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Hi Dimitris,
Friday, January 2, 2004, 5:48:46 PM, you wrote:
DT> Shall the bullish resistance breakout plus the double H S
DT> neckline bullish breakout help Nikkei to overcome the recent Jan
DT> tradition
DT> and reach the H S target [it will be 11140 in 10 trading
DT> bars] ?
DT> The first Jan bars were negative the last 3 years, but,
DT> ...things change.
Very well might. The overall picture here looks like mid to late
August to me. At that time, a seriously overbought market (like we
have at this moment) simply walked off the overbought with very
little correction, then turned higher. But we are *quite* over
bought right now on a number of different levels, so I think anything
substantially higher has to come back and base a bit. Watch the
yen/dollar closely. BoJ is apparently losing a battle, similar to
the one they lost in September. They take the yen down, and the
market jacks it right back up, almost daring them to act again. My
guess is major players, having seen where BoJ is active, are riding
their coat tails, then ramping it back the other way, then riding
again. BoJ will need a new trick to hold 105 maybe, and if that
falls this market will really go into a funk over it. Also the US is
very over bought short term and probably other time frames as well,
and we take a lot of cues from US price movements.
Yuki
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