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[amibroker] Re: PositionScore Ideas



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Phsst,

Are you running your backtest against all the stocks that
you think are considered when they calculate QRS? That could
be a deciding factor, I'd think. Any other filter for
turnover, price, etc. that you might have, and your results
are likely to be at least a bit different...

Jitu

--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Phsst" <phsst@xxxx> wrote:
> Gary,
> 
> I do code as much of the GUI stuff as I can into the afl. It never
> occured to me that coding SetOption("AllowPositionShrinking",True)
> would skew some of the Report Stats in such a manner.
> 
> The new backtest results based upon PositionScore are as follows:
> 
> QRS      Risk Adjusted Return 156.31% Sharpe Ratio 1.53
> QRSRAW   Risk Adjusted Return 134.72% Sharpe Ratio 1.38
> RSW      Risk Adjusted Return 105.27% Sharpe Ratio 1.15
> 
> You decide about the Gov't work stuff. (Truth is that I'd really 
like
> to see a formula that is equal to or BETTER than QRS since I don't
> like 'black box' values)
> 
> I COPY/PASTED YOUR CODE FOR QRSRAW Calc:
> 
> QRSRAW = ( (C / Ref(C,-62)) * 0.4 ) + ( (Ref(C,-63) / Ref(C,-125)) *
> 0.2 ) + ( (Ref(C,-126) / Ref(C,-188)) * 0.2 ) + ( (Ref(C,-189) /
> Ref(C,-251)) * 0.2 );
> 
> Regards,
> 
> Phsst
> 
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Gary A. Serkhoshian"
> <serkhoshian777@xxxx> wrote:
> > Hi Phsst,
> >  
> > Thanks for bringing closure to this.  FWIW, I always code 
everything
> I can off the GUI into the afl I'm using for this reason.  Here's 
what
> I've been using.  BTW, what did you find related to QRSRAW vs QRS in
> QP2?  Close enough for government work?
> >  
> > Regards,
> > Gary
> >  
> > 
> > //Set Initial Equity, Roundlot Size, Trade Settings
> > 
> > STARTEQ = Optimize("Starting Equity",100000,25000,1000000,25000);
> > 
> > SetOption("InitialEquity", STARTEQ);
> > 
> > SetOption("MinShares",1); //1 for Funds, 100 for Stocks
> > 
> > RoundLotSize = 0; //0 for Funds, 100 for Stocks
> > 
> > SetTradeDelays(1,1,1,1); //Buy, Sell, Short, Cover delays
> > 
> > BuyPrice = C; SellPrice = C;
> > 
> > ShortPrice = C; CoverPrice = C;
> > 
> > 
> > Phsst <phsst@xxxx> wrote:
> > FWIW...
> > 
> > I just had a short exchange with TJ and either of two actions will
> > prevent this situation on backtests. 
> > 
> > Either:
> > 
> >       SetOption("AllowPositionShrinking",False);
> > or
> >       You can also increase "MinShares" setting ...
> > 
> > Thanks for clearing this up Tomasz.
> > 
> > Phsst
> > 
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Tomasz Janeczko" 
<amibroker@xxxx>
> > wrote:
> > > Hello,
> > > 
> > > I have found the reason why your report shows positive avg 
dollar
> > profit while showing negative avg PERCENT profit.
> > >  
> > > Reason is that you are using fixed $30 commissions per trade and
> > this causes
> > > that certain trades of that have small position value loose a 
lot
> > (in percent).
> > > 
> > > This influences average PERCENT gain/loss since it is 
calculated as
> > AVERAGE of PERCENT profit/loss
> > > per trade, so this average becomes negative. 
> > > 
> > > See the few top trades from your trade list. Take a look at two
> > trades IBM and PDG.
> > > They are all very small (20 and 6 shares respectively) so fixed 
$30
> > commission each way generates loss
> > > of -14.17% and -39.20% respectively.
> > > 
> > > Now calculating AVERAGE PERCENT p/l is summing % p/l of 
individual
> > trades and dividing them by the number of
> > > trades leads to NEGATIVE percent p/l EVEN though system EARNED 
money.
