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The following experiment speaks better:
There are two ^NDX data series.
The first, ^NDX1 is updated up to Jan6, 2004.
The second, ^NDX2 is updated up to Feb18, 2004.
I use Ace code with
p1=20;p2=40;p3=80;
and, at the end of the code I added the
Cross1=Cross(cma1*(1+m*dp1),cma2*(1+m*dp2));Title="The
last Cross occurred on
"+WriteVal(ValueWhen(Cross1,DateTime()),formatDateTime);
to see when the upper red line crosses the upper blue line [it
could be a trading signal]
The last 3 signals appear on
<FONT
size=2>NDX1
NDX2
28/08/2003
15/07/2003
21/10/2003
02/09/2003
30/12/2003
07/01/2004
The curves [and their properties] change as new data are
imported.
The past history is different every new day !!
It is obvious [I hope] we can not use this approach in real
life, any signals arising from these lines are tricky [and quite dangerous of
course !!]
Thanks to the excellent Ace effort we have this "Cyclic logic"
in clear AFL and we can check the numerous fallacies written
here and there for this "great" tool.
Note also that the signals do not match even if we go
two/three years back !!!
Dimitris Tsokakis
----- Original Message -----
From: <A
title=tsokakis@xxxxxxxxx href="">Dimitris Tsokakis
To: <A title=amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Thursday, February 19, 2004 11:07 AM
Subject: Cyclic Indicators
There was an interesting thread [Subject: Tomasz: Suggestion re
cyclic indicators], back on May 2002.It began with jtaylorhk # 17518, May19,
2002 and closed with #17622, May 20, 2002.Interesting TASC references were
included, together with explanatory gifs.The main problem is that FFT [or
parabolic fit] looks [strongly] into the future.We may see now, after Ace
code at <A
href="">http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/message/59058,
what is really going on.There are two NDX graphs in the att. gifThe
above graph is updated up to Jan6, 2004.
The red 20p line crosses the blue 40p line on Dec29, 2003 [red point
X]In the below graph, NDX is updated up to Feb18, 2004.We see that the
same cross is now placed at Jan6 [red point X], ie 5 bars later !!!As new
data are added, the lines of the past change !!!This undesirable property
makes the study useless, as Ace pointed out.I do not know how to overcome
this problem.Dimitris Tsokakis
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