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<The next thing you'll be suggesting, *I guess*, is that low raw VIX
numbers induce Fed policy statement changes.>
Glad I don't trade based upon some of your guesses ;-)
Phsst
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx> wrote:
> Hi Phsst,
>
> Thursday, January 29, 2004, 9:20:08 PM, you wrote:
>
> P> <I think the market got a curve ball (baseball pitch that doesn't fly
> P> straight) from the Fed.>
>
> P> Three months from now when we have all but forgotten what the Fed did
> P> on Monday, we will look back at the charts and notice the low VIX
> P> number prior to the selloff.
>
> P> Some of us will then say Damn... shoulda, woulda, coulda.!
> P> Others will say Damn that VIX is unreliable!
>
> P> he he he...
>
> Anyone who follows this, or who follows Larry Connors, who started
> it, knows the following about VIX:
>
> ** There is no such thing as a "low VIX number". Larry will tell
> you, it doesn't matter what the raw number is, only WHERE it is in
> relation to its 10-day MA. That is the only thing that counts,
> according to the guy who got all this rolling in "Street Smarts"
> years ago.
>
> ** It has to be substantially (about 10 percent) below its 10-day MA
> to indicate a sell signal.
>
> On Tuesday (in the US), the day before the Fed announcement, VXO
> closed essentially ON the 10-day MA. Same with the VIX. Both were
> just a shade below, maybe about 1 percent, or one-tenth the required
> amount.
>
> The next thing you'll be suggesting, I guess, is that low raw VIX
> numbers induce Fed policy statement changes.
>
> ^^_^^
>
> Yuki
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