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[amibroker] Understanding Portfolio Backtest Reports ..was..Re: PositionScore Ideas



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Also,

>From a statistical standpoint, assuming an even chance of loss or 
gain on an investment, low-volatility investments offer significantly 
higher returns than do high-volatility strategies. A low-volatility 
trading system beats a high-volatility system 70% to 80% of the time 
when given the same sequence of trading results. In winning systems, 
however, game theory shows that once the probability of winning 
exceeds 56%, high-volatility strategies prevail. - by Mark G. Levey 
is a senior researcher with the law firm of Cameron & Hornbostel in 
Washington, DC.

rgds, Pal
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "palsanand" <palsanand@xxxx> wrote:
> Also,
> 
> Dangers Of The True Optimal f 
> 
> Do Equations Tell The Whole Story? 
> 
> by Gordon Gustafson 
> 
> --------------------------------------------------------------------
--
> ----------
> 
> Success in systems trading depends on having good trading systems 
and 
> good money management practices. Optimal f can help you. 
> Once you have a good trading system, wouldn't it be wonderful if 
you 
> had an equation you could plug into a system to discover the 
perfect 
> amount to risk on each trade? All you'd have to do would be to plug 
> the results into a risk calculation and relax, knowing that the 
> chances of ever losing again were practically nil. 
> 
> It's a nice idea. But the fact of the matter? Such equations could 
> easily lead you astray. 
> 
> OPTIMAL F
> 
> When it comes to money management, one of the most popular topics 
is 
> optimal f. Based on the historical results of a trading system, 
> optimal f defines the optimal fixed fraction of total trading 
capital 
> that should be allocated to any particular trade in order to 
maximize 
> the geometric growth of the account. Dividing this by the largest 
> loss results in the number of contracts that should be traded. 
> According to this rationale, if you bet more you will go broke, and 
> if you bet less, you will stay poor. 
> 
> Arguments made for the optimal f sound so positive - maximum 
> geometric return! - you feel like a fool if you don't use it. Who 
> doesn't want maximum account growth? Money management means 
devising 
> a way to stay in the game. If there is a reasonable chance of going 
> bust, then you need to adjust the amount of capital to trade lower. 
> There will always be a chance of losing the account if you trade, 
but 
> you should work to make sure the chances are small.
> 
> win%	loss%	Optimal f %
> 51	49	2
> 52	48	4
> 53	47	6
> 54	46	8
> 55	45	10
> 56	44	12
> 57	43	14
> 58	42	16
> 59	41	18
> 60	40	20
> 61	39	22
> 62	38	24
> 63	37	26
> 64	36	28
> 65	35	30
> 66	34	32
> 67	33	34
> 68	32	36
> 69	31	38
> 70	30	40
> 71	29	42
> 72	28	44
> 73	27	46
> 74	26	48
> 75	25	50
> 76	24	52
> 77	23	54
> 78	22	56
> 79	21	58
> 80	20	60
> 81	19	62
> 82	18	64
> 83	17	66
> 84	16	68
> 85	15	70
> 86	14	72
> 87	13	74
> 88	12	76
> 89	11	78
> 90	10	80
> 91	9	82
> 92	8	84
> 93	7	86
> 94	6	88
> 95	5	90
> 96	4	92
> 97	3	94
> 98	2	96
> 99	1	98
> 100	0	100
> 
> 
> Figure 1: True optimal f. A really good system could actually wipe 
> you out completely.
> 
> Also,
> 
> Buy-And-Hold Comparisons To Evaluate Stock Trading
> 
> --------------------------------------------------------------------
--
> ----------
> by Jack Schwager 
> 
> --------------------------------------------------------------------
--
> ----------
> Benchmark comparisons are a standard technique for the performance 
of 
> a trading system. One particular benchmark is the buy-and-hold 
> approach. This noted market analyst looks at the steps to using it. 
> --------------------------------------------------------------------
--
> ----------
> Just because a trading system makes money in the stock market 
doesn't 
> mean it's a good system. After all, it is possible for a system to 
do 
> well but still fall short of the results that could have been 
> realized by a simple buy-and-hold approach. The key question in 
> testing a stock market system is: How does the system compare with 
> the buy-and-hold approach? 
> 
> 
> FIGURE 1: DUPONT DE NEMOURS & CO. Each time the constant share size 
> system flashes a buy or sell signal, the new trade has a unique 
> number of shares for the trade entered. Therefore, the buy-and-hold 
> system must have the number of shares held adjusted to match the 
> number of shares held by the the constant share system.
