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Lots of talk lately about Optimization, Overoptimization,
Robustivity, Randomness, etc. Regarding optimization here is a copy
of an email I sent to a FastTrack friend of mine recently....don't
know if it makes any sense or not.
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You know, most all systems depend on optimization at some level but
one day when I was in a dreamy mood, (perhaps muscatel induced), this
analogy with regards to optimization popped into my head. Takes a
little imagination....
Suppose a person decided to take a one mile walk through a well treed
area of woods. He would have no trouble negotiating the path since
the trees are quite visible and he could navigate a path right around
them.
Suppose further that he had been carrying some kind of an electronic
recorder with him (this is the part that takes a little imagination)
and every step along the one mile stretch was recorded.
Still feeling energetic he decides to pick up where he left off and
try another one mile hike through the next stretch of woods. He
reasons that it's not necessary to look for an unobstructed path, at
least not as carefully as he did on the first stretch, because after
all he has a recording of the whole journey and all he has to do is
put it in the "play it again Sam" mode.
The analogy doesn't have a very happy ending....he got through the
second mile alive but just barely....you would hardly recognize him.
But to be fair there is a difference between trees that, as far as we
know, grow randomly and the stock market which arguably isn't totally
random as many claim.
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I guess my friend got the email OK but his only response was "watch
out for the trees".
.....Joe Platt
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