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This is what is so tough about reversal formation, and speaks to the asymmetry of markets. Up moves take forever to die, and can go through several spasms before finally rolling over.
Perhaps Yuki can tell us what warning signs were here to indicate the stock wasn't ready to rollover.
Regards,
GaryDimitris Tsokakis <TSOKAKIS@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
It is interesting to watch the false readings.
BA fulfills any H&S requirement, even the Volume expansion at the touch with the neck line.
The Peaks average is 53% higher than the recent lows, volumes are higher in the left shoulder area etc.
The touch with the neckline was the opportunity to go Short.
[aggressive traders would do that b e f o r e the touch]
The expected target was quite tempty, promissing more than 20% short profits.
The slope of the neckline was quite positive, another good reason for a change of the main trend.
The floor should agree with the predictions and the floor had a different opinion.
Instead of breaking the neckline, we have had an excellent gapup and the next 15 bars are still ...abandoned babies.
----- Original Message -----
From: Dimitris Tsokakis
To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Thursday, November 20, 2003 9:53 AM
Subject: Enhanced H&S pattern, I
The previous H&S requirements were:
1. Last peak P3 not more than back=100 bars ago
2. From P1 to P3 not more than inter=200 bars.
3. abs(H1-H3)<0.02*(H1+H3), the difference of the shoulders to be less then 1% os the shoulders average
I try to consider two new requirements
4. More than 2 main Volume peaks from P1 up to P2
5. The average of the peaks to be +30% greater than the recent [2*inter] lows.[this will imply factor>1.3]
Some results from the n=1 last quotations for N100 [the ^N225 index is included for comparison] may come from the code
// Enhanced H&S pattern , experimental
per = 3;x = Cum(1);back=100;inter=200;s11=H;R=0;/* H & S */pR = PeakBars( s11, per, 1 ) == 0;endt1= LastValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, R+1 ));medt1=LastValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, R+2));startt1=LastValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, R+3 ));dt1=endt1-startt1;C1=x==endt1 OR x==medt1 OR x==startt1;endR = LastValue(ValueWhen( pR, s11, R+1 ) );medR=LastValue(ValueWhen( pR, s11, R+2 ) );startR = LastValue( ValueWhen( pR, s11, R+3 ));Filter1=medR>endR AND medR>startR AND abs(startR-endR)<0.02*(startR+endR) ANDdt1<inter AND endt1>LastValue(x)-back;perc=10; M=MA(V,5);Vmax=LastValue(HHV(V,LastValue(x)-startt1));Vpeak=Zig(m,perc)==Peak(m,perc);Pn=Cum((x>startt1 AND x<endt1+10)*Vpeak) ;HSvol=Filter1 AND Pn>2;Cond=(endR+startR+medR)>1.3*LLV(C,2*inter);Filter=Filter1 ;// explore for the n=1 last
quotationsAddColumn(Pn,"Peaks",1.0);AddColumn((endR+startR+medR)/3,"AvgH");AddColumn(LLV(C,2*inter),"Lowest");AddColumn(Column1/Column2,"factor");
My thought is to add
Pn>2;
factor>1.3;
to the basic filter1 condition.
I would appreciate your comments on the new requirements.Dimitris TsokakisSend BUG REPORTS to bugs@xxxxxxxxxxxxxSend SUGGESTIONS to suggest@xxxxxxxxxxxxx-----------------------------------------Post AmiQuote-related messages ONLY to: amiquote@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx (Web page: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amiquote/messages/)--------------------------------------------Check group FAQ at: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/files/groupfaq.html Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service. > ATTACHMENT part 2 image/gif name=BA.gif
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Send BUG REPORTS to bugs@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Send SUGGESTIONS to suggest@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
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