> THE PROBLEM 
> Answering this question is not as simple as it might appear. In my 
> previous article, we showed why a constant share size trade 
> assumption led to severe distortions in testing trading systems and 
> why a constant dollar trade size assumption was far preferable. The 
> problem, however, is that system results based on a constant dollar 
> trade size -- for example, $1,000 -- cannot be directly compared 
with 
> buy-and-hold results for the same number of shares as the first 
> trade. 
> 
> To understand why, assume a stock is trading at $5 at the start of 
> the test period before it then advances to $50 by the end of the 
> survey period. In this case, 200 shares, which equal $1,000 at the 
> start, would equal $10,000 at the end. In contrast, the constant 
> dollar trade size system results would continue to assume a $1,000 
> trade size on each signal. 
> 
> As a result, the buy-and-hold case would assume a much larger 
average 
> position size as time elapsed. Consequently, a comparison between 
the 
> system results and buy-and-hold results would be that of the 
> proverbial apples and oranges. 
> 
> A TWO-STEP SOLUTION 
> 
> Two possible adjustment methods can be used to allow valid 
> comparisons between trading system results and buy-and-hold 
results. 
> 
> Method 1 „ Adjust the constant share system trade size to reflect 
> equity growth. This can be done by compounding the number of shares 
> per trade using a factor based on the current equity. Multiply the 
> ratio of $1,000/price by the ratio of current equity to the assumed 
> starting equity. If the starting equity equals $1,000, then this 
> factor ratio is equal to ($1,000 + net profit)/$1,000. Therefore, 
the 
> number of shares is given by this formula: 
> 
> Number of shares = ($1,000/price)($1,000 + Net profit)/$1,000 
> 
> Thus, if the system made $2,000, the second factor in the equation 
> would equal 3, because there would be $3,000 available instead of 
> $1,000. This approach breaks down if the loss exceeds $1,000, since 
> it would result in a negative equity ratio, which in turn would 
imply 
> a negative number of shares -- a nonsensical result. 
> 
> Next, we will need a percent return comparison with the buy-and-
hold 
> case, which should use a compounded percent return statistic. This 
is 
> given by the following formula: 
> 
> Compounded percent return = 100(Net profit/$1,000) 
> 
> 
> --------------------------------------------------------------------
--
> ----------
> Jack Schwager is the author of the best-sellers Market Wizards and 
> The New Market Wizards, as well as other works. His most recent is 
a 
> 12-tape video course, Jack Schwager's Complete Guide To Designing 
And 
> Testing Trading Systems, which was produced with Omega Research. 
> Schwager is the CEO of Wizard Trading, a CTA firm that began 
managing 
> client funds in 1990 and is currently associated with the Phoenix-
> based CTA Trendstat. His previous experience also includes 22 years 
> as the director of futures research for some of Wall Street's 
leading 
> firms.
> 
> 
> rgds, Pal
> 
> 
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "palsanand" <palsanand@xxxx> 
wrote:
> > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/message/49959
> > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/message/53334
> > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/message/53439
> > 
> > rgds, Pal
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Gary A. Serkhoshian" 
> > <serkhoshian777@xxxx> wrote:
> > > Phsst,
> > >  
> > > I'll just carry forward what others have shared, but I'd love 
to 
> > read responses from Fred, Chuck, Howard, and Mark in terms of 
their 
> > opinions and usage if they have the time/inclination.
> > >  
> > > The big headline to share is on Sharpe and UPI, IMHO.  Both are 
> > risk-adjusted measures of the equity curve, but look at it from 
> > different perspectives.  Sharpe penalizes both positive and 
> negative 
> > volatility, whereas UPI penalizes only negative volatility (i.e. 
> > drawdowns).  For this reason, I choose to look at UPI becuase I 
> > personally don't mind positive volatility (ie. big gains in short 
> > period of time).  CAR/MaxDD is a quick, back of the envelope 
> > calculation that will get you in the same ballpark as UPI.
> > >  
> > > Also understand that money market will have the best (i.e. 
> > infinity) Sharpe and UPI because you have no volatility in the 
> equity 
> > curve.  Of course, we are not interested 0.5% CAR so we cast 
aside 
> > MM.  No guts, no glory.
> > >  
> > > Hope this helps,
> > > Gary
> > > 
> > > Phsst <phsst@xxxx> wrote:
> > > Chuck,
> > > 
> > > As you can see, I've changed the Subject because I think we may 
> have
> > > an opportunity thru your questions to get better insight into 
> > reported
> > > figures on the backtester report.
> > > 
> > > If you reply, and I certainly hope that you do, just drop your 
> name
> > > from the Subject.
