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Yuki,
My market timer was Short on Dec12 [after the Oct21 Short !!] and
will buy again in 15 bars.
Serious or not, take a look at this Nikkei clock, a double price for
this year was not bad at all...
STARTBUY=DateNum()==1030131;
STARTSELL=DateNum()==1030217;
Buy=BarsSince(STARTBuy)%25==0;
Sell=BarsSince(STARTSell)%28==0;
Short=Sell;Cover=Buy;
Dimitris Tsokakis
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx> wrote:
> Interesting time perhaps to revisit the "H&S" this fall on the
> Nikkei.
>
> You can see after the neckline broke last month we got quite a down
> draft, but we did not achieve a "measured" distance below the
> neckline. Moreover, we did a U-turn in the space of about 5 trading
> days.
>
> It looked to me like a classic neckline becomes resistance around
the
> 10,200 level, and it well might have. But on Friday November 28,
> after the market closed, the government announced it was
> nationalizing a large regional bank, and that the shares would be
> taken by the government for free -- the first time this has
happened.
> On Monday December first, we opened lower and dived. But there was
a
> violent reversal in the futures market about an hour into trading
> that day, and the Osaka Boyz decided we were going higher, and then
> some. It turned into a huge outside reversal day. At that point, I
> got interested in the long side again, although I did not enter. I
> was waiting for the flag formation after the thrust day to resolve
> itself, and even thought I thought higher was stupid, I thought we
> were going higher. If the flag had triggered long, it also would
> have taken out the intermediate down trend line.
>
> I guess not.
>
> We had a very bad day today, much worse than what you could blame on
> the employment report on Friday. The Osaka Boyz said "Down!" today,
> and they didn't let up at all until about 5 minutes before the bell.
>
> My short term system lit up like a Christmas tree on the short side
> today, but I took no positions (the joy of discretionary trading).
I
> think they certainly over did it today, however, the formation sure
> doesn't look very bullish to me at all. Actually, I smell a little
> blood again. I just don't think tomorrow's open, where I would
> normally kill these short positions, will be that bad.
>
> A note on this: Most of us have made our money for the year, and I
> don't think anyone is taking on much risk right now. You can see
the
> volume has gone to hell. In fact, I put a little circle around two
> apparent volume spikes on the chart. Ignore them completely
however;
> they do not really exist. What happened was that the bank that
went
> under could not trade until Wednesday the 3rd (went lock limit down
> on the open on both the 1st and 2nd). Then, hundreds of millions of
> shares (40 percent of the volume total on Wednesday, even) changed
> hands for pennies. That's about over now.
>
> I'm still looking for a great entry for a couple of positions in
this
> market. I'm still waiting. I'm still eyeing that 200 day, which is
> about 9,350 right now. That also puts it in the August pull back
> zone, which would be a nice area to think about shopping in.
>
> If the US falls hard tonight, I'll be crying in my grapefruit
> tomorrow morning. As I say, I passed on a fair number of short
> signals. I'm just tidying up for the year though -- the only big
> thing I would do right now would be on the long side. Just not yet
I
> think.
>
> Yuki
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