> > > 
> > > This is so because big percent looses happen only on VERY SMALL
> > trades (trades that have very small dollar value).
> > > Thus big percent looses in such small trades do not really 
affect
> > profit of entire portfolio.
> > > 
> > > 
> > >       Ticker Trade Entry  Exit  Change Profit Profit % Shares 
Pos
> > value Cum Profit # bars Profit/bar MAE/MFE 
> > >       SMTC Long 1995-06-01 2,03125 1995-06-02 2,07813 2,31% 
401,53
> > 2,01% 9846 19999,69 401,53 2 200,77 0,00% 6,15% 
> > >       VRTS Long 1995-06-01 1,28395 1995-06-02 1,25103 -2,56% -
572,5
> > -2,86% 15567 19987,26 -170,96 2 -286,25 -2,56% 0,00% 
> > >       COMS Long 1995-06-01 6,67969 1995-06-02 6,8099 1,95% 
329,32
> > 1,65% 2990 19972,26 158,36 2 164,66 -0,39% 3,70% 
> > >       INTC Long 1995-06-01 7,03125 1995-06-02 7,08594 0,78% 
95,26
> > 0,48% 2839 19961,72 253,62 2 47,63 -0,11% 2,89% 
> > >       CDWC Long 1995-06-01 6,5 1995-06-02 6,625 1,92% 323,25 
1,62%
> > 3066 19929,00 576,87 2 161,63 -2,56% 1,92% 
> > >       EMC Long 1995-06-02 2,90625 1995-06-05 2,98438 2,69% 480,7
> > 2,39% 6921 20114,16 1057,57 2 240,35 -2,15% 2,69% 
> > >       ORCL Long 1995-06-02 2,62963 1995-06-05 2,74074 4,23% 
788,89
> > 3,93% 7640 20090,37 1846,46 2 394,44 -2,82% 4,23% 
> > >       AIG Long 1995-06-02 17,9358 1995-06-05 18,4494 2,86% 514,7
> > 2,56% 1119 20070,16 2361,16 2 257,35 -0,11% 3,30% 
> > >       VLO Long 1995-06-02 14,406 1995-06-05 14,4898 0,58% 56,59
> > 0,28% 1392 20053,15 2417,75 2 28,29 -0,58% 0,58% 
> > >       MBG Long 1995-06-05 34 1995-06-06 33,75 -0,74% -210,25 -
1,03%
> > 601 20434,00 2207,5 2 -105,13 -0,74% 0,37% 
> > >       STJ Long 1995-06-05 14,75 1995-06-06 14,75 0,00% -60 -
0,29%
> > 1385 20428,75 2147,5 2 -30 -0,85% 0,56% 
> > >       FHCC Long 1995-06-05 7,875 1995-06-06 7,96875 1,19% 183 
0,90%
> > 2592 20412,00 2330,5 2 91,5 0,00% 3,17% 
> > >       BDX Long 1995-06-05 14,5313 1995-06-07 14,2813 -1,72% -411
> > -2,01% 1404 20401,88 1919,5 3 -137 -1,72% 0,00% 
> > >       IBM Long 1995-06-05 22,9375 1995-06-07 22,6875 -1,09% -65
> > -14,17% 20 458,75 1854,5 3 -21,67 -1,91% 1,91% 
> > >       EMC Long 1995-06-06 2,9375 1995-06-07 2,90625 -1,06% -
276,47
> > -1,36% 6927 20348,06 1578,03 2 -138,23 -1,06% 1,60% 
> > >       IACI Long 1995-06-06 3,4375 1995-06-07 3,5 1,82% 309,75 
1,52%
> > 5916 20336,25 1887,78 2 154,88 0,00% 5,45% 
> > >       SDS Long 1995-06-06 6,03125 1995-06-07 6,0625 0,52% 45,28
> > 0,22% 3369 20319,28 1933,06 2 22,64 0,00% 2,07% 
> > >       PDG Long 1995-06-06 24,875 1995-06-08 25,125 1,01% -58,5
> > -39,20% 6 149,25 1874,56 3 -19,5 -1,51% 2,01% 
> > >       GG Long 1995-06-07 2,90625 1995-06-08 2,90625 0,00% -60 -
0,30%
> > 6997 20335,03 1814,56 2 -30 -1,08% 0,00% 
> > >       GDW Long 1995-06-07 16,0417 1995-06-08 16,125 0,52% 45,5 
0,22%
> > 1266 20308,75 1860,06 2 22,75 -0,52% 1,30% 
> > >            Avg profit: Avg % profit:       
> > >            +93,0025 -2,17%        
> > > 
> > > Hope this helps.