> > > 
> > > You are right... there are some things very wrong with the 
> backtest
> > > reports that I posted, and I had not noticed them until you 
> pointed
> > > them out.
> > > 
> > > 
> > > Specifically:
> > > 
> > > CR> 1.   Both of them show nice annual returns (89-140%).
> > > 
> > > Annual returns this high should be treated with suspicion and 
> cause
> > > the system developer to be extra vigilant in analyzing the 
> reported
> > > figures. Unfortunately I failed to notice the discrepancies 
that 
> you
> > > noted. You can bet that I'll be more vigilant in the future, 
> looking
> > > specifically at those figures you zeroed in on.
> > > 
> > > 
> > > CR> 2.   Yet, the average p/l is negative (2-4%).
> > > 
> > > I thought I might have made a mistake copying/pasting on this 
> one, 
> > but
> > > I have verified that the actual backtest report contained these 
> > figures.
> > > 
> > > CR> 3.   The Sharpe ratio is negative.
> > > 
> > > I have to plead ignorance here. I've read as much as is 
available 
> in
> > > the documentation relating to the Sharpe ratio (among others). 
But
> > > when I am unable to get a clear idea of exactly how to 
interpret 
> > some
> > > of these metrics then I tend to just ignore them on the 
backtest 
> > report. 
> > > 
> > > I would really like to see a dialog on this forum related to 
the 
> > real
> > > value of Sharpe, Ulcer, etc.
> > > 
> > > CR> 4.   The average win is 3%.
> > > 
> > > Same response as #2.
> > > 
> > > CR> 5.   The average loss is 10-11%.
> > > 
> > > Same response as #2.
> > > 
> > > CR> What's the story???
> > > 
> > > Good question Chuck.
> > > 
> > > In addition to posting this response, I'll send TJ the actual 
> > backtest
> > > report(s) to see if there is a rational explanation for the 
> reported
> > > figures which he could post here, or if it is a genuine bug.
> > > 
> > > If TJ needs the code, I'll be glad to send it to him.
> > > 
> > > If there is a problem with my backtest AFL code, then I'd want 
to
> > > understand what coding conditions could cause this.
> > > 
> > > Anyway, thanks for taking a critical look at the figures.
> > > 
> > > Do you suppose that you and others who have good insight into 
the
> > > reported metrics could help the rest of us better understand 
how 
> to
> > > interpret the last eleven (11) reported figures on the Backtest 
> > Report?
> > > 
> > > Regards,
> > > 
> > > Phsst
> > > 
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Chuck Rademacher"
> > > <chuck_rademacher@x> wrote:
> > > > Phsst,
> > > > 
> > > > There seems to be something radically wrong with your stats 
> > (below):
> > > > 
> > > > 1.   Both of them show nice annual returns (89-140%).
> > > > 
> > > > 2.   Yet, the average p/l is negative (2-4%).
> > > > 
> > > > 3.   The Sharpe ratio is negative.
> > > > 
> > > > 4.   The average win is 3%.
> > > > 
> > > > 5.   The average loss is 10-11%.
> > > > 
> > > > What's the story???
> > > >   -----Original Message-----
> > > >   From: Phsst [mailto:phsst@x...]
> > > >   Sent: Saturday, December 13, 2003 5:31 PM
> > > >   To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > >   Subject: [amibroker] Re: PositionScore Ideas
> > > > 
> > > > 
> > > >   Greg,
> > > > 
> > > >   This backtest comparison is for illustrative purposes only. 
I 
> > make no
> > > >   claims regarding these test results other than the AFL and 
> Setup
> > > >   criteria was identical for both tests. The only difference 
> was 
> > the
> > > >   assignment of PositionScore = QRS versus PositionScore = 
RSW.
