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Yuki,
Sweet analysis. Couple of questions for you if you've got the time.
<I put on shorts serious shorts 6 days ago, the first real seriousshorts I've done probably in 3 months.>
This would put your entry on 11/7 or so. Was this driven by the gap down on the prev day?
<Monday shorts covered on the open Tuesday made theentire month in one night last week>
Was closing the position driven by the windfall resulting from the gap or something else you saw?
<I want to buy around 9,600, and I surelyexpect to see that level. Between 9,400 and 9,600 might qualify as a "grail" buy>
Are these fib driven (50% = 9600, 62% = 9400) or something else. Intesting to note that 9400 has some support going back a ways. Anything in particular price pattern wise or other that you'll look for at these levels?
Thanks in advance for your reply.
Kind Regards,
Gary
Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Hi Bob,Saturday, November 15, 2003, 3:10:32 AM, you wrote:BJ> FYI Any comment, Yuki?Sure.I put on shorts serious shorts 6 days ago, the first real seriousshorts I've done probably in 3 months. I saw this (H&S) formingimmediately, and I've played the right shoulder both up and down withgreat success. Monday shorts covered on the open Tuesday made theentire month in one night last week. These were my first seriousshorts in months -- I'd almost abandoned shorting since May, with abrief exception or two, none of much consequence.The neck line will be violated *hard* on Monday's open. Chicago tookour futures 150 or more below the neckline last night (Tokyo time),and that's about where we will open. The measuring aspect of the H&Smight work out just about right, too. That is to say
1,000 off the10,200 level is surely doable. I doubt if it gets completely down tothat level, but it might; and anyone who thinks there is no chance ofit is way too sanguine. I want to buy around 9,600, and I surelyexpect to see that level. Between 9,400 and 9,600 might qualify as a"grail" buy, *if* the recovery story in the US holds, and *if* the USdollar doesn't fall off a cliff, neither of which are givens in mybook.I might buy tentatively at 9,800, too. I ain't buying anything righthere; this is the "that's where it held before; that's where it willhold again" level for the suckers. Ninety-two hundred would begin toscare the hell out of everyone, so that indeed might be the target.^_- I would buy there to hold a while, if we see it; a bad holidayspending season in the US (worse than expected, even if anticipationsturn down) could get us there.The pullback in late July and August was almost satisfying
in termsof level, but not at all satisfying to me in terms of time. Theythey did exactly the same stunt in late September, with an even lesssatisfying dip and immediate rebound, as this thing got frothy beyondthe pale. (Hey, that's what markets do; and if you think the pricesthat Japanese banks are selling for compared to what they wereselling for 6 months ago isn't froth, I have many bridges for sale.)So, a lot of the retail people who have been sucked in now areprobably looking for a bounce here. They are the ones likely to getbounced, right along with the other less nimble who entered on theright shoulder, and those still holding from the head.Already, there is the beginning of massive pain on the retail/small,margined investor side. Have a look at long/short balances on marginin Tokyo, realize that these latest stats are about a week old ormore, and then realize that margin traders, by and large,
aresuddenly about 75 meters down with about 10 seconds of oxygen left.There is going to be some long margin liquidation next week on painof collateral call, and it may get out of hand a bit. The "generals"are not usually in the business of bailing out weak, margined longs.^^_^^Needless to say, the US market is blowing its own bubbles again rightnow, IMHO. It's hard to say which is going to lead the other lower,but it's a very interesting question. In fact, oddly, I was thinkingof asking this very question in an original thread. ^_^ This week,the Japanese "generals" seem to know which way the US is heading oneday early. That's not always the case of course, but it has been asof late. Or are the US "generals" just following? ^^_^^As we all know though, markets overshoot in both directions.Expecting a round number like 10,000 to hold, especially when it'sbeen crisscrossed so many
times in the recent past, is likely to be asucker's bet. I'd pick a number below that which I might expect tohold (my pick would be ~9600 give or take), and then add theovershoot factor to it (which would make me think I can buy 200 to400 points lower, just as the last margined longs are asphyxiating.^^_^^Remember, we have 3-1 leverage on equities here. A lot of folksunderestimate the downside risk. They may be about ready to geteducated.All of this only means (to me) that we are entering or are in acorrection phase right now. I suspect long will be the place to bewhen it ends, but I think it may be longer and deeper than some maybe ready for. There simply hasn't been one in the US, really, sincethis rally got underway. You can't just "walk off" overbought timeafter time after time. Eventually you get a good scare, and we allare due for one I
think.Best,YukiSend BUG REPORTS to bugs@xxxxxxxxxxxxxSend SUGGESTIONS to suggest@xxxxxxxxxxxxx-----------------------------------------Post AmiQuote-related messages ONLY to: amiquote@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx (Web page: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amiquote/messages/)--------------------------------------------Check group FAQ at: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/files/groupfaq.html Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.
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