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Yuki:
Thanks for your thoughts. As for the fellows
previous forecasts, I cannot comment because this is the first one that I have
seen.
Bill
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Yuki
Taga
To: <A title=amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">wavemechanic
Sent: Friday, February 20, 2004 2:33
AM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] @ Yuki
Hi Bill,Friday, February 20, 2004, 1:38:37 PM, you
wrote:w> Yuki:w> w> The following is from a trader in
Singapore. Any comments?w> w> Billw> w> Very
briefly, after many years of purging andw> consolidation JAPAN has the
leanest and meanest mid cap and smallw> cap companies ; some have cash
exceeding NAV and businessw> models that will be produce big cap status
stocks w> within a few short years. Going by valuations as we know it
inw> past cycles will cause many missed opportunities in
whateverw> marketplace. Would suggest one to track the TOPIX Sectors
notw> NIKKEI per see.w> No other country in the Global firmament
satisfies suchw> criteria for sustainable growth.w> w>
Now is the time to take on a Yen Carry Trade to buy Japanesew> stocks,
when most, [probably all, of the laddies have unwoundw> their decimated
positions taken on when it was then veryw> fashionable. Bankers will
say "you must be mad to do this. So manyw> have perished doing this
over the years" Precisely why it isw> timely to do so now.I
would say that there is probably some truth to what is being said,but I
would caution that it is quite optimistic, and there are a lotof possible
flies in the ointment.First, it is true that some companies have
become lean and mean. Butothers refuse to change. The recent
Kanebo situation is a primeexample of how the system still tries to
protect the weak, instead ofletting Darwin take over. Kanebo, the
second-largest cosmetics makerhere, was set to be taken over by Kao, the
biggest "soaper" in Japan.Kao has good inroads into China, and the deal
would have been greatfor both companies. But at the last second, in
steps the IndustrialRevitalization Corporation of Japan (IRCJ). They
decide to giveKanebo a *huge* taxpayer bailout, so that it can remain
independent.Lots of cheap, lousy excuses were given for this.
One unstated butgenuine reason is that the IRCJ has been sniffing around
for a "namebrand" rescue operation so that it could justify its own
existence.Now they have one. Hooray for everyone but the taxpayer
(hooray forthe banks who have loaned this company too much
money).The other thing to remember is that the official business
policyhere, as much and probably more than reform and restructuring, is
totry and keep the dollar from falling too far against the yen.
Thisalso lets companies escape economic realities. But, the escape
maybe just temporary. Who knows if Japan can prop up the dollar
longgiven the really scary list of problems with the US fiscal
position.And Japan spent almost EIGHTY BILLION DOLLARS in January of this
yearALONE trying to defend the dollar. How long can this go
on?On the plus side, Japan is exporting to China like crazy
(andimporting really cheap stuff that is fueling our own
deflation).Japanese steel is flooding the market over there. This does
make thedollar connection a bit less important, and there's talk that
theChinese currency will be revalued (up) later this year, which
Japanwould love.I think the focus on mid- and small-caps is the
way to go. But Iwish I could see more with business models that will
make them bigcap stocks in the future. But then, that is not the
type of tradingthat I do.If the 21st century is to be the century
of China, economically,Japan is extremely well positioned to gain
advantage from this. Butthe devil, as usual, is in the
details.I want to know why this fellow didn't make this call 10 months
ago.He would look like a genius right now. He may still, but it's
notgoing to be nearly as easy from here forward, I
suspect.YukiSend BUG REPORTS to <A
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