> > > > 
> > > >   NOTE:
> > > > 
> > > >   // RSW = .4*(Total Return 13-Week)+.3*(Total Return 26-Week)
> +.3*
> > (Total
> > > >   Return 1-Year)
> > > >   tr13 = 0.4 * (C - Ref(C, -65)) / Ref(C, -65) * 100;
> > > >   tr26 = 0.3 * (C - Ref(C, -130)) / Ref(C, -130) * 100;
> > > >   tr52 = 0.3 * (C - Ref(C, -260)) / Ref(C, -260) * 100;
> > > >   RSW = tr13 + tr26 + tr52;
> > > >   PositionScore = RSW;
> > > > 
> > > >   Date Range 6/1/1995 to Present (No QRS scores exist prior 
to 
> > this)
> > > > 
> > > >   Direct comparison:
> > > > 
> > > >         RSW SCORE            QRS SCORE
> > > >         Long trades            Long trades
> > > >   Initial capital      100000            100000
> > > >   Ending capital      22984180      190338380
> > > >   Net Profit      22884180      190238380
> > > >   Net Profit %      22884.18%      190238.38%
> > > >   Exposure %      94.25%            94.16%
> > > >   Net RAR %      24280.98%      202035.63%
> > > >   Annual Return %      89.07%              142.19%
> > > >   Risk Adj Retn %      94.50%            151.01%
> > > > 
> > > >   All trades      7431 (100.00 %)      7487 (100.00 %)
> > > >   Avg. Profit/Loss      3079.56 25409.16
> > > >   Avg. Profit/Loss %      -4.16%      -2.88%
> > > >   Avg. Bars Held               2.65      2.63
> > > > 
> > > >   Winners               3829 (51.53 %)      4066 (54.31 %)
> > > >   Total Profit      64437022.92      436648089.7
> > > >   Avg. Profit      16828.68      107390.09
> > > >   Avg. Profit %      3.10%            3.13%
> > > >   Avg. Bars Held      2.33            2.33
> > > >   Max. Consecutive      17      17
> > > >   Largest win      978262.15      7798920.06
> > > >   # bars in largest win      2      2
> > > > 
> > > >   Losers      3602 (48.47 %)            3421 (45.69 %)
> > > >   Total Loss      -41552842.92      -246409709.4
> > > >   Avg. Loss      -11536.05      -72028.56
> > > >   Avg. Loss %      -11.88%            -10.03%
> > > >   Avg. Bars Held      2.98            2.99
> > > >   Max. Consecutive      13      12
> > > >   Largest loss      -542767            -4301835.5
> > > >   # bars in largest loss      6      6
> > > > 
> > > >   Max. trade drawdown      -610851.92      -4864832.72
> > > >   Max. trade % drawdown      -98.69%            -99.67%
> > > >   Max. system drawdown      -2119041.36      -15587244.83
> > > >   Max. system % drawdown      -34.68%            -27.63%
> > > >   Recovery Factor      10.8            12.2
> > > >   CAR/MaxDD      2.57            5.15
> > > >   RAR/MaxDD      2.72            5.46
> > > >   Profit Factor      1.55            1.77
> > > >   Payoff Ratio      1.46            1.49
> > > >   Standard Error      2982472.3      25676798.01
> > > >   Risk-Reward Ratio      0.44      0.38
> > > >   Ulcer Index      12.1            7.64
> > > >   Ulcer Performance Index      6.92      17.9
> > > >   Sharpe Ratio of trades      -0.72      -0.86
> > > >   K-Ratio                       1.09      0.93
> > > > 
> > > >   FWIW, I have some other systems / variations that I'll run 
a 
> > RSW vs.
> > > >   QRS comparison on. If there are any notable improvements to 
> the 
> > RSW
> > > >   results, I'll post them.
> > > > 
> > > >   Regards,
> > > > 
> > > >   Phsst
> > > > 
> > > >   --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Greg" <gregbean@xxxx> 
> wrote:
> > > >   > Phsst,
> > > >   >
> > > >   > Yes I think it is (Total Return 13-Week) means (Pct Price 
> > gain in
> > > >   > 13-Weeks). The terms are from ValueLine, I think.
> > > >   > http://www.valueline.com/
> > > >   >
> > > >   > IBD definition of Relative Strength:
> > > >   >
> > > >   >  Relative Price Strength (RS) Rating or Relative 
> StrengthThis 
> > IBD
> > > >   SmartSelect® Corporate Rating measures each stock's price 
> > performance
> > > >   over the latest twelve months compared to all other stocks. 
> The 
> > rating
> > > >   scale ranges from 1 (lowest) to 99 (highest). Stocks rating 
> > below 70
> > > >   indicate weaker or more laggard relative price performance.
> > > >   > http://www.investors.com/
> > > >   >
> > > >   >
> > > >   > Greg
> > > >   >
> > > >   >   ----- Original Message -----
> > > >   >   From: Phsst
> > > >   >   To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > >   >   Sent: Saturday, December 13, 2003 4:52 PM
> > > >   >   Subject: [amibroker] Re: PositionScore Ideas
> > > >   >
> > > >   >
> > > >   >   Greg,
> > > >   >
> > > >   >   I'll be happy to do a comparison on just about anything 
> that
> > > might be
> > > >   >   comparable to IDB's RS Rank.
