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Hi DIMITRIS,
Tuesday, January 20, 2004, 4:14:18 PM, you wrote:
DT> Yuki,
DT> 1.
DT> An invH&S with NEGATIVE SLOPE neck line [in a bullish environment] is
DT> perhaps the best case [the same with a H&S with a positive slope neck
DT> line in a bearish environment]. The target is lower day by day, time
DT> is on your side.
Well DT, I had never considered those two qualifiers together before,
but I shall certainly keep my eyes open, and do some looking back as
well. Thanks.
DT> I know we have different angles to see the same thing, but this is my
DT> H&S experience : During the last bearish years the invH&S were rare
DT> and could not reach the target, it was the verification period for
DT> H&S. Now the environment has changed. As you remember, ^N225 could
DT> not reach its last November H&S target, the bullish market was not
DT> helping this [bearish] formation.
That is correct; it came up just a little short of the target.
DT> I do not trade ^N225 [I have to "study" it first], but SYMC broke its
DT> neckline at $33 and will meet its negative slope target line at $37
DT> [in 18 bars] and it is no way a joke.[Friday´s high was $37.3 ...]
DT> 2.
DT> The timing system is for June2003 till May 2004 period. Note also
DT> that it follows the top Equity and a draw back is not a surprise. As
DT> I wrote yesterday, other potential combinations are coming to replace
DT> the 25/28 if it is not the next IP champion. [I like the 18/37, it
DT> has the 4th rank now but it is ascending the last bars...].
DT> 3. For the short term, the Keltner observation was interesting and
DT> could take you from 10,715 [Jan16 opening] to 11,193[Jan20 high].
DT> It was more than +4% in 3 sessions...
If you exited at the high, yes. ^_-
DT> ^N225 was a good boy today, its high touched the upper TEMA Keltner
DT> resistance in 3 sessions and this is perhaps an explanation why we
DT> may still use this 40-year theory like a 40-year red wine [note here
DT> that I still enjoy the Stones...]
Brown Sugah . . . but they are really past their prime these days.
^^_^^
Some things to keep an eye on as usual DT. Thanks.
BTW, we closed poorly today, which is not a big surprise. I almost
shorted, but it's the "too cute" play right now. A bit early and
right into strength is not the way to go. But a little H&S on the
futures in the PM session, after the fake move back to challenge the
(11,200) high failed. Then it was straight down, with futures closing
more than 50 below cash, and only +30. Maybe some of that timing
equity will come back -- but it all depends on the US tonight. Today
was "play day" (while the cat [US market] is away, the Japanese mice
will play).
Surprisingly, our banks went nowhere today, even in the mad craziness
of the early PM session, and finished down. For a long, long time,
the market has followed the banks -- in both directions. Maybe this
pattern is finally going to end, or maybe that's why the futures gave
it almost all back by the close.
Yuki
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