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<SPAN
class=043595603-13122003>Ken, did you see the code I posted in starting this
thread? It's a pretty simple ApplyStop, starting as a stoploss but rising each
bar until it requires more and more profit to stay in. I'm not 100% sure, but I
think it worked as intended, it just wasn't very profitable with the system I
tried it with.
<SPAN
class=043595603-13122003>
<SPAN
class=043595603-13122003>Dave
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
<FONT face=Arial color=navy
size=2><SPAN
>Al/Gary/and
Dave: this is an excellent thread and I read all messages in it before
replying. This came up once in some conversations I had and the idea was
that if the position did not rise a certain percentage in a specified number
of days, then it was sold.
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>Al, it seems like you
are saying to do this with a n-days stop but my question is how do you “turn
off” the n-days stop if in fact the stock price has appreciated enough that
you want to maintain the trade controlled by a trailing
stop???
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>A variation of this
aspect is how do you write a stop that exits if there is less than y
appreciation in the last n days. IOW, many stocks exhibit a “stair-step”
pattern: up for several days in a row, then horizontal (within some upper and
lower consolidation limits) and then up some more, etc.
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>Supposedly, you could
just stay in the trade if it appreciated more than your required y percentage
in the first n days, but what if it just then stagnated. You would want
to put your money elsewhere.
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>My impression is that
complex stops like this need to be programmed manually. I do not see how
you can use the builtin Applystops?? Unless…can these be controlled by
IIF statements? Sitting here trying to write an example and cannot
think how I would do it?
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>Want to see a
“home-brew” of some complex conditions I made up for this and some additional
constraints. This was a nightmare that sort of ran but I abandoned it
for other reasons. This was the section, however, that attempted such a
control of the situation so to speak. I just put some notes in for this
message in purple.
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>Buy1
= <SPAN
>Cross<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>(Blevel,CMO)
<SPAN
>AND<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>
Up;
<SPAN
>Sell1=
EUp;
<SPAN
>Buy<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>=<FONT
face="Courier New" color=blue size=2><SPAN
>ExRem<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>(Buy1,Sell1);
<SPAN
>TimeL=<FONT
face="Courier New" color=blue size=2><SPAN
>BarsSince<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>(<FONT
face="Courier New" color=red size=2><SPAN
>Buy<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>==<FONT
face="Courier New" color=fuchsia size=2><SPAN
>1<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>);<FONT
face="Courier New" color=fuchsia size=2><SPAN
><<Measuring
the time in trade
<SPAN
>BPrice=<FONT
face="Courier New" color=blue size=2><SPAN
>ValueWhen<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>(<FONT
face="Courier New" color=red size=2><SPAN
>Buy<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>==<FONT
face="Courier New" color=fuchsia size=2><SPAN
>1<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>,<FONT
face="Courier New" color=red size=2><SPAN
>O<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>,<FONT
face="Courier New" color=fuchsia size=2><SPAN
>1<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>);
<SPAN
>ChangeL=<FONT
face="Courier New" color=fuchsia size=2><SPAN
>100<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>*(<FONT
face="Courier New" color=red size=2><SPAN
>C<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>-BPrice)/BPrice;<FONT
face="Courier New" color=fuchsia size=2><SPAN
><<Change
in the position since purchase
<SPAN
>TooLongL=TimeL><FONT
face="Courier New" color=fuchsia size=2><SPAN
>15<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>
<SPAN
>AND<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>
ChangeL<<FONT face="Courier New" color=fuchsia
size=2><SPAN
>2<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>;<FONT
face="Courier New" color=fuchsia size=2><SPAN
><<Don’t
keep if <2% gain in 15 days
<SPAN
>TooLongL=<FONT
face="Courier New" color=blue size=2><SPAN
>ExRem<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>(ToolongL,TimeL<<FONT
face="Courier New" color=fuchsia size=2><SPAN