> > > 
> > > Best regards,
> > > Tomasz Janeczko
> > > amibroker.com
> > > ----- Original Message ----- 
> > > From: "Phsst" <phsst@xxxx>
> > > To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Monday, December 15, 2003 4:58 AM
> > > Subject: [amibroker] Re: PositionScore Ideas
> > > 
> > > 
> > > Chuck,
> > > 
> > > FWIW, I exported the trade list from the backtest I posted, and 
then
> > > processed the trades with my own reporting program that I used 
prior
> > > to introduction of Portfolio trading in AB.
> > > 
> > > The reported Net Profit I posted matched. As did the calculated 
Risk
> > > Adj RAR. So the other figures that you found issues with are in
> > > question (I did not calc those figures in my own program).
> > > 
> > > I've heard from TJ... apprised him of the figures you pointed 
out, and
> > > at his request sent everything related to the backtest to him 
for
> > > analysis.
> > > 
> > > We will see.
> > > 
> > > Phsst 
> > > 
> > > 
> > > 
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Phsst" <phsst@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > Greg, Chuck & Gary,
> > > > 
> > > > No 'bother' Greg. 
> > > > 
> > > > And thanks to Chuck for his hints regarding applying recent 
negative
> > > > pullbacks. 
> > > > 
> > > > I haven't heard back from TJ yet concerning the reporting 
issues
> of my
> > > > backtest.
> > > > 
> > > > Tonight I'll export the trades to XL and at least verify that 
Net
> > > > Profit calcs were or were not correct. Also, I have my own 
program
> > > > that than take that data and verify Risk Adj RAR.
> > > > 
> > > > And finally, I'll take a look at the QRSRaw calc that Gary 
posted to
> > > > see if it approximates the QRS rank.
> > > > 
> > > > Phsst
> > > > 
> > > > 
> > > > 
> > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Chuck Rademacher"
> > > > <chuck_rademacher@x> wrote:
> > > > > Greg,
> > > > > 
> > > > > FWIW, I don't think you want to do this (below).    I don't
> see how
> > > > you can
> > > > > compare absolute dollar returns for different stocks.   I'm 
sure
> > > > that you
> > > > > will want to divide rather than subtract.
> > > > > 
> > > > > Also, see postings by Phsst regarding the results below.   
They
> > > are very
> > > > > suspect for lots of reasons.   You can't have a positive CAR
> with a
> > > > negative
> > > > > average return per trade.
> > > > > 
> > > > > I'll also let you in on a big secret!    I can't provide 
the exact
> > > code
> > > > > (sorry), but I think you will find that negatively applying 
the
> > > > return for
> > > > > the last few days (weeks?) to this formula will dramatically
> help a
> > > > > short-term system.   In other words, add up the returns like
> you are
> > > > already
> > > > > doing and then subtract the returns for the most recent 
period.  
> > > > This helps
> > > > > to buy stocks that have been rising but are experiencing a
> > pull-back.
> > > > > 
> > > > > I am trading one fund using this technique and it has been 
working
> > > very
> > > > > well.   I'm aware of two other hedge funds that have been 
trading
> > > > this way
> > > > > for more than 15 years and the performance of each has been
> stellar!
> > > > >   -----Original Message-----
> > > > >   From: Greg [mailto:gregbean@x...]
