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Hi DIMITRIS,
Interesting subject, but I find the idea of beating a descending
market kind of odd. Not the idea of beating it of course, but the
idea that my positive return has to exceed the market's negative
return. Shorting is just a different animal. Far fewer people
participate on that side than on the long side, and it's against the
normal bias anyway (at least normal for this past century).
Yes, B&H is for inactive investors, but there should probably be a
lot more of those than there are. ^^_^^ Every trader should
probably take a look at the past 5 years. If you didn't beat putting
your money in an index fund over that period, maybe this isn't for
you. Many probably would not want to hear that however, and I will
admit that one great killing in the future could potentially reverse
the numbers. But I think you know what I mean.
To answer your question, all margin trades in Tokyo are for a maximum
term of 6 months. The position must be closed by the end of the
term. You can immediately create a new position of course, if you
like.
One thing I have watched for in the past is a sudden spike in short
interest. If I catch it quickly, and it holds, I start the timer and
start watching. But of course the subsequent covering action can be
all intraday as they just cover and reshort immediately. From a
practical standpoint however, few ever reach term on margin
positions. I don't have stats on it, but there is an old saying here
to the effect that if you reach term on a margin trade, you are
probably dead. Would not always be true of course, but I'll bet it's
true a lot.
Yuki
Wednesday, January 14, 2004, 2:59:40 PM, you wrote:
DT> It would be more fair to speak about the S&H [Short & Hold]
DT> technique also. Do you have any statistics about the average time
DT> interval the potential Short Sellers keep their Short position
DT> in the Japanese market ? Is it a week, a month, 6 months or a
DT> year perhaps ? In this sense, it would not be that easy to beat
DT> the descending market, you should make Short profits better than
DT> the S&H for the last 5 years. This information would be quite
DT> important and could form a crude basis for the ^N225 periodicity
DT> [1Long/2 Short or even 1Long/3 Short periods] and then apply
DT> timeseries analysis, a quite flexible statistical tool. Some
DT> systems #buy every 20 days/sell every 24 days# are successful
DT> because they immitate this behavior by dividing a time interval
DT> into rolling unequal parts.
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