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Yuki,
I think I see your point.
It would help so much if you give me another H&S [or invH&S] example
from the past ^N225 history and I could follow you better.
Dimitris Tsokakis
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx> wrote:
> Hi DT,
>
> Monday, November 17, 2003, 11:01:38 PM, you wrote:
>
> DT> I know we shall never agree on the H&S criteria, if we speak
for more
> DT> than 2 persons [I disagree even with my code, sometimes].
> DT> What I said was to write down *your* point of view [trying to
include
> DT> all requirements, objective or not] and then try to code it.
>
> Hmmm. I see. Well, I can tell you when they catch my attention,
and
> when they don't, in very general terms. Three bumps with the center
> bump higher, just coming along in sort of the normal course of
> things, doesn't impress me at all. I guess for me to see a H&S, I
> also want or need to see some kind of 'body'. (Heads and shoulders,
> after all, must rest on bodies in the real world.) ^_^ And that
> body needs to stand out a bit from the rest of the chart -- a strong
> diagonal, almost vertical rise would make it do that. (IOW, the
> shoulder needs to be a shoulder, not just a speed bump.)
>
> So, a H&S would catch my attention if it came after a run up like we
> had in Tokyo between May and September, but it would be unlikely to
> catch my attention if it came (like the inverted form you mentioned)
> as the market had been kind of scraping along horizontally. Same
> thing with the inverted -- I would want it to come rather soon after
> a fairly sharp decline, to really mean very much to me. And of
> course, if I look at the chart and don't see it within about 2
> seconds, I don't begin to look for it, but just assume it's not
> there. I am very alert to not "create" things which do not exist in
> my chart reading -- I think the human mind is good at this, but it's
> dangerous. The truth is, there is often nothing there that is
> actionable, and if I could impress this one fact on new traders, I
> think I could save them a lot of grief, not to mention money.
>
> This is just my own take on the formation, of course, and means that
> I ignore a lot of them that others might pay attention to. However,
> I have found that the bearish ones that develop quickly after
> sizeable run ups to be pretty strong negative indicators, at least
in
> the short to intermediate term. Something in our nature makes us
> want to buy into these, but they are disasters, usually --
especially
> when you have concurrent indications of trouble (RSI divergences,
A/D
> breakdowns, etc.).
>
> (BTW, we had one of the most negative days I can ever remember
> yesterday on A/D: 59 up on the first section, 1,450 down, just your
> basic 24.5:1 ratio, ^_^ although the secondary stocks and other
> exchanges here were closer to a more normal 10:1 ratio, which is bad
> enough.) And new highs: 3, new lows: 50. I look for a lower test
and
> then a bounce today -- we are in an area where I might test the long
> side very lightly, and for very short term, although another 400
down
> from here would be a piece of cake. It just is likely to be very
> choppy now for a while.
>
> DT> Thank you for the interesting discussion.
>
> No, thank *you* for being such a great contributor to this board.
>
> Yuki
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