van Tharp's book because the
conceptsabsolutely work if understood and applied properly.>
> bets regards,> herman.> -----Original
Message-----> From: Pal Anand
[mailto:palsanand@xxxx]> Sent: Sunday, March 07, 2004 4:34
PM> To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [amibroker] Re: Comments on Van Tharp courses please> >
> I downloaded the free "Secrets of the Masters Game" and
playedwith> it. The first 2 levels are a piece of
cake. The 3rd level is> difficult, but in only 3
trials out of 75 I finished it. I thinkI> have
unlocked the secret code for the right combination of
theRisk> ($ per Share) and Investment level (# Shares
to buy.) This is no> mean feat. There is only
one combination which is optimum. Find> this
combination and I would acknowledge that you are a Master
and> you dont need to spend on anything else. Here
are theinstructions> to download and for the
game:> > <A
href="">http://www.iitm.com./_vti_bin/shtml.dll/regform.htm>
> Position Sizing™: The Secrets> of the
Masters Trading Game> Instructions for Level Three>
> This level is similar to level one. You are given a
tradingsystem> that goes long in the market. Your
only choice is to decide how> much to risk for each
trade. That's it! You simply decide
howmuch> to risk. Overall, level two is an even
better system than levelone> gave you. Over many
trials, your expectancy will be 0.91 as> compared with 0.45
for the first level.> > Now that you've reached this
level, we recommend that you begin by> saving the
game. If you should go bankrupt, you will have
tostart> again at the beginning of the game if you
don't have a saved gameat> this level. However,
we hope you can get through the game without> going
bankrupt.> > Once again, you will have the
opportunity to make 75 trades. Your> minimum goal is
to make a profit of 50% by the end of the 75trades> so
that you can advance to level four. However, you
will> automatically advance to level three should you
increase yourequity> by 500% from the starting
value.> > If you have not made a profit at the end
of 75 trades, you willneed> to start this level over
again. However, if you have made aprofit> that's
less than 50%, you will then have another 25 trades
toreach> your goal of 50% to advance to the next
level.> > If you have a loss at the end of 75
trades, you will have to start> the level over again with a
10% penalty (subtracted from yourprior> starting
equity).> > The probabilities and payoffs for this
level are given in the> statistics section of the game (in
the View menu.) We'd suggest> that you study them
carefully and develop a strategy before you> begin the
game.> > Level Three> >
> Questions & Answers> >
Question:> Why am I not allowed to go short? I would
be right 70% of the> time. Isn't that what it's all
about?> > Response:> Hopefully
you'll step out of the box of needing to be right by>
playing this game. You should be learning the importance oflarge
R-> multiples over being right. Wait until you get a
30R or 20R trade> in your favor and see what that does for
your account. Or wouldyou> rather have that
against you? If being right is that important to>
you, you'll have your chance to go against the expectancy in
level> five.> >
Question:> What's a good strategy to play this
game?> > Response:> Figuring out
a good strategy and learning from your mistakes isone>
of the skill requirements of this game. What is your
worst-case> loss? It's four percent, so you'll risk
bankruptcy by riskingover> 25% on any trade. Also
think about how many losses you could have> in a row.
