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<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Corey,
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
I
tried the two-level approach first as I feel it is the best way to see if what
is happening makes sense. I am now running a more dynamic version
that will multiply the Hilbert periods by a constant factor. I believe
that the final factor for this particular system will be something like 33% of
the Hilbert cycle length. I suspect (hope?) that I will get another minor
improvement in results. I'll let you know how it goes.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
I have
other tests ready to go that use variations on your default
settings. But I am delighted with the action I am getting so
far.
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Corey Saxe
[mailto:res1wgwl@xxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Monday, February 09, 2004 12:23
PMTo: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [amibroker]
Re: Determining cycles
Chuck,
Glad to hear it, and glad to have helped someone that has
helped me so much.
I have yet to settle on what I would consider to be the best
cycle finder too. I use several and they are in a constant state
'improvement'.
Thanks for posting your results. Using Hilbert to decide
between two input parameters is sometimes all it takes.
I started using Hilbert cycle periods back in my
MetaStock days but was blocked in using their full potential since MS doesn't
allow dynamic period input for most, if not all of its formulas and
indicators. When I got a chance to actually test some concepts in AB and saw
the results, I supported dynamic parameter input, which is really what makes a
self-adjusting formula possible. The computer in your car measures air flow
and temperature, RPM, throttle plate position, and engine temp to continuously
tune itself to the current environment, why can't a trading system do the
same?
You have advantages in working with stocks. With futures, I
need to fine-tune individual formulas to different markets. Australian dollar
is around $0.76 whereas DJIA is around 10,500, and Hilbert CP perceives the
amount of price change necessary to detect a cycle differently in each market.
But hey, it's worth it. :-)
-CS
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
<A title=chuck_rademacher@xxxxxxxxxx
href="">Chuck Rademacher
To: <A title=amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, February 09, 2004 1:20
AM
Subject: RE: [amibroker] Re:
Determining cycles
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Corey,
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>FWIW, your T3 version of Hilbert cycle finder is working best for
me. Of course, that doesn't mean that it is the best. It
is working best in combination with my systems.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
If
you are interest in how I am using it...
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>This particular system had an optimised lookback of 10
days. Using your version of the Hilbert Cycle finder, I ended up
by saying something like this:
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial
color=#0000ff size=2>lookback = IIF(HilbertPeriod() > 30, 12,
8)
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>These values (30,12,8) were all optimised, but made logical sense to
me and actually were my initial defaults.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Ten-year CAR on 19,000 stocks, 1% slippage, taking 35 positions at a
time, shorting against an up-trend went from 50% to 60% and max drawdown
went from 40% to 20%.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Thanks for prompting me to have another look at dynamically adjusting
lookback periods.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2> Send BUG REPORTS to
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