> > > > >   Sent: Sunday, December 14, 2003 3:06 PM
> > > > >   To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > >   Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: PositionScore Ideas
> > > > > 
> > > > > 
> > > > >   Phsst,
> > > > > 
> > > > >   The return doesn't look so good for RSW. Could you please 
try
> > > > comparison
> > > > > using the following formula instead . I'm not sure that the
> original
> > > > formula
> > > > > I provided should have been as a percent. Maybe it makes a
> > > difference ??
> > > > > 
> > > > >   // RSWraw = .4*(Total Return 13-Week)+.3*(Total Return
> > > > 26-Week)+.3*(Total
> > > > >   Return 1-Year)
> > > > >   tr13 = 0.4 * (C - Ref(C, -65));
> > > > >   tr26 = 0.3 * (C - Ref(C, -130));
> > > > >   tr52 = 0.3 * (C - Ref(C, -260));
> > > > >   RSWraw = tr13 + tr26 + tr52;
> > > > >   PositionScore = RSWraw;
> > > > > 
> > > > >   Sorry to bother you again.
> > > > > 
> > > > >   Greg
> > > > > 
> > > > > 
> > > > > 
> > > > > 
> > > > >     ----- Original Message -----
> > > > >     From: Phsst
> > > > >     To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > >     Sent: Saturday, December 13, 2003 6:30 PM
> > > > >     Subject: [amibroker] Re: PositionScore Ideas
> > > > > 
> > > > > 
> > > > >     Greg,
> > > > > 
> > > > >     This backtest comparison is for illustrative purposes 
only. I
> > > > make no
> > > > >     claims regarding these test results other than the AFL 
and
> Setup
> > > > >     criteria was identical for both tests. The only 
difference
> > was the
> > > > >     assignment of PositionScore = QRS versus PositionScore 
= RSW.
> > > > > 
> > > > >     NOTE:
> > > > > 
> > > > >     // RSW = .4*(Total Return 13-Week)+.3*(Total Return
> > > > 26-Week)+.3*(Total
> > > > >     Return 1-Year)
> > > > >     tr13 = 0.4 * (C - Ref(C, -65)) / Ref(C, -65) * 100;
> > > > >     tr26 = 0.3 * (C - Ref(C, -130)) / Ref(C, -130) * 100;
> > > > >     tr52 = 0.3 * (C - Ref(C, -260)) / Ref(C, -260) * 100;
> > > > >     RSW = tr13 + tr26 + tr52;
> > > > >     PositionScore = RSW;
> > > > > 
> > > > >     Date Range 6/1/1995 to Present (No QRS scores exist 
prior to
> > this)
> > > > > 
> > > > >     Direct comparison:
> > > > > 
> > > > >           RSW SCORE            QRS SCORE
> > > > >           Long trades            Long trades
> > > > >     Initial capital      100000            100000
> > > > >     Ending capital      22984180      190338380
> > > > >     Net Profit      22884180      190238380
> > > > >     Net Profit %      22884.18%      190238.38%
> > > > >     Exposure %      94.25%            94.16%
> > > > >     Net RAR %      24280.98%      202035.63%
> > > > >     Annual Return %      89.07%              142.19%
> > > > >     Risk Adj Retn %      94.50%            151.01%
> > > > > 
> > > > >     All trades      7431 (100.00 %)      7487 (100.00 %)
> > > > >     Avg. Profit/Loss      3079.56 25409.16
> > > > >     Avg. Profit/Loss %      -4.16%      -2.88%
> > > > >     Avg. Bars Held               2.65      2.63
> > > > > 
> > > > >     Winners               3829 (51.53 %)      4066 (54.31 %)
> > > > >     Total Profit      64437022.92      436648089.7
> > > > >     Avg. Profit      16828.68      107390.09
> > > > >     Avg. Profit %      3.10%            3.13%
> > > > >     Avg. Bars Held      2.33            2.33
> > > > >     Max. Consecutive      17      17
> > > > >     Largest win      978262.15      7798920.06
> > > > >     # bars in largest win      2      2
> > > > > 
> > > > >     Losers      3602 (48.47 %)            3421 (45.69 %)
> > > > >     Total Loss      -41552842.92      -246409709.4
> > > > >     Avg. Loss      -11536.05      -72028.56
> > > > >     Avg. Loss %      -11.88%            -10.03%