>15<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>);
<SPAN
>StopLossL=<FONT
face="Courier New" color=blue size=2><SPAN
>IIf<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>(<FONT
face="Courier New" color=blue size=2><SPAN
>Cross<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>(-<FONT
face="Courier New" color=fuchsia size=2><SPAN
>13<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>,ChangeL),<FONT
face="Courier New" color=fuchsia size=2><SPAN
>6<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>,<FONT
face="Courier New" color=fuchsia size=2><SPAN
>0<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>);<FONT
face="Courier New" color=fuchsia size=2><SPAN
><<setting
unique code to tell why an exit
<SPAN
>StopLOssL=<FONT
face="Courier New" color=blue size=2><SPAN
>ExRem<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>(StopLossL,<FONT
face="Courier New" color=red size=2><SPAN
>Buy<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>);
<SPAN
>ProfitL=<FONT
face="Courier New" color=blue size=2><SPAN
>IIf<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>(<FONT
face="Courier New" color=blue size=2><SPAN
>Cross<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>(ChangeL,<FONT
face="Courier New" color=fuchsia size=2><SPAN
>10<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>),<FONT
face="Courier New" color=fuchsia size=2><SPAN
>1<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>,<FONT
face="Courier New" color=fuchsia size=2><SPAN
>0<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>);<FONT
face="Courier New" color=fuchsia size=2><SPAN
><<
Profit target met then sell + set code
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>(There
is no trailing stop nor feature to stay with the trailing
stop
<SPAN
>if
the price continues to appreciate, but I suppose that could be added in
<SPAN
>here
somehow, somewhere)
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>ProfitL=<FONT
face="Courier New" color=blue size=2><SPAN
>ExRem<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>(ProfitL,<FONT
face="Courier New" color=red size=2><SPAN
>Buy<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>);
<SPAN
>Above2_15
= <SPAN
>Flip<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>(ChangeL><FONT
face="Courier New" color=fuchsia size=2><SPAN
>2<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>
<SPAN
>AND<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>
TimeL><FONT face="Courier New" color=fuchsia
size=2><SPAN
>15<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>,<FONT
face="Courier New" color=red size=2><SPAN
>Buy<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>);
<SPAN
>Drop2
= Above2_15 <FONT face="Courier New" color=red
size=2><SPAN
>AND<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>
<SPAN
>Cross<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>(<FONT
face="Courier New" color=fuchsia size=2><SPAN
>2<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>,ChangeL);
<SPAN
>Drop2=<FONT
face="Courier New" color=blue size=2><SPAN
>ExRem<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>(Drop2,<FONT
face="Courier New" color=red size=2><SPAN
>Buy<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>);
<SPAN
>Sell<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>
= Sell1 <SPAN
>OR<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>
TooLongL <SPAN
>OR<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>
StopLossL <SPAN
>OR<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>
ProfitL <SPAN
>OR<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>
Drop2;
<SPAN
>Buy<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>=<FONT
face="Courier New" color=blue size=2><SPAN
>ExRem<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>(<FONT
face="Courier New" color=red size=2><SPAN
>Buy<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>,<FONT
face="Courier New" color=red size=2><SPAN
>Sell<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>);
<SPAN
>Sell<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>=<FONT
face="Courier New" color=blue size=2><SPAN
>ExRem<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>(<FONT
face="Courier New" color=red size=2><SPAN
>Sell<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>,<FONT
face="Courier New" color=red size=2><SPAN
>Buy<FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
>);
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>Talk about
inefficient coding logic!!! LOL You can tell I am a brute force kind of clunky
coder; some of the experts here would reduce this to several lines. LOL
again.
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>Can a series of
Applystops do this???? I doubt it.