You're only right 30% of the time. It's very
likelythat> you might have 9 losses in a row in your 75
trades. You mighteven> have a streak of losses as
big as 20 or more. You need to play to> survive that
you that you can make money on the 30R trades that> might
come up. With those two guidelines, design your ownstrategy.>
> IITM also sells products designed to help you with
strategy> development. These include 1) the money
management report; 2) a> newsletter issue devoted to
optimal bet size; and 3) optimal bet> size software that
will be available for purchase in mid-2002.> >
Question:> Once again, I don't have much information on any
of these> investments or trades. How am I to know
which one's will go up?> >
Response:> You don't know what will go up, that's
true. But you do know the> payoffs and probabilities
of the system you will be trading. That's> all you need
to know to figure out to work out bet sizing>
strategies. Those strategies are the key to success and this
game> is designed to get you away from predicting the
market and into> thinking about those strategies.>
> rgds, Pal> > --- In
amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "relentless1000"
<cgmv@xxxx>wrote:> > I purchased the
"Developing a winning trading system that fits>
you"> > audio tape course back in December 03 (got it on
sale for $699).> > Just as I've found with other books
and courses its not a> blueprint> >
for making a fortune, but I did come away learning a handful
of> > helpful things.>
>> > I found it a little pricey since it is an audio
taped seminar.> The> > advertising
for it says it's profesionally edited. I found the>
> recording to be of less quality than I expected. Several
times> > through the 12 tapes people in the seminar ask
questions or make> > comments that you cannot hear well,
sometimes even theinstructors> > cannot be heard for
short periods until the microphone picksthem> >
up. Not a major problem but for ~ $ 700+, I expect a
little> better> > job than
this.> >> > The content is
organized well and pretty informative, altough I>
think> > for much less money you could buy some books
and get pretty much> the> > same
info. I think if you studied Van's book "Trade your way
to> > Financial Freedom" and Charles LeBeau's book
"Computer Analysisof> > the Futures Market" (Charles
was a major part of the audio taped> > course, I found
his input very helpful) you'd get a majority of>
the> > technical content.>
>> > Good Luck>
>> > GV> >>
>> >> >>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Al Venosa"
<advenosa@xxxx>> wrote:> > >
All of his stuff is pricey. I never took his peak
performance> > course, but I know someone who did. He
learned a lot abouthimself> > when he went through
it, but I don't think he is using much ofit> >
today. Just like anything else. I don't think you are using
much> of> > the stuff you learned in
college today, either, but it was good> > training. You
pays your money and you takes your chances, sogoes>
the> > cliche. Why don't you call Van and ask him about
his course> > offerings?> >
>> > > Al V.> >
> ----- Original Message -----> >
> From: Greg> > > To:
amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> > > Sent:
Saturday, March 06, 2004 10:56 AM> > >
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Comments on Van Tharp
coursesplease> > >> >
>> > > Al and
Phil,> > >> > >
Thanks for your comments on Van Tharps' courses. I was>
wondering> > if you know anything about his Peak
Performance Course for> Investors> >
and Traders. It looks interesting, although a little pricey.
I> know> > of people paying much more
for a personal adviser that workswith> > them on
some of the areas that Tharp deals with, such as
makinga> > business plan. Seems like Tharp goes into
areas that will> > psychologically prepare you for
trading. I guess I'll have toread> > through the
description of the course more thoroughly and then>
decide> > if I it would be worthwhile for
me.> > >> > >
Thanks again for your comments,> >
>> > > Greg> >
> ----- Original Message ----->
> > From: Al Venosa> >
> To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Saturday, March 06, 2004 11:41
AM> > > Subject: Re:
[amibroker] Comments on Van Tharp coursesplease> >
>> > >> >
> Hi, Greg:> >
>> > > I took Van's
Advanced Stock Market course about 2.5 years>
ago.> > Don't even know if he still offers it. Although
I enjoyed it> > immensely, especially all the money
management material, themain> > lecturer, Dennis
Ullom, was a CANSLIM trader of sorts. Since I'm>
more> > of a mechanical trading system type of person, I
didn't get that> much> > out of his
presentations because a lot of that sort of trading> >
philosophy is discretionary, or at least subjective judgment.
If> > that's your thing, then you will likely get a lot
more out of it> than> > I did. But I
thought the money management stuff was very>
worthwhile.> > For about $80, you could buy Van's Report
on Money Managementplus> > his book "Trade Your Way
to Financial Freedom" and learn all you>
need> > about money management for a fraction of the
price of hiscourse,> > IMO.> >
>> > >
Regards,> > >> >
> Al Venosa> >
> ----- Original Message
-----> > > From:
Greg> > > To:
AmiBroker@xxxxxxxxxxx> >
> Sent: Saturday, March 06, 2004 10:18
AM> > > Subject:
[amibroker] Comments on Van Tharp coursesplease> >
>> > >> >
> Hi,> >
>> > > I was
wondering if anyone here has taken any of the>
courses> > offered by Van Tharp. If so could you please
comment on there> > helpfulness.>
> >> > >
Thanks,> >
> Greg> >
>> > >> >
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