> > > > >     Avg. Bars Held      2.98            2.99
> > > > >     Max. Consecutive      13      12
> > > > >     Largest loss      -542767            -4301835.5
> > > > >     # bars in largest loss      6      6
> > > > > 
> > > > >     Max. trade drawdown      -610851.92      -4864832.72
> > > > >     Max. trade % drawdown      -98.69%            -99.67%
> > > > >     Max. system drawdown      -2119041.36      -15587244.83
> > > > >     Max. system % drawdown      -34.68%            -27.63%
> > > > >     Recovery Factor      10.8            12.2
> > > > >     CAR/MaxDD      2.57            5.15
> > > > >     RAR/MaxDD      2.72            5.46
> > > > >     Profit Factor      1.55            1.77
> > > > >     Payoff Ratio      1.46            1.49
> > > > >     Standard Error      2982472.3      25676798.01
> > > > >     Risk-Reward Ratio      0.44      0.38
> > > > >     Ulcer Index      12.1            7.64
> > > > >     Ulcer Performance Index      6.92      17.9
> > > > >     Sharpe Ratio of trades      -0.72      -0.86
> > > > >     K-Ratio                       1.09      0.93
> > > > > 
> > > > >     FWIW, I have some other systems / variations that I'll 
run a
> > > RSW vs.
> > > > >     QRS comparison on. If there are any notable 
improvements to
> > > the RSW
> > > > >     results, I'll post them.
> > > > > 
> > > > >     Regards,
> > > > > 
> > > > >     Phsst
> > > > > 
> > > > >     --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Greg" <gregbean@xxxx>
> wrote:
> > > > >     > Phsst,
> > > > >     >
> > > > >     > Yes I think it is (Total Return 13-Week) means (Pct 
Price
> > > gain in
> > > > >     > 13-Weeks). The terms are from ValueLine, I think.
> > > > >     > http://www.valueline.com/
> > > > >     >
> > > > >     > IBD definition of Relative Strength:
> > > > >     >
> > > > >     >  Relative Price Strength (RS) Rating or Relative
> > > StrengthThis IBD
> > > > >     SmartSelect® Corporate Rating measures each stock's 
price
> > > > performance
> > > > >     over the latest twelve months compared to all other
> stocks. The
> > > > rating
> > > > >     scale ranges from 1 (lowest) to 99 (highest). Stocks 
rating
> > > below 70
> > > > >     indicate weaker or more laggard relative price 
performance.
> > > > >     > http://www.investors.com/
> > > > >     >
> > > > >     >
> > > > >     > Greg
> > > > >     >
> > > > >     >   ----- Original Message -----
> > > > >     >   From: Phsst
> > > > >     >   To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > >     >   Sent: Saturday, December 13, 2003 4:52 PM
> > > > >     >   Subject: [amibroker] Re: PositionScore Ideas
> > > > >     >
> > > > >     >
> > > > >     >   Greg,
> > > > >     >
> > > > >     >   I'll be happy to do a comparison on just about
> anything that
> > > > might
> > > > > be
> > > > >     >   comparable to IDB's RS Rank.
> > > > >     >
> > > > >     >   I assume that (Total Return 13-Week) means (Pct 
Price
> > gain in
> > > > >     >   13-Weeks), and so on?
> > > > >     >
> > > > >     >   Worth noting here, that IDB's RS Rank is a score 
between 1
> > > > and 100
> > > > >     >   that ranks each particular stock against the whole 
mkt
> > for the
> > > > >     past year.
> > > > >     >
> > > > >     >   But for positionscore pusposes, we are not limited 
to a
> > > > score of 1 -
> > > > >     >   100, so I can do the raw comparison of results from 
your
> > > formula
> > > > >     to QRS.
> > > > >     >
> > > > >     >   I'll post back later under this same Subject.
> > > > >     >
> > > > >     >   Regards
> > > > >     >
> > > > >     >   Phsst
> > > > >     >
> > > > >     >
> > > > >     >   --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Greg" 
<gregbean@xxxx>
> > > wrote:
> > > > >     >   > Hi Phsst.
