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Hi DIMITRIS,
Tuesday, January 27, 2004, 4:07:15 PM, you wrote:
DT> "The only reason we went lower on Monday ..." Yuki, Since we
DT> usually think in the [narrow] way "reason->result", we express
DT> two different schools, fundamentals vs technical. I prefer to
DT> consider the divergence as the "reason". It may look strange [a
DT> divergence can never cause a result] but, if you overcome this,
DT> there are some benefits. You can never anticipate UFJ scandals
DT> [some other always know in advance...].
I really am livid about this UFJ scandal, too. Not because I was
long the stock -- I was not. But I am livid because we *still* do
not know the truth.
On Saturday the newspaper said that the FSA would be investigating
UFJ. But UFJ says that they have no notification of this from the
FSA, and that they (of course) stand by their financial reports. And
the FSA says "no comment".
I really riles me that a government agency -- an agency that *surely*
leaked the story to the press in the first place -- can maintain a no
comment policy after the news has been made public. The public is
left to twist in the wind, trying to figure out if there is fact
behind this, or just rumor, and it's not right.
DT> If you try this direction you will be sooner or later a victim
DT> of various rumors. On the other side, you may anticipate [or at
DT> least expect] a StochD div. If it doesn´t bother your logic, you
DT> may consider the technical event as the "reason" for the next
DT> movement [the result]. If nothing else, you will avoid some
DT> crucial mistakes. If we follow up our recent discussion we would
DT> *buy on Thursday/Friday, because of the next week expectations
DT> [!!] *sell on Monday, because of the bad UFJ news *buy again on
DT> Tuesday, because of what ? [Is the scandal over ?]
No, I don't trade like that at all of course.
DT> Of course, trading is a personal affair and the old problem for
DT> the chicken and the egg is still unsolved [at least AFAIK]
DT> Dimitris Tsokakis PS BTW, this young girl Naoko Sakamoto was
DT> really great last Sunday. 2:25:29 for Jan is most promissing. I
DT> hope we enjoy her talent in the Olympics.
Yes, she's very good.
Well, today was a bit of a surprise I think. Divergence or no
divergence, when the US has a rally like that and we end up down,
it's rather unusual.
I still don't think there is enough room on the short side for a
profitable trade however. Anyone that shorted before today surely
was blown out by the combination of the US rally and today's sharply
higher open.
But the Osaka Boyz put the pressure on today, capping every rally
attempt.
There are divergences on just about every type of oscillator you can
look at of course. And this is often the case in long up trends that
get extended a bit. But I am much more interested in the divergences
when we are at the bottom of the oscillation in a rising market, than
those at the top. A lot of the oscillators here are down at the
bottom now, not a place I'd like to be shorting, unless I was in a
confirmed bear market.
Clearly, they could not take it up today, and the close was rather
pathetic. But volume went *way* down today, and there wasn't much
acceleration on the downside, either. I have had no signals this
week, so I'm just sitting and waiting. And the volatility has dried
up my setup pool a bit, but not completely.
One item of note, which did surprise me, and also alerted me to what
kind of day it might be today: About 10 minutes before the open I get
the pre-market buy and sell balance of foreign orders. Today,
despite the US rally, the foreign selling could only be described as
heavy. In fact, it was the heaviest single day net selling since
November 18. I was a bit surprised to see it. But they have been
ramping this up on earnings expectations, and we are seeing those
earnings starting today and the rest of this week, so maybe it's the
old buy on rumor, sell on fact, play. It would not surprise.
Yuki
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