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I hope it is more clear now.
Tomorrow is gonna be another day.
Dimitris Tsokakis
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS" <TSOKAKIS@xxxx>
wrote:
> Yuki,
> I will not agree for the US "rally".
> If you see Friday+Monday 5min, it was a simple U-shape, nothing
more.
> I do not expect higher prices today.
> The DAX+CAC [+FTSE perhaps] outlook is against this opinion, but,
the
> recent NDX div should be more ...expensive.
> We shall see...
> Dimitris Tsokakis
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx> wrote:
> > Hi DIMITRIS,
> >
> > Tuesday, January 27, 2004, 4:07:15 PM, you wrote:
> >
> > DT> "The only reason we went lower on Monday ..." Yuki, Since we
> > DT> usually think in the [narrow] way "reason->result", we
express
> > DT> two different schools, fundamentals vs technical. I prefer to
> > DT> consider the divergence as the "reason". It may look strange
[a
> > DT> divergence can never cause a result] but, if you overcome
this,
> > DT> there are some benefits. You can never anticipate UFJ scandals
> > DT> [some other always know in advance...].
> >
> > I really am livid about this UFJ scandal, too. Not because I was
> > long the stock -- I was not. But I am livid because we *still* do
> > not know the truth.
> >
> > On Saturday the newspaper said that the FSA would be investigating
> > UFJ. But UFJ says that they have no notification of this from the
> > FSA, and that they (of course) stand by their financial reports.
> And
> > the FSA says "no comment".
> >
> > I really riles me that a government agency -- an agency that
> *surely*
> > leaked the story to the press in the first place -- can maintain
a
> no
> > comment policy after the news has been made public. The public is
> > left to twist in the wind, trying to figure out if there is fact
> > behind this, or just rumor, and it's not right.
> >
> > DT> If you try this direction you will be sooner or later a
victim
> > DT> of various rumors. On the other side, you may anticipate [or
at
> > DT> least expect] a StochD div. If it doesn´t bother your logic,
you
> > DT> may consider the technical event as the "reason" for the next
> > DT> movement [the result]. If nothing else, you will avoid some
> > DT> crucial mistakes. If we follow up our recent discussion we
would
> > DT> *buy on Thursday/Friday, because of the next week expectations
> > DT> [!!] *sell on Monday, because of the bad UFJ news *buy again
on
> > DT> Tuesday, because of what ? [Is the scandal over ?]
> >
> > No, I don't trade like that at all of course.
> >
> > DT> Of course, trading is a personal affair and the old problem
for
> > DT> the chicken and the egg is still unsolved [at least AFAIK]
> > DT> Dimitris Tsokakis PS BTW, this young girl Naoko Sakamoto was
> > DT> really great last Sunday. 2:25:29 for Jan is most promissing.
I
> > DT> hope we enjoy her talent in the Olympics.
> >
> > Yes, she's very good.
> >
> > Well, today was a bit of a surprise I think. Divergence or no
> > divergence, when the US has a rally like that and we end up down,
> > it's rather unusual.
> >
> > I still don't think there is enough room on the short side for a
> > profitable trade however. Anyone that shorted before today surely
> > was blown out by the combination of the US rally and today's
sharply
> > higher open.
> >
> > But the Osaka Boyz put the pressure on today, capping every rally
> > attempt.
> >
> > There are divergences on just about every type of oscillator you
can
> > look at of course. And this is often the case in long up trends
> that
> > get extended a bit. But I am much more interested in the
> divergences
> > when we are at the bottom of the oscillation in a rising market,
> than
> > those at the top. A lot of the oscillators here are down at the
> > bottom now, not a place I'd like to be shorting, unless I was in a
> > confirmed bear market.
> >
> > Clearly, they could not take it up today, and the close was rather
> > pathetic. But volume went *way* down today, and there wasn't much
> > acceleration on the downside, either. I have had no signals this
> > week, so I'm just sitting and waiting. And the volatility has
dried
> > up my setup pool a bit, but not completely.
> >
> > One item of note, which did surprise me, and also alerted me to
what
> > kind of day it might be today: About 10 minutes before the open I
> get
> > the pre-market buy and sell balance of foreign orders. Today,
> > despite the US rally, the foreign selling could only be described
as
> > heavy. In fact, it was the heaviest single day net selling since
> > November 18. I was a bit surprised to see it. But they have been
> > ramping this up on earnings expectations, and we are seeing those
> > earnings starting today and the rest of this week, so maybe it's
the
> > old buy on rumor, sell on fact, play. It would not surprise.
> >
> > Yuki
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