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Yuki,
note also that the second half of 2003 [our range] the big guys did
not have to worry about many things. The market was going up, just a
few pushes from time to time but nothing important, the bullish
period was matching well with the buyers sentiment.
Now, after the last peak, the market is tired [and confused a bit].
This was perfectly shown by the main StochD divergence : Despites the
price new high, the StochD could not follow.
The last negative bars [more than a week] make the buyers think again
why to buy at high prices. The most enthusiastic of them bought
around 11,000. If they have not already close their positions [with
losses], they will not buy again at 10,400 or 10,300.
All these things cause some timing changes, we can not avoid it.
Buyers of 10,000 are waiting a selling pressure, sellers of 10,400
are not prompt to apply strong Short pressure to meet the 10,000
level and make some Short profits around 9,500.
For these ambiguous periods the role of IPs is, if nothing else,
protective.
Dimitris Tsokakis
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx> wrote:
> Hi DIMITRIS,
>
> Tuesday, February 10, 2004, 6:13:54 PM, you wrote:
>
> DT> Yuki, We saw the same trouble the first days after IP 10. The
> DT> system will try Long profits for the next 10 bars [SellFreq is
> DT> still 28, we are already 18 bars after the last Sell signal] As
> DT> you know, the system checks in every IP the best Equity curve
and
> DT> trades the next 17 bars according to this principle. Is there
any
> DT> idea to change the basic principle ?
>
> No, not at all. Just remarking that you had mentioned that this
> timing breaks down after a while (or may break down), and (may) need
> a new model. Perhaps we are hitting the limit now on this model from
> early 2003. But maybe not. I am not too enthusiastic about longs in
> the next 10 bars, but we shall see. Interestingly, in 10 plus bars I
> might be much more interested. But this is only flight of fancy, no
> hard TA here to back it up. We have a supply/demand problem here
> right now, one that will ease in a couple of weeks, as banks wind up
> their cross holding sales prior to the fiscal year end on 3/31.
Most
> of it will wind up prior to the end of February.
>
> DT> We can not pick up the
> DT> ascending curve of the day, it is not good for the long run. The
> DT> [29,33] combination, for example, was ascending today, but it
was
> DT> not the optimal selection [it is at 16,000 vs 18,000]and
> DT> [probably] will not be in the next IP. Since you watch the code,
> DT> if you have any idea to change the method, let me know and I
will
> DT> try to AFL it. BTW,here is an update for the IP digits.You will
> DT> read now IP10, IP11 etc [Bill asked the same feature]
>
> Thanks DT.
>
> Yuki
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