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Re: [amibroker] Artificial Intelligence, an introduction, ^N225 2003


  • To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Subject: Re: [amibroker] Artificial Intelligence, an introduction, ^N225 2003
  • From: "john gibb" <jgibb1@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Wed, 17 Dec 2003 10:24:24 -0800
  • In-reply-to: <001901c3c4a0$2a378940$916305d5@alteccomputer>

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Hi DT,
 
thanks for all the labor!
 
My report results, using the old backtester, are identical to 
yours! (with Yahoo EOD data(unpurified) and Amibroker 4.50.4.)
 
Slightly different(see attached), however, are 
my:
   a) equity plot Whereas your Title values are 
identical to the right-side labels, mine are not. ( I use what I believe to be 
the standard Equity Line code* that comes with Amibroker) 
   b) indicator plot (the numerical values in 
the Title are slightly lower than yours)
 
Can anyone think of anything that explains the 
differences?
 
thanks
 
-john
 
*Equity Line code:

//--equity-plot-- do not remove this line
MaxGraph=0<FONT 
size=1>;GraphXSpace=5<FONT 
size=1>;
GraphZOrder=1<FONT 
size=1>;
Plot( <FONT color=#0000ff 
size=1>Equity( <FONT color=#ff00ff 
size=1>0, -2<FONT 
size=1> ), "Equity", 
-8, styleArea 
);
/* now buy and hold simulation */
Short=Cover=0<FONT 
size=1>;
Buy=Status<FONT 
size=1>("firstbarintest"<FONT 
size=1>);
Sell=Status<FONT 
size=1>("lastbarintest"<FONT 
size=1>);
SetTradeDelays(<FONT color=#ff00ff 
size=1>0,0<FONT 
size=1>,0,<FONT 
color=#ff00ff size=1>0); PositionSize = -<FONT 
color=#ff00ff size=1>100;<FONT color=#0000ff 
size=1>
ApplyStop(0<FONT 
size=1>,0,<FONT 
color=#ff00ff size=1>0,<FONT color=#ff00ff 
size=1>0);
ApplyStop(1<FONT 
size=1>,0,<FONT 
color=#ff00ff size=1>0,<FONT color=#ff00ff 
size=1>0);
ApplyStop(2<FONT 
size=1>,0,<FONT 
color=#ff00ff size=1>0,<FONT color=#ff00ff 
size=1>0);
Plot( <FONT color=#0000ff 
size=1>Equity( <FONT color=#ff00ff 
size=1>0, -2<FONT 
size=1> ), "Buy&Hold", 
-9 );

<BLOCKQUOTE 
>
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  <DIV 
  >From: 
  Dimitris 
  Tsokakis 
  To: <A title=amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  Sent: Wednesday, December 17, 2003 5:17 
  AM
  Subject: [amibroker] Artificial 
  Intelligence, an introduction, ^N225 2003
  
  Yuki wrote at <A 
  href="">http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/message/54931
  <FONT face="Times New Roman" 
  size=2>"...There are a lot of people who missed the move this year, 
  and..."
  What could we do not to miss the move ? Here is the 
  elementary AI proposal:
   
  The first significant ^N225 trough was on Jan31, 2003 and 
  the very next significant peak was on Feb17.Suppose we follow this pattern 
  and then buy every x1 days after the first buy and sell every x2 days after 
  the first sell.By the end of the first 6 months we try to learn the rhythm 
  of the market and trade it for the next 6 months.The initial rhythm may 
  need corrections as the market changes, inspections every 15-20 days are 
  necessary.The results are interesting:There were 3 main rhythm 
  combinations [x1,x2], the [29,24] for 34 days, the [26,33] for the next 34 
  days and, finally, a potential combination [25,28] was detected around mid 
  September and it is valid untill now.Another important issue : The system 
  "understood" around mid July that x1 should be < x2. It means buys 
  should be more frequent than sells, a characteristic of bullish markets 
  [the more you delay a Sell, the more part of the bullish trend you 
  enjoy...]The black [29,24] equity line was a nice solution up to the end 
  of July, the white [26,33] up to the middle of August.The red [25,28] was 
  the most tenacious all year long.The trading parameters are
   
  
  
    
    
      Settings
  
    
    
       
    
      Initial Equity:
      10000
      
      Periodicity/Positions: 
      Daily/Long Short
    
      Commissions:
      0.50 %
      
      Annual interest rate:
      0.00%
    
      Range:
      30/5/2003 00:00:00 - 17/12/2003
      
      Apply to:
      Current Symbol
    
      Margin requirement:
      100
      
      Futures mode:
      No
    
      Def. round lot size:
      0
      
      Def. Tick Size
      0
    
      Drawdowns based on:
      Open prices
      
       
       
    
      Long trades
    
      Buy price:
      Open
      
      Sell price: 
      Open
    
      Buy delay:
      1
      
      Sell delay: 
      1
    
      Short trades
    
      Short price:
      Open
      
      Cover price: 
      Open
    
      Short delay:
      1
      
      Cover delay: 
      1
    
      Stops
    
      Maximum loss:
      disabled
      
      Profit target: 
      disabled
    
      Value:
      30.00
      
      Value: 
      20.00
    
      Exit at stop?
      yes
      
      Exit at stop? 
      no
    
       
    
      Trailing stop:
      disabled
      
        
       
    
      Value:
      5.00
      
        
       
    
      Exit at stop?
      no
      
        
       
  
  
    
    
      FormulaSYM="^N225";in=DateNum()>=1030530; 
STARTBUY=DateNum()==1030131; 
STARTSELL=DateNum()==1030217; 
startIP=DateNum()==1030530; 
x=17; 
// A Hi-pass filter 
EVENT=BarsSince(startIP)%x==0; 
k0=20;Plot(k0,"k0",Cum(1)%2,1);s0=60; 
shape=33+2*(Cum(event)%10); 
PlotShapes(shape*EVENT,colorRed); 
Plot(0,"",1,1);Plot(100,"",1,1);Slevel=80; 
G=0; 
for(BuyFREQ=10;BuyFREQ<40;BuyFREQ++) 
{ 
for(SellFREQ=10;SellFREQ<40;SellFREQ++) 
{ 
Buy=BarsSince(STARTBuy)%Buyfreq ==0;Sell=BarsSince(STARTSell)%Sellfreq==0;Short=Sell;Cover=Buy; 
Buy=ExRem(Buy,Sell);Sell=ExRem(Sell,Buy);Short=ExRem(Short,Cover);Cover=ExRem(Cover,Short); 
e1=Equity(1,0);E11=ValueWhen(EVENT,E1);G=IIf(G>E11,G,E11); 
}} 
BFpass=0;SFpass=0; 
for(BuyFREQ=10;BuyFREQ<40;BuyFREQ++) 
{ 
for(SellFREQ=10;SellFREQ<40;SellFREQ++) 
{ 
Buy=BarsSince(STARTBuy)%Buyfreq ==0;Sell=BarsSince(STARTSell)%Sellfreq==0;Short=Sell;Cover=Buy; 
Buy=ExRem(Buy,Sell);Sell=ExRem(Sell,Buy);Short=ExRem(Short,Cover);Cover=ExRem(Cover,Short); 
e1=Equity(1,0); 
E11=ValueWhen(EVENT,E1); 
BF1=IIf(E11==G,BuyFREQ,0);BFpass=BFpass+BF1; 
SF1=IIf(E11==G,SellFREQ,0);SFpass=SFpass+SF1; 
G=IIf(E11==G,0,G); 
}} 
 
Buy=BarsSince(STARTBuy)%bfpass ==0;Sell=BarsSince(STARTSell)%sfpass==0;Short=Sell;Cover=Buy; 
Buy=ExRem(Buy,Sell);Sell=ExRem(Sell,Buy);Short=ExRem(Short,Cover);Cover=ExRem(Cover,Short);

  
    
    
      Overall performance summary
    
       
    
      Total net profit:
      4079.56
       
      Total commissions paid:
      895.39
    
      Return on account:
      40.80 % 
       
      Open position gain/loss
      -34.86
    
      Buy&Hold profit:
      2121.88
       
      Bars (avg. days) in test:
      137 (201)
    
      Buy&Hold % return:
      21.22%
       
      System to Buy&Hold index:
      92.26%
    
       
    
      Annual system % return: 
      86.13%
       
      Annual B&H % return:
      41.83%
    
       
    
      System drawdown:
      -339.32
       
      B&H drawdown:
      0.00
    
      Max. system drawdown:
      -961.08
       
      B&H max. drawdown:
      -1793.58
    
      Max. system % drawdown:
      -8.11%
       
      B&H max. % drawdown:
      -13.39%
    
      Max. trade drawdown:
      -961.08
       
       
       
    
      Max. trade % drawdown:
      -8.11%
       
       
       
    
      Trade drawdown:
      -484.71
       
       
       
    
       
    
      Total number of trades:
      8
       
      Percent profitable:
      75.0%
    
      Number winning trades:
      6
       
      Number losing trades:
      2
    
      Profit of winners:
      4696.27
       
      Loss of losers:
      -719.72
    
      Total # of bars in winners:
      117
       
      Total # of bars in losers:
      15
    
      Commissions paid in winners:
      677.37
       
      Commissions paid in losers:
      218.01
    
       
    
      Largest winning trade:
      1390.45
       
      Largest losing trade:
      -380.40
    
      # of bars in largest winner:
      23
       
      # bars in largest loser:
      9
    
      Commission paid in largest winner:
      110.42
       
      Commission paid in largest loser:
      117.32
    
       
    
      Average winning trade:
      782.71
       
      Average losing trade:
      -359.86
    
      Avg. # of bars in winners:
      19.5
       
      Avg. # bars in losers:
      7.5
    
      Avg. commission paid in winner:
      112.90
       
      Avg. commission paid in loser:
      109.01
    
      Max consec. winners:
      3
       
      Max consec. losers:
      1
    
       
    
      Bars out of the market:
      2
       
      Interest earned:
      0.00
    
       
    
      Exposure:
      98.5%
       
      Risk adjusted ann. return:
      87.41%
    
      Ratio avg win/avg loss:
      2.18
       
      Avg. trade (win & loss):
      497.07
    
      Profit factor:
      6.53
       
      
      
  
  
  
    
    
      Performance for ^N225 
    
       
    
      Total net profit:
      4079.56
       
      Total commissions paid:
      895.39
    
      Return on account:
      40.80 % 
       
      Open position gain/loss
      -34.86
    
      Buy&Hold profit:
      2121.88
       
      Bars (days) in test:
      137 (201)
    
      Buy&Hold % return:
      21.22%
       
      System to Buy&Hold index:
      92.26%
    
       
    
      Annual system % return: 
      86.13%
       
      Annual B&H % return:
      41.83%
    
       
    
      System drawdown:
      -339.32
       
      B&H drawdown:
      0.00
    
      Max. system drawdown:
      -961.08
       
      B&H max. drawdown:
      -1793.58
    
      Max. system % drawdown:
      -8.11%
       
      B&H max. % drawdown:
      -13.39%
    
      Max. trade drawdown:
      -961.08
       
       
       
    
      Max. trade % drawdown:
      -8.11%
       
       
       
    
      Trade drawdown:
      -484.71
       
       
       
    
       
    
      Total number of trades:
      8
       
      Percent profitable:
      75.0%
    
      Number winning trades:
      6
       
      Number losing trades:
      2
    
      Profit of winners:
      4696.27
       
      Loss of losers:
      -719.72
    
      Total # of bars in winners:
      117
       
      Total # of bars in losers:
      15
    
      Commissions paid in winners:
      677.37
       
      Commissions paid in losers:
      218.01
    
       
    
      Largest winning trade:
      1390.45
       
      Largest losing trade:
      -380.40
    
      # of bars in largest winner:
      23
       
      # bars in largest loser:
      9
    
      Commission paid in largest winner:
      110.42
       
      Commission paid in largest loser:
      117.32
    
       
    
      Average winning trade:
      782.71
       
      Average losing trade:
      -359.86
    
      Avg. # of bars in winners:
      19.5
       
      Avg. # bars in losers:
      7.5
    
      Avg. commission paid in winner:
      112.90
       
      Avg. commission paid in loser:
      109.01
    
      Max consec. winners:
      3
       
      Max consec. losers:
      1
    
       
    
      Bars out of the market:
      2
       
      Interest earned:
      0.00
    
       
    
      Exposure:
      98.5%
       
      Risk adjusted ann. return:
      87.41%
    
      Ratio avg win/avg loss:
      2.18
       
      Avg. trade (win & loss):
      497.07
    
      Profit factor:
      6.53
   
   
  For Indicator builder see the timing coefficients variations 
  and the more important equity lines with the code
   
   
  // ^N225 timing for 
  2003STARTBUY=DateNum()==1030131;// first 
  troughSTARTSELL=DateNum()==1030217;// first 
  peakstartIP=DateNum()==1030530;// inspections and trading 
  startx=17;// The Hi-pass 
  filterEVENT=BarsSince(startIP)%x==0;k0=10;Plot(k0,"k0",Cum(1)%2,1);s0=60;shape=33+2*(Cum(event)%10);PlotShapes(shape*EVENT,colorIndigo);Plot(0,"",1,1);Plot(50,"",1,1);G=0;for(BuyFREQ=10;BuyFREQ<40;BuyFREQ++){for(SellFREQ=10;SellFREQ<40;SellFREQ++){Buy=BarsSince(STARTBuy)%Buyfreq 
  ==0;Sell=BarsSince(STARTSell)%Sellfreq==0;Short=Sell;Cover=Buy;Buy=ExRem(Buy,Sell);Sell=ExRem(Sell,Buy);Short=ExRem(Short,Cover);Cover=ExRem(Cover,Short);e1=Equity(1,0);E11=ValueWhen(EVENT,E1);G=IIf(G>E11,G,E11);}}BFpass=0;SFpass=0;for(BuyFREQ=10;BuyFREQ<40;BuyFREQ++){for(SellFREQ=10;SellFREQ<40;SellFREQ++){Buy=BarsSince(STARTBuy)%Buyfreq 
  ==0;Sell=BarsSince(STARTSell)%Sellfreq==0;Short=Sell;Cover=Buy;Buy=ExRem(Buy,Sell);Sell=ExRem(Sell,Buy);Short=ExRem(Short,Cover);Cover=ExRem(Cover,Short);e1=Equity(1,0);E11=ValueWhen(EVENT,E1);BF1=IIf(E11==G,BuyFREQ,0);BFpass=BFpass+BF1;SF1=IIf(E11==G,SellFREQ,0);SFpass=SFpass+SF1;G=IIf(E11==G,0,G);}}Plot(BFPASS,"\nBFpass",colorBlack,8);Plot(SFPASS,"SFpass",colorBlue,8);
  // the 3 main equity lines
  BuyFREQ=29;SellFREQ=24;Buy=BarsSince(STARTBuy)%Buyfreq 
  ==0;Sell=BarsSince(STARTSell)%Sellfreq==0;Short=Sell;Cover=Buy;Buy=ExRem(Buy,Sell);Sell=ExRem(Sell,Buy);Short=ExRem(Short,Cover);Cover=ExRem(Cover,Short);e1=Equity(1,0);Plot(E1,"["+WriteVal(Buyfreq,1.0)+","+WriteVal(Sellfreq,1.0)+"]",colorblack,8+styleLeftAxisScale);<FONT 
  size=2>
  BuyFREQ=26;SellFREQ=33;Buy=BarsSince(STARTBuy)%Buyfreq 
  ==0;Sell=BarsSince(STARTSell)%Sellfreq==0;Short=Sell;Cover=Buy;Buy=ExRem(Buy,Sell);Sell=ExRem(Sell,Buy);Short=ExRem(Short,Cover);Cover=ExRem(Cover,Short);e1=Equity(1,0);Plot(E1,"["+WriteVal(Buyfreq,1.0)+","+WriteVal(Sellfreq,1.0)+"]",colorwhite,8+styleLeftAxisScale);
  BuyFREQ=25;SellFREQ=28;Buy=BarsSince(STARTBuy)%Buyfreq 
  ==0;Sell=BarsSince(STARTSell)%Sellfreq==0;Short=Sell;Cover=Buy;Buy=ExRem(Buy,Sell);Sell=ExRem(Sell,Buy);Short=ExRem(Short,Cover);Cover=ExRem(Cover,Short);e1=Equity(1,0);Plot(E1,"["+WriteVal(Buyfreq,1.0)+","+WriteVal(Sellfreq,1.0)+"]",colorred,8+styleLeftAxisScale);
   
  Dimitris TsokakisSend BUG REPORTS 
  to bugs@xxxxxxxxxxxxxSend SUGGESTIONS to 
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