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Thank you, Harvey. You're right in that I'm not using future data. I
just want to move the moving average to the RIGHT 4 bars. Joe
DiNapoli for one uses this technique as does Advanced GET.
Bill
==============================================================
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, harveyhp <harveyhp@xxxx> wrote:
> As I read the original message he is talking about a RIGHT-shifted
moving average. Several programs do this, eg Profitunity. They are
not looking into the future, they just want the MA from N bars ago
plotted under the current bar. A left-shifted MA would be looking
into the future and would probably require additional equipment,
such as a crystral ball.
> HHP
> =============
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Dave Merrill
> To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Sent: 29 December, 2003 8:49 PM
> Subject: RE: [amibroker] Shifting MA's
>
>
> Joe, please excuse if I'm over-whacking the obvious here, but I
think you said you were new to AB, so I wanted to make sure you
understood some important basics.
>
> Just because you can write a formula that directly refers to
future data doesn't mean that that's a valid thing to do. The most
obvious example, Ref(array, offset) can take a negative offset,
meaning the number of bars BACK to look, or a positive offset,
meaning the number of bars IN THE FUTURE to look. While there are
situations where it may make sense to do that (pattern analysis
etc), obviously you can't trade signals based on future data,
because as good as AB is, the future bars it would have to look at
don't exist yet today, which is when you need the signal. Systems
that peek into the future can backtest amazingly well (see the Zig
function), but can't be traded in real life; it'd be like looking
past the right edge of the chart. There are a bunch of ways to
reference future data in AB, and it's mostly up to you do understand
how your formulas work and avoid it. The Check btn in the backtester
will try to warn you, if it can tell, but understanding is your real
tool here.
>
> Directly referencing future data is fundamentally different from
extrapolating an estimate of it, which at the root of it is what
we're all trying to do -- guess the future by looking at the past.
As long as you don't actually read data from future bars to generate
today's indicators, any way you can think of to make today's
decisions is ok. As to how you might do that, well, that's trading
system design (;-).
>
> I'm probably going on and on here explaining the painfully
obvious. The point is just that until you're really confident of
your AFL skills and fully understand the limited situations when
it's ok, I'd strongly suggest not referencing future data, ever.
>
> Make sense?
>
> Dave
> Dave..
>
> It's certainly interesting that you can write code for
projecting MA's ahead of current price bars....into the future so to
speak.
>
> That makes me think that you might be able to also project
other data into the future as well. What I have in mind specifically
is price data and my interest arises from the fact that
the "projection of price data" into the future and the manipulations
that can be done with it, account in large measure for the
development of Jim Hurst's "Cycle Analysis Program".
>
> Jim Hurst is regarded by many to be the father of cyclic
analysis.
>
> Maybe I could use an example to more clearly show what I'm
driving at.
>
> Suppose you had a printed copy of a daily chart of say the
Nasdaq.....could be anything actually. Then you take an ordinary
drafting room "bow compass" and adjust the points (needle point on
one end and pencil point on the other end) to say 40 days.
>
> Then with the needle point of the compass you trace over the
current price bar centers starting with the last bar and working
backward....simple enough and by keeping the two compass points
horizontal as you trace over the price data with the needle point
you also leave a "line trail" that's made by the pencil point.
>
> That trail is, in effect, a projection of current daily
prices 40 days into the future and that's what I would like to be
able to convince the computer to do.
>
> It was not unusual in Hurst's program for several price
projections, of different lengths, to be drawn and shown together in
what he called "cascading patterns".
>
> He called the projections FLD LINES for "future lines of
demarcation" and were the foundation of most of his work.
>
> His program was detailed in 10, elaborately done, lessons
which could only be described as a labor of love.
>
> I frequently use the bow compass projection routine but it
would be great if there were AB code available that could do the job.
>
> Does it sound possible?
>
> thanks for listening,
>
> ...........Joe Platt
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Dave Merrill
> To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Sent: Monday, December 29, 2003 11:10 AM
> Subject: RE: [amibroker] Shifting MA's
>
>
> ma_shifted = Ref(ma_original, 4);
>
> I'm probably misunderstanding what you're trying to do, but
that makes the average appear 4 bars before the data from which it
was created, looking into the future. Not a tradable design.
>
> Dave
> How can I shift a moving average horizontally to the
right? I am
> trying to move the moving average of the close 4 bars to
the right.
>
> Thanks in advance.
>
> Bill
>
>
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