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>Ken
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>-----Original
Message-----From: Al Venosa
[mailto:advenosa@xxxxxxxxxxxx] <SPAN
>Sent: Friday, December 12, 2003 7:02
PMTo:
amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx<SPAN
>Subject: Re: [amibroker] exiting flat
positions
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>I don't remember, either. Sorry. I simply remember
that if their expected trend faltered but the price still didn't trigger a max
stoploss either, they would get out. I'd have to go back and read it again to
find out what they based it on, but I'm disinclined to do so at the moment. I
suspect, as you did, that it was based on ATR in some way (like if the price
didn't move by 1 or 2 ATR in 2 weeks, exit). You're welcome about the money
mgt. stuff. It's kind of a passion with me.
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>I'm not sure MFE would do the trick, either. MFE is
the maximum favorable excursion (upward price movement if long), and Dave's
example was when the price wasn't doing diddly squat. Unless you mean that, if
the price didn't reach, say, 0.5*MFE by, say, 1 week from now, get out. Is
that what you mean? Don't know the answer.
<SPAN
>
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
<SPAN
>----- Original Message -----
<FONT face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
>From:<FONT
face=Arial size=2> <A
title=serkhoshian777@xxxxxxxxx href="">Gary
A. Serkhoshian
<SPAN
>To:<FONT
face=Arial size=2> <A
title=amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<SPAN
>Sent:<FONT
face=Arial size=2> Friday,
December 12, 2003 6:29 PM
<SPAN
>Subject:<FONT
face=Arial size=2> Re:
[amibroker] exiting flat positions
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>Hi Al,
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>Not to sound Clintonesque, but how did the turtles
define "move" as in "they set 2 or maybe 3 weeks to get out if the price
just didn't move at all". I think it was ATR based as were most of
their targets and stops. Don't quite remember.
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>Maybe MFE is the answer? Just thinking aloud, and
sucking up everyone's extra bandwidth. BTW, thanks for posting all
that stuff on Tharpe. Very helpful.
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>Kind Regards,
<SPAN
>Gary<SPAN
>Al Venosa
<advenosa@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
<SPAN
>Gary:
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>Well, if the stock doesn't move as you expected it
to by a certain time period, you just exit and get into another trade. The
Turtles used that technique. I think they set 2 or maybe 3 weeks to get
out if the price just didn't move at all. Assuming all other system
signals are in place at the time of the buy, I don't see any reason for
not setting a time-based exit if the stock simply doesn't behave the way
it's supposed to. The position performance simply failed, and since no
stoploss has been triggered, you would just stagnate if you stayed in the
trade, so prudence says get out and wait for the next signal on another
stock. You're right, though: lots of options, no clear solutions.
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>AV
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
<SPAN
>----- Original Message -----
<FONT face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
>From:<FONT
face=Arial size=2> <A
title=serkhoshian777@xxxxxxxxx
href="">Gary A. Serkhoshian
<SPAN
>To:<FONT
face=Arial size=2> <A
title=amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<SPAN
>Sent:<FONT
face=Arial size=2>
Friday, December 12, 2003 6:08 PM
<SPAN
>Subject:<FONT
face=Arial size=2> Re:
[amibroker] exiting flat positions
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>Hi Al,
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>I thought about that, too. However, it
seems that a time-based stop doesn't tackle the heart of the issue which
is position performance (or lack thereof).
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>Maybe gate the either a time stop or the stop
Dave proposed if a certain performance threshold hasn't been met by a
given time. But then, that gets us back to determining an
intra-trade performance measure which seems to be the fundamental
question.
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>If the methodology is completely systematized,
this lack of performance will show up in the equity curve, and assuming
we have broken below some minimum threshold objective
function for the OOS results maybe it's time to trip the circuit
breaker on the system?
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>Seems like a multitude of options with no one,
clear solution.
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>Regards,
<SPAN
>Gary
<SPAN
><SPAN
>Al Venosa
<advenosa@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
<SPAN
>Dave:
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>Why not try a simple Nbar exit,
like:
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>nBar=Optimize("nbar",6,1,15,1);
ApplyStop( stopTypeNBar, stopModeBars, nbar);
<SPAN
>I don't know what your average trade duration
is, but whatever it is, you can set Nbar to get you out at some time
point near your average trade length (or min or max or whatever) if
the stock does not move. This plus the combination of a max stoploss
to get you out if the stock moves against you and a trailing stop to
get you out with a profit or a profit target stop might get you what
you want.