> > > >   >
> > > >   >   I assume that (Total Return 13-Week) means (Pct Price 
> gain 
> > in
> > > >   >   13-Weeks), and so on?
> > > >   >
> > > >   >   Worth noting here, that IDB's RS Rank is a score 
between 
> 1 
> > and 100
> > > >   >   that ranks each particular stock against the whole mkt 
> for 
> > the
> > > >   past year.
> > > >   >
> > > >   >   But for positionscore pusposes, we are not limited to a 
> > score
> > > of 1 -
> > > >   >   100, so I can do the raw comparison of results from 
your 
> > formula
> > > >   to QRS.
> > > >   >
> > > >   >   I'll post back later under this same Subject.
> > > >   >
> > > >   >   Regards
> > > >   >
> > > >   >   Phsst
> > > >   >
> > > >   >
> > > >   >   --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Greg" 
<gregbean@xxxx> 
> > wrote:
> > > >   >   > Hi Phsst.
> > > >   >   >
> > > >   >   > Here is a formula that I have been told closely 
follows 
> > that
> > > of IBD.
> > > >   >   Could you please do the comparison you offered ?
> > > >   >   >
> > > >   >   > RSW = .4*(Total Return 13-Week)+.3*(Total Return
> > > 26-Week)+.3*(Total
> > > >   >   Return 1-Year)
> > > >   >   >
> > > >   >   > Thanks,
> > > >   >   > Greg
> > > >   >   >   ----- Original Message -----
> > > >   >   >   From: Phsst
> > > >   >   >   To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > >   >   >   Sent: Saturday, December 13, 2003 1:26 PM
> > > >   >   >   Subject: [amibroker] Re: PositionScore Ideas
> > > >   >   >
> > > >   >   >
> > > >   >   >   Al,
> > > >   >   >
> > > >   >   >   My favorite is the QP2 QRS value (GetExtraData
> ("QRS"). 
> > The
> > > QP2 QRS
> > > >   >   >   value is supposed to be a 'knockoff' of the IBD RS 
> > ranking
> > > score.
> > > >   >   >
> > > >   >   >   I almost always get a significant boost using this 
> > ranking
> > > >   figure as
> > > >   >   >   as the positionscore.
> > > >   >   >
> > > >   >   >   If you do not have QP2, but have any ideas about 
how 
> to 
> > do
> > > >   your own RS
> > > >   >   >   Rank calculation, I'd be happy to run some 
> comparisons 
> > for
> > > you (or
> > > >   >   >   anyone else) to measure your calculated RS Rank 
> against
> > > QP2's QRS
> > > >   >   rank.
> > > >   >   >
> > > >   >   >   Cheers,
> > > >   >   >
> > > >   >   >   Phsst
> > > >   >   >   --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Al Venosa" 
> > <advenosa@xxxx>
> > > >   wrote:
> > > >   >   >   > Hi, all:
> > > >   >   >   >
> > > >   >   >   > I've been experimenting with variuos short term 
> > trading
> > > systems
> > > >   >   >   lately (average trade durations of about 2.5 days), 
> and 
> > I was
> > > >   looking
> > > >   >   >   for ideas on how best to rank a watchlist to get 
the 
> > best
> > > >   candidates
> > > >   >   >   for portfolio trading a basket of 4 stocks. I was 
> > wondering if
> > > >   anyone
> > > >   >   >   would care to share any ideas on how you use the 
> > PositionScore
> > > >   >   >   function to rank your candidate list (using regular 
> > mode, not
> > > >   >   >   rotational mode). I've tried combinations of 
turnover 
> > and
> > > >   volatility,
> > > >   >   >   but I'd like to try other ideas. I'm not asking 
> anyone 
> > to give
> > > >   away
> > > >   >   >   any secrets, and, yes, I am aware of TJ's example 
in 
> the
> > > help file
> > > >   >   >   (PositionScore = 100 -RSI());), but I was just 
> looking 
> > for
> > > >   more ideas.
> > > >   >   >   I'm not even sure if this question is too vague or 
> not. 
> > If it
> > > >   is, I'm
> > > >   >   >   sure you'll tell me. TIA.
> > > >   >   >   >
> > > >   >   >   > Al Venosa
> > > >   >   >   > advenosa@xxxx
> > > >   >   >   >
> > > >   >   >   >
> > > >   >   >   > ---
> > > >   >   >   > Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
> > > >   >   >   > Checked by AVG anti-virus system 
> > (http://www.grisoft.com).
> > > >   >   >   > Version: 6.0.543 / Virus Database: 337 - Release 
> Date:
> > > >   11/21/2003
> > > >   >   >
> > > >   >   >
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