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Yuki,
I will not agree for the US "rally".
If you see Friday+Monday 5min, it was a simple U-shape, nothing more.
I do not expect higher prices today.
The DAX+CAC [+FTSE perhaps] outlook is against this opinion, but, the
recent NDX div should be more ...expensive.
We shall see...
Dimitris Tsokakis
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx> wrote:
> Hi DIMITRIS,
>
> Tuesday, January 27, 2004, 4:07:15 PM, you wrote:
>
> DT> "The only reason we went lower on Monday ..." Yuki, Since we
> DT> usually think in the [narrow] way "reason->result", we express
> DT> two different schools, fundamentals vs technical. I prefer to
> DT> consider the divergence as the "reason". It may look strange [a
> DT> divergence can never cause a result] but, if you overcome this,
> DT> there are some benefits. You can never anticipate UFJ scandals
> DT> [some other always know in advance...].
>
> I really am livid about this UFJ scandal, too. Not because I was
> long the stock -- I was not. But I am livid because we *still* do
> not know the truth.
>
> On Saturday the newspaper said that the FSA would be investigating
> UFJ. But UFJ says that they have no notification of this from the
> FSA, and that they (of course) stand by their financial reports.
And
> the FSA says "no comment".
>
> I really riles me that a government agency -- an agency that
*surely*
> leaked the story to the press in the first place -- can maintain a
no
> comment policy after the news has been made public. The public is
> left to twist in the wind, trying to figure out if there is fact
> behind this, or just rumor, and it's not right.
>
> DT> If you try this direction you will be sooner or later a victim
> DT> of various rumors. On the other side, you may anticipate [or at
> DT> least expect] a StochD div. If it doesn´t bother your logic, you
> DT> may consider the technical event as the "reason" for the next
> DT> movement [the result]. If nothing else, you will avoid some
> DT> crucial mistakes. If we follow up our recent discussion we would
> DT> *buy on Thursday/Friday, because of the next week expectations
> DT> [!!] *sell on Monday, because of the bad UFJ news *buy again on
> DT> Tuesday, because of what ? [Is the scandal over ?]
>
> No, I don't trade like that at all of course.
>
> DT> Of course, trading is a personal affair and the old problem for
> DT> the chicken and the egg is still unsolved [at least AFAIK]
> DT> Dimitris Tsokakis PS BTW, this young girl Naoko Sakamoto was
> DT> really great last Sunday. 2:25:29 for Jan is most promissing. I
> DT> hope we enjoy her talent in the Olympics.
>
> Yes, she's very good.
>
> Well, today was a bit of a surprise I think. Divergence or no
> divergence, when the US has a rally like that and we end up down,
> it's rather unusual.
>
> I still don't think there is enough room on the short side for a
> profitable trade however. Anyone that shorted before today surely
> was blown out by the combination of the US rally and today's sharply
> higher open.
>
> But the Osaka Boyz put the pressure on today, capping every rally
> attempt.
>
> There are divergences on just about every type of oscillator you can
> look at of course. And this is often the case in long up trends
that
> get extended a bit. But I am much more interested in the
divergences
> when we are at the bottom of the oscillation in a rising market,
than
> those at the top. A lot of the oscillators here are down at the
> bottom now, not a place I'd like to be shorting, unless I was in a
> confirmed bear market.
>
> Clearly, they could not take it up today, and the close was rather
> pathetic. But volume went *way* down today, and there wasn't much
> acceleration on the downside, either. I have had no signals this
> week, so I'm just sitting and waiting. And the volatility has dried
> up my setup pool a bit, but not completely.
>
> One item of note, which did surprise me, and also alerted me to what
> kind of day it might be today: About 10 minutes before the open I
get
> the pre-market buy and sell balance of foreign orders. Today,
> despite the US rally, the foreign selling could only be described as
> heavy. In fact, it was the heaviest single day net selling since
> November 18. I was a bit surprised to see it. But they have been
> ramping this up on earnings expectations, and we are seeing those
> earnings starting today and the rest of this week, so maybe it's the
> old buy on rumor, sell on fact, play. It would not surprise.
>
> Yuki
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