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>Al Venosa
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
<SPAN
>----- Original Message
-----
<FONT face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
>From:<FONT
face=Arial size=2>
Dave
Merrill
<SPAN
>To:<FONT
face=Arial size=2>
<A title=amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<SPAN
>Sent:<FONT
face=Arial size=2>
Friday, December 12, 2003 5:39 PM
<SPAN
>Subject:<FONT
face=Arial size=2>
RE: [amibroker] exiting flat positions
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>Hi
Gary, I saw your EI post and want to investigate, but unless I'm
misunderstanding something, that's not the issue I'm trying to get
at. It seems like you'd use EI to put you in stocks that
move without big changes in volatility, which I'd think would allow
more tailored stops, among other things.
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>What
I'm wondering about is positions that don't move at all, or stop
moving after you've held them a while. For instance, say you get a
great bump up immediately after entry, then it just sits there flat.
Doesn't hit a stop since it's not falling, didn't go high enough to
hit a target if you have one, just sits.
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>My
code was an effort at kicking positions like that out the door at
some point, so their capital can be used for other things. It didn't
test out profitably in the context I checked it though. Not sure
what that means.
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>Dave
<SPAN
>
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
<SPAN
>I like your code, and your idea. In
terms of an alternative, Al posted Tharpe's Efficiency Index which
addresses chop. Here's his code and explaination.
Regards,
<SPAN
>Gary
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>Effiency Index (EI) = (C -
ref(C,-x)/ATR(x)
<SPAN
>An efficient stock is a stock whose price
movements are high relative to its volatility changes (i.e., the
price change is high but the volatility change is minor). So, if a
stock increases by 3 points while its volatility only increases a
little, that's good because it gives you greater profitability at
a given volatility.
<SPAN
>I think the way you would use it would be
as a boolean Buy (or Short) qualifier. In other words, something
like this:
<SPAN
>Buy = <your normal buy rules> AND EI
> y; //where y is an optimizable
variable.
<SPAN
><SPAN
>Dave Merrill
<dmerrill@xxxxxxx>
wrote:
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
<SPAN
>Obviously, losses are a problem. But so
are positions that hang in there<FONT
face="Courier New" size=2><SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New">forever taking up available cash but going
nowhere, without hitting profit<FONT
face="Courier New">targets or
stops.How would
you code that, assuming you're dealing with a system that tries
todump losers but
let winners run as long as they're
advancing.I
tried starting from a modest stoploss, with the stop percentage
advancingevery day
until it becomes negative, enforcing the requirement to make
aprofit or get off
the bus. I'm not certain, but I think it's working,
justnot very
profitable in the context I tried
it:.Here's the
code:<FONT
face="Courier New">----------------<FONT
face="Courier New">bars_since_buy = NZ(BarsSince(buy),
BarCount);<FONT
face="Courier New">bars_since_short = NZ(BarsSince(short),
BarCount);<FONT
face="Courier New">bars_since_entry = IIf(bars_since_buy <
bars_since_short, bars_since_buy,<FONT
face="Courier New">bars_since_short);<FONT
face="Courier New">stoploss_rise = Optimize("stoploss rise", .5,
.1, 1, .1);stoploss
= 13 - (stoploss_rise *
bars_since_entry);<FONT
face="Courier New">ApplyStop(stopTypeLoss, stopModePercent,
stoploss, false, true, 0);<FONT
face="Courier New">----------------<FONT
face="Courier New">Anyone see any problems with the
implementation? Any other ideas for<FONT
face="Courier New">avoiding sitting in stagnant
positions?<FONT
face="Courier New">Dave<FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>Send BUG
REPORTS to bugs@xxxxxxxxxxxxx<FONT
face="Courier New" size=2><SPAN
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