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Hi DIMITRIS,
Thursday, January 22, 2004, 10:39:20 PM, you wrote:
DT> Yuki,
DT> this expectation [next week announcements] is exactly what will keep
DT> the buyers near the current prices, in the case the big boys apply
DT> moderate short pressure. The analysts try the same thing, to persuade
DT> next day buyers to be there, at -1% or -1.5%. The next TSE session
DT> will be interesting, you should be [and you will be]sensitive enough
DT> to detect if [and how] selling pressure is applied. IMO the DAX
DT> market makers are [till now] net sellers. The same in France [and, of
DT> course, it is more than obvious here in Athens !!]. An ^NDX below -1%
DT> will turn the red light on and will give all the necessary excuses
DT> for you to be negative tomorrow.
DT> This scenario may be true.
Well, as I wake up this Friday morning, I see you have raised
interesting points as usual, DT. Indeed, your comment about the
market makers being net sellers does fit in with our recent 3 day
action, namely: higher in the morning, give it all up in the
afternoon -- which is the opposite of what has been going on in the
US lately. Actually, I felt the same way here this week at the
highs, but the highs are 2 percent above where we are right now, and
the bids at this level, as I mentioned yesterday, were of very large
size -- these are not home traders watching an Internet screen
putting in bids for US$ 10 million each in layers below the offer.
And we did get an NDX of -1.05% last night, so we shall see what
happens. However as regards Tokyo, the Chicago Boyz *again* refused
to take the sakimono lower (two Japanese words for you: saki [ahead
or forward] & mono [thing] = sakimono [futures]), leaving it above
the Osaka close, and trading all night in Osaka's previous range. In
fact, the *low* in Chicago all night was higher than Osaka's close
yesterday. Of course Chicago does not dictate what Osaka will do
however, so we shall see, and I see a yen rate a full yen above
yesterday morning's rate today (106.03 versus about 107.1 yesterday).
If *anything* will be negative, that will.
My guess here is that anything on a pullback today is not going to be
tradable though. Too many "bargain" hunters right now, bargain
hunters that haven't been burned on one of their "bargains" recently.
Until that happens, a real correction is impossible, only dangerous
choppiness. There is no fear yet, and until we get some fear we
don't get enough selling to create a real correction. We have to
fall more than 3 percent more here to even rattle anyone at all I
think. Would take a close below 10,700 to induce a small measure
doubt into the market. Down 100 today, or 150? Very possible of
course, as it is on almost any day. But those levels would be seen
as opportunity here, rather than a reason to panic. So . . . a full
5 percent "correction" from Tuesday's highs would only *begin* to
raise eyebrows. It will take more to turn this market. Could
happen, but that is where I see the goalposts.
Chop-chop,
Yuki
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