> > > > >     >   >
> > > > >     >   > Here is a formula that I have been told closely 
follows
> > > > that of
> > > > > IBD.
> > > > >     >   Could you please do the comparison you offered ?
> > > > >     >   >
> > > > >     >   > RSW = .4*(Total Return 13-Week)+.3*(Total Return
> > > > > 26-Week)+.3*(Total
> > > > >     >   Return 1-Year)
> > > > >     >   >
> > > > >     >   > Thanks,
> > > > >     >   > Greg
> > > > >     >   >   ----- Original Message -----
> > > > >     >   >   From: Phsst
> > > > >     >   >   To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > >     >   >   Sent: Saturday, December 13, 2003 1:26 PM
> > > > >     >   >   Subject: [amibroker] Re: PositionScore Ideas
> > > > >     >   >
> > > > >     >   >
> > > > >     >   >   Al,
> > > > >     >   >
> > > > >     >   >   My favorite is the QP2 QRS value (GetExtraData
("QRS").
> > > > The QP2
> > > > > QRS
> > > > >     >   >   value is supposed to be a 'knockoff' of the IBD 
RS
> > ranking
> > > > > score.
> > > > >     >   >
> > > > >     >   >   I almost always get a significant boost using 
this
> > ranking
> > > > >     figure as
> > > > >     >   >   as the positionscore.
> > > > >     >   >
> > > > >     >   >   If you do not have QP2, but have any ideas 
about how
> > to do
> > > > >     your own RS
> > > > >     >   >   Rank calculation, I'd be happy to run some 
comparisons
> > > > for you
> > > > > (or
> > > > >     >   >   anyone else) to measure your calculated RS Rank
> against
> > > > QP2's
> > > > > QRS
> > > > >     >   rank.
> > > > >     >   >
> > > > >     >   >   Cheers,
> > > > >     >   >
> > > > >     >   >   Phsst
> > > > >     >   >   --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Al Venosa"
> > > > <advenosa@xxxx>
> > > > >     wrote:
> > > > >     >   >   > Hi, all:
> > > > >     >   >   >
> > > > >     >   >   > I've been experimenting with variuos short 
term
> > trading
> > > > > systems
> > > > >     >   >   lately (average trade durations of about 2.5
> days), and
> > > > I was
> > > > >     looking
> > > > >     >   >   for ideas on how best to rank a watchlist to 
get the
> > best
> > > > >     candidates
> > > > >     >   >   for portfolio trading a basket of 4 stocks. I 
was
> > > > wondering if
> > > > >     anyone
> > > > >     >   >   would care to share any ideas on how you use the
> > > > PositionScore
> > > > >     >   >   function to rank your candidate list (using 
regular
> > > > mode, not
> > > > >     >   >   rotational mode). I've tried combinations of
> > turnover and
> > > > >     volatility,
> > > > >     >   >   but I'd like to try other ideas. I'm not asking 
anyone
> > > > to give
> > > > >     away
> > > > >     >   >   any secrets, and, yes, I am aware of TJ's 
example
> in the
> > > > help
> > > > > file
> > > > >     >   >   (PositionScore = 100 -RSI());), but I was just
> > looking for
> > > > >     more ideas.
> > > > >     >   >   I'm not even sure if this question is too vague 
or
> not.
> > > > If it
> > > > >     is, I'm
> > > > >     >   >   sure you'll tell me. TIA.
> > > > >     >   >   >
> > > > >     >   >   > Al Venosa
> > > > >     >   >   > advenosa@xxxx
> > > > >     >   >   >
> > > > >     >   >   >
> > > > >     >   >   > ---
> > > > >     >   >   > Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
> > > > >     >   >   > Checked by AVG anti-virus system
> > > (http://www.grisoft.com).
> > > > >     >   >   > Version: 6.0.543 / Virus Database: 337 - 
Release
> Date:
> > > > >     11/21/2003
> > > > >     >   >
> > > > >     >   >
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