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Hi Dimitris,
You are interesting, as always. ^^_^^
For me, volume does not support H&S characterization here at all. But
that's just my take on it. (I also would have big trouble
envisioning two opposite facing H&Ss adjacent to each other; it just
doesn't work like that in my experience.)
Basically, volume is still drying up right now. On 12/3 and 12/4
there were volume spikes, but those spikes had nothing to do with the
market in general; they exist on the chart only because a failed bank
started doing 30 or 40 percent of the entire Nikkei volume for a
couple of days and more, trading at less than 20 cents a share. Then
on 12/12 there was another spike, but there is a spike every 3 months
on the second Friday of the month -- options and futures expiration,
called SQ (special quotation) here in Tokyo.
Pretty good resistance has now developed in the 10,425 to 10,550
range. Clear that on a closing basis for a couple of days in a row,
and we could be off to the races again. But I don't think that is
going to be easy in the near term at all. To my eyes, everything
seems to be pointing straight sideways, with a slightly negative
bent.
Also, the New Year holidays in Tokyo are a bit longer than in the
West. We will have a two-hour morning-only session on Monday the
29th, and then we are frozen until January 5. That's a long time,
almost a full week, to be exposed and have no escape in today's
world, with everything that is going on. I think there is going to be
some reluctance to initiate much new either way between now and
January. I'm sure reluctant to trade right now, even very short
term.
I still look at the beautiful flag formed on the 2nd through the 5th,
a flag I was waiting on, but it failed, and failed miserably. Now
another rally right back there, and it has clearly failed right at
the same place. Resistance is building.
Stands to reason we could still be quite volatile in this range for a
while. There are a lot of people who missed the move this year, and
they think there is more to come, and they keep buying these little
pseudo dips. But I'm seeing distribution every time it rallies.
You may read in the media today that today's decline was because of a
SARs case in Taiwan announced during the lunch break. BS. We were
down hard before lunch, and the big news today was net selling by
foreigners before the bell, despite the US rally, and a big reduction
in overweight recommendations for Japan by CSFB. Also, exporter
estimates of the dollar/yen rate for the second half of the year are
beginning to look more and more like opium dreams. If so, some
profit projections of *major* Japanese corporations are going to also
be dreams. Our fiscal year ends 3/31/04 -- not all that far away. If
there is a surprise coming around here, it could be first to the
downside. I'm waiting and hoping.
Yuki
Wednesday, December 17, 2003, 5:34:11 PM, you wrote:
DT> After the recent [semi-successful] H S we have an inverted H S
DT> already formatted.
DT> We have had a neckline bulish breakout on Dec15, but it was
DT> the peculiar day of the geopolitical tricks.
DT> The invH S target line is now at 11,456.7 and looses 16.7
DT> per bar.
DT> In 12 bars it will point 11,290.
DT> Should we expect a Nikkei new high soon ???
DT> Dimitris Tsokakis
DT>
DT> PS. For recent and older H S formations use
DT> the
DT>
DT> // Historical H S formations
DT> x = Cum(1);
DT> per = 3;// sensitivity calibration
DT> Plot(Zig(H,per),"",colorBlue,1);
DT> back=100;
DT> inter=200;
DT> s11=H;s12=L;R=0;RR=0;
DT> /*
DT> H S */
DT> pR = PeakBars( s11, per, 1 ) == 0;
DT> endt1=
DT> SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, R+1 ));
DT> medt1=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pR, x,
DT> R+2));
DT> startt1=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, R+3
DT> ));
DT> dt1=endt1-startt1;
DT> C1=x==endt1 OR x==medt1 OR x==startt1;
DT> endR =
DT> SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pR, s11, R+1 ) );
DT> medR=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pR,
DT> s11, R+2 ) );
DT> startR = SelectedValue( ValueWhen( pR, s11, R+3
DT> ));
DT> Filter1=medR>endR AND medR>startR AND
DT> abs(startR-endR)<0.02*(startR+endR) AND
DT> dt1<inter AND
endt1>>SelectedValue(x)-back;
DT> MaxGraph=12;Graph1=C;Graph1Style=64;GraphXSpace=1;
DT> /*H S
DT> Neck Line*/
DT> Aper=medt1-startt1;bper=endt1-medt1;
DT> La=
DT> SelectedValue(ValueWhen(x==medt1,LLV(L,Aper)));
DT> Lb=SelectedValue(ValueWhen(x==-1+endt1,LLV(L,bper)));
DT> Fa=L==La
AND x>>startt1 AND x<medt1;
DT> Fb=L==Lb AND x>medt1 AND
DT> x<endt1;
DT> endt= SelectedValue(ValueWhen( Fb, x
DT> ));
DT> startt=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( Fa, x ));
DT> dtS =endt-startt;endS =
DT> Lb;startS = La;
DT> aS = (endS-startS)/dtS;bS = endS;
DT> trendlineS = aS * (
DT> x -endt ) + bS;
DT> Graph3 = IIf(Filter1 AND x>startt-5 AND
DT> x<endt+back,trendlineS,-1e10);Graph3BarColor=7;
DT> /*Inverted H
DT> S*/
DT> tpR = TroughBars( s12, per, 1 ) ==
DT> 0;
DT> tendt1=SelectedValue(ValueWhen(tpr,x,RR+1));
DT> tmedt1=SelectedValue(ValueWhen(tpr,x,RR+2));
DT> tstartt1=SelectedValue(ValueWhen(tpr,x,RR+3));
DT> tdt1=tendt1-tstartt1;
DT> C2=x==tendt1
DT> OR x==tmedt1 OR x==tstartt1;
DT> tendR = SelectedValue(ValueWhen( tpR, s12, RR+1
DT> ) );
DT> tmedR=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( tpR, s12, RR+2 ) );
DT> tstartR =
DT> SelectedValue( ValueWhen( tpR, s12, RR+3 ));
DT> Filter2=tmedR<tendR AND
DT> tmedR<tstartR AND
DT> abs(tstartR-tendR)<0.02*(tstartR+tendR) AND
DT> tdt1<inter AND
tendt1>>SelectedValue(x)-back;
DT> /*Inverted H S Neck
DT> Line*/
DT> tAper=tmedt1-tstartt1;tbper=tendt1-tmedt1;
DT> Ha=
DT> SelectedValue(ValueWhen(x==tmedt1,HHV(H,tAper)));
DT> Hb=SelectedValue(ValueWhen(x==-1+tendt1,HHV(H,tbper)));
DT> tFa=H==Ha
AND x>>tstartt1 AND x<tmedt1;
DT> tFb=H==Hb AND x>tmedt1 AND
DT> x<tendt1;
DT> Rendt= SelectedValue(ValueWhen(tFb, x
DT> ));
DT> Rstartt=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( tFa, x ));
DT> Rdt =Rendt-Rstartt;endR =
DT> Hb;startR = Ha;
DT> aR = (endR-startR)/Rdt;bR = endR;
DT> trendlineR = aR * (
DT> x -Rendt ) + bR;
DT> Graph4 = IIf(Filter2 AND x>Rstartt-5 AND
DT> x<Rendt+back,trendlineR,-1e10);Graph4BarColor=10;
DT> upcr=filter2 AND
DT> Cross(C,trendlineR) AND x>tendt1;
DT> dncr=filter1 AND Cross(trendlineS,C) AND
x>>endt1;
DT> /*H S
DT> target*/
DT> diff1=ValueWhen(x==medt1,C-trendlineS);
DT> target1=trendlineS-diff1;
DT> target1cross=Cross(target1,C)
DT> AND Filter1;
DT> Graph5=IIf(filter1 AND x>endt1 AND
DT> x<endt1+back,target1,-1e10);
DT> Graph5Style=8;Graph5BarColor=7;
DT> /*Inverted
DT> H S
DT> target*/
DT> diff2=ValueWhen(x==tmedt1,trendlineR-C);
DT> target2=trendlineR+diff2;
DT> target2cross=Cross(C,target2)
DT> AND Filter2;
DT> Graph6=IIf(Filter2 AND x>tendt1 AND
DT> x<tendt1+back,target2,-1e10);Graph6Style=8;Graph6BarColor=10;
DT> Graph1BarColor=IIf(C1
DT> AND Filter1,7,IIf(C2 AND Filter2,10,IIf(upcr OR target2cross,5,IIf(dncr OR
DT> target1cross,4,1))));
DT> GraphXSpace=5;
DT>
DT> Move the cursor to previous bars to see the historical
DT> H S, breakouts, necklines and targets, successful or
DT> not.
DT> Send BUG REPORTS to bugs@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
DT> Send SUGGESTIONS to suggest@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
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Best,
Yuki
Send BUG REPORTS to bugs@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Send SUGGESTIONS